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Operational Earthquake Forecasting – Implementing a Real-Time System for California It is well know that every earthquake can spawn others (e.g., as aftershocks), and that such triggered events can be large and damaging, as recently demonstrated by L’Aquila, Italy and Christchurch, New Zealand earthquakes. In spite of being an explicit USGS strategic-action priority (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2012/1088; page 32), the USGS currently lacks an automated system with which to forecast such events and official protocols for disseminating the potential implications. This capability, known as Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF), could provide valuable situational awareness to emergency managers, the public, and other entities interested in preparing for potentially damaging earthquakes. With the various... Categories: Data, Project; Tags: Active, All Working Groups, California, Earthquakes, Natural Hazards 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Chance of potentially moderate-damage ground shaking in 2018 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Central and Eastern United States These data sets are the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. They represent the chance of experiencing potentially damaging ground shaking for fixed ground shaking levels that corresponds with MMI = VII. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI = VII based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.2152 g for site class D, and the probability of experiencing MMI = VII based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration value of 0.2256 g for site class D. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Catalog of relocated earthquake hypocenters and local velocity model for the 2016 Mw 5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma, sequence This dataset contains the supplemental information for the article "Oklahoma experiences largest earthquake during ongoing regional wastewater injection hazard mitigation efforts" published in Geophysical Research Letters (Yeck and others, 2017). Included is a table of relocated earthquake hypocenters and the velocity model used in the event relocations. These locations form the basis of the analysis presented in the article. Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Pawnee, Oklahoma, USGS, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, earth science, All tags... earthquake hazard, earthquake hazards program, geologic hazards science center, geophysics, hypocenter, seismic hazard, seismology, Fewer tags Modeled and observed magnitude-frequency distribution, Oklahoma-Kansas potential induced earthquake catalog, 2016-2017 The b-value for the earthquake catalog from the Oklahoma-Kansas potentially induced earthquake zone is computed with the maximum likelihood method (MLE) (Aki, 1965). We use the minimum magnitude of completeness that is used for the seismicity rate models (Mc=2.7) and the earthquakes from 2016 and 2017 and find b=1.5 (1.48+/-0.05). However, we find that the b-value from the full (non-declustered) catalog is sensitive to the minimum magnitude of completeness, perhaps due to the moment magnitudes at these values being highly dependent on the conversion relations and the measurements of local magnitudes. Aki, K. (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N= a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthq.... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Chance of potentially minor-damage ground shaking in 2018 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Central and Eastern United States These data sets are the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. They represent the chance of experiencing potentially damaging ground shaking for fixed ground shaking levels that corresponds with MMI = VI. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.1155 g for site class D, and the probability of experiencing MMI = VI based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration value of 0.102 g for site class D. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Modified Mercalli Intensity based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration, with 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. It represents the average Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) with a 1-percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. Using a topographic-based soil classification method, the ground motions are amplified for soil type. The MMI values are the average of the MMI values obtained by converting peak ground acceleration to MMI and 1.0-second spectral response acceleration to MMI. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster Peak ground acceleration with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for peak ground acceleration with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile 0.2-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile 1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Central and Eastern United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Chance of potentially moderate-damage ground shaking in 2018 based on the average of horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period and peak ground acceleration for the Western United States These data sets are the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. They represent the chance of experiencing potentially damaging ground shaking for fixed ground shaking levels that corresponds with MMI = VII. The values are obtained by averaging the probability of experiencing MMI = VII based on a peak ground acceleration value of 0.2152 g for site class D, and the probability of experiencing MMI = VII based on 1.0-second spectral acceleration value of 0.2256 g for site class D. The data are for the Western United States. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Peak ground acceleration with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year for the Western United States This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for peak ground acceleration with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Western United States and are based on the long-term 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model. Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile Understanding Fluid Injection Induced Seismicity Fluid injection induced seismicity has been reported since the 1960s. There are currently more than 150,000 injection wells associated with oil and gas production in 34 states in the conterminous US. Pore pressure disturbance caused by injection is generally considered the culprit for injection induced seismicity, but, not all injection causes seismicity. It is not well understood what mechanical and hydrologic conditions cause some sites to be more prone than others to seismicity. The objectives of this proposed research are to utilize existing data on fluid injection and seismicity to (1) identify spatial and temporal correlations between fluid injection and induced seismicity; (2) conduct a hydro-mechanical modeling... Categories: Data, Project; Tags: All Working Groups, Completed, Energy and Minerals, Natural Hazards, Seismicity, All tags... Water Resources, Fewer tags