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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Southwest CASC ____FY 2014 Projects
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Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3417/2017006): The Earth system is undergoing rapid, profound anthropogenic change. The primary axes of change include not only the climate system, but also the spread of invasive species, altered biogeochemical and hydrological cycles, modified disturbance regimes, and land degradation and conversion. These factors are influencing the distribution of species and the structure and function of ecosystems worldwide, interacting with climatic stressors that may preclude the persistence of many current species distributions and communities. Ecological disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks can interact with climate variability to precipitate abrupt change...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Fire,
Southwest CASC
Abstract (from AMS100): Between water years 2012 and 2017, the Truckee–Carson river system in the western United States experienced both historic-low and record-high Sierra Nevada snowpack, anomalously warm temperatures, and winter and spring flooding. As part of an ongoing collaborative modeling research program in the river system, researchers conduct annual interviews with key local water managers to characterize local climate adaptation strategies and implementation barriers, and identify science information needs to prioritize ongoing research activities. This article presents new findings from a third wave of interviews conducted with the same water managers following the historic 2017 wet year. Comparison...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Southwest CASC
Abstract (from AMS): The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067613/full): This empirical study examines the influence of precipitation, temperature, and antecedent soil moisture on upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) water year streamflow over the past century. While cool season precipitation explains most of the variability in annual flows, temperature appears to be highly influential under certain conditions, with the role of antecedent fall soil moisture less clear. In both wet and dry years, when flow is substantially different than expected given precipitation, these factors can modulate the dominant precipitation influence on streamflow. Different combinations of temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Colorado River,
Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southwest CASC,
Abstract (from RMetS): Over the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB), temperatures in widely used gridded data products do not warm as much as mean temperatures from a stable set of U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) stations, located at generally lower elevations, in most months of the year. This is contrary to expectations of elevation‐dependent warming, which suggests that warming increases with elevation. These findings could reflect (a) a genuine absence of elevation‐dependent warming in the region, (b) systematic non‐climatic influences on either the USHCN stations or high‐elevation stations, including known inhomogeneities related to changes in the time of observation and instrumentation, or (c) suppression...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from PLOS ONE): The responses of individuals and populations to climate change vary as functions of physiology, ecology, and plasticity. We investigated whether annual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation was associated with relative abundances of breeding bird species at local and regional levels in southern California, USA, from 1968–2013. We tested our hypotheses that abundances were correlated positively with precipitation and negatively with temperature in this semiarid to arid region. We also examined whether responses to climate varied among groups of species with similar land-cover associations, nesting locations, and migratory patterns. We investigated relations between seasonal...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Southwest CASC
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
A new satellite-derived low cloud retrieval reveals rich spatial texture and coherent space-time propagation in summertime California coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Throughout the region, CLC is greatest during May–September but has considerable monthly variability within this summer season. On average, June is cloudiest along the coast of southern California and northern Baja, Mexico, while July is cloudiest along northern California's coast. Over the course of the summer, the core of peak CLC migrates northward along coastal California, reaching its northernmost extent in late July/early August, then recedes while weakening. The timing and movement of the CLC climatological structure is related to the summer evolution...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Cloud Cover,
Coastal,
Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-2003-4): In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Climate Change,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Emergency preparedness,
Extreme Weather,
Floods,
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Northwest CASC,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Wetlands
We aimed to improve the scientific capacity to estimate climate extremes, evaluate their effects on natural resources, and enhance a platform for derivation of and access to customized climate information for the full extent of the Southwest. Extreme climate can have substantial effects on species, ecological and evolutionary processes, and the health of visitors to public lands. Researchers generally can specify the climate-extreme metrics, and the extents and resolutions of those metrics, most relevant to their scientific objectives and the practical applications of their work. However, such application-specific data rarely are available. We screened global climate models (GCMs) on the basis of their realism...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Southwest CASC
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0167.1): Annual precipitation in California is more variable than in any other state and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months. A primary question among stakeholders is whether low precipitation in certain months is a harbinger of annual drought in California. Historical precipitation data from 1895 to 2013 are investigated to identify leading monthly indicators of annual drought in each of the seven climate divisions (CDs) as well as statewide. For this study, drought conditions are defined as monthly/annual (October–September) precipitation below the 20th/30th percentile, and a leading indicator is defined as a monthly drought...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Southwest CASC,
climate variability,
Abstract (from Wiley): With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree‐ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from SpringerLink): This paper presents the first record of fire in Pacific coast salt marshes; the 1993 Green Meadows Fire and the 2013 Camarillo Springs Fire burned an area of Salicornia-dominated salt marsh at Point Mugu, CA. These fires inspire concern about resiliency of ecosystems not adapted to fire, already threatened by sea-level rise (SLR), and under stress from extreme drought. We monitored vegetation percent cover, diversity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in burned and unburned areas of the salt marsh following the 2013 Camarillo Springs Fire and used remotely sensed Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) analysis to verify the in situ data. Two years following the fire, vegetation percent...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-017-0224-3): Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise depends on marsh plain elevation, tidal range, subsurface processes, as well as surface accretion, of which suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) is a critical component. However, spatial and temporal patterns of inorganic sedimentation are poorly quantified within and across Salicornia pacifica (pickleweed)-dominated marshes. We compared vertical accretion rates and re-examined previously published suspended-sediment patterns during dry-weather periods at Seal Beach Wetlands, which is characterized by a mix of Spartina foliosa (cordgrass) and pickleweed, and for Mugu Lagoon, where cordgrass is rare....
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Extreme Weather,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880717300924): Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Southwest CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Abstract (from SpringerLink): Salt marsh-dependent species are vulnerable to impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Site-specific differences in ecogeomorphic processes result in different SLR vulnerabilities. SLR impacts to Ridgway’s rail (Rallus obsoletus) of Southern California (SC) and San Francisco Bay (SF), U.S.A. could foreshadow SLR effects on other coastal endemic species. Salt marsh vulnerabilities to SLR were forecasted across 14 study sites using the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience, which accounts for changes in above and belowground marsh processes. Changes in suitable habitat for rail were projected with MaxEnt. Under a high (166 cm/100 yr) SLR scenario, current extent of suitable habitat...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The San Francisco Bay has the largest concentration of salt marshes in the state of California. In the last 170 years, the vast majority of the historic tidal wetlands in the Bay have been significantly altered or destroyed due to diking, filling and other processes. Many of the remaining marshes have been impacted by changing sedimentation regimes and related loadings of pollutants such as heavy metals (Sr, Al, Fe, Ti, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn) over this period, making ecological trajectories and resilience to disturbance uncertain. Here we examine changing sediment accretion rates, coupled with the longest and highest resolution heavy metal accumulation data from three San Francisco Bay marshes, to examine European impacts...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Tree mortality is an important outcome of many forest fires. Extensive tree injuries from fire may lead directly to mortality, but environmental and biological stressors may also contribute to tree death. However, there is little evidence showing how the combined effects of two common stressors, drought and competition, influence post‐fire mortality. Geographically broad observations of three common western coniferous trees subjected to prescribed fire showed the likelihood of post‐fire mortality was related to intermediate‐term (10 yr) pre‐fire average radial growth, an important component of tree vigor. Path analysis showed that indices of competition and drought...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Drought,
Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather,
Fire,
Southwest CASC
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