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Residents living along the coast of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River have experienced two record-setting floods, one in 2017 and another in 2019. These floods caused tremendous property damage and disruptions to the regional economy. The water levels on Lake Ontario are influenced by the operations of the Moses Saunders Dam on the St. Lawrence River. These operations are determined by the International Joint Commission and are required to balance several competing objectives (e.g., navigation, flood control, recreational boating, hydropower). Recently, the International Joint Commission altered the operational plan to help restore coastal wetlands. The floods of 2017 and 2019 followed soon after, and...
Climate change and associated stressors are expected to greatly impact the ability of forest managers to sustainably manage and conserve forest habitats across the northeastern United States. As a result, adaptation strategies are being developed and applied in many regions to minimize climate change impacts and sustain key forest functions under uncertain future environmental conditions. Given that many of these strategies deviate from traditional approaches to forest management, there is a great need for field evaluations of adaptation in practice to inform long-term planning efforts to address climate change impacts. Similarly, the long timeframes over which forests develop and management actions operate has...
Abstract (from Science Direct): Urban development is a principal driver of landscape change affecting the integrity of ecological systems and the capacity of the landscape to support species. We developed an urban growth model (SPRAWL), evaluated it with hindcasting, and used it to simulate urban growth across the northeastern United States between 2010 and 2080 under four alternative scenarios. In the model, urban growth is constrained by demand for new development for each time step at the subregional scale. Demand is subsequently allocated to local application panes (5 km on a side within 15 km window) using a unique landscape context matching algorithm, such that the more historical development that occurred...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): A central theme of range‐limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high‐latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology—niche theory and predator–prey theory—provides an opportunity to understand how...
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The Northeast United States and Atlantic Canada share many of the same types of forests, wetlands, and natural communities, and from a wildlife perspective the region is one contiguous forest. However, resources are classified and mapped differently on the two sides of the border, creating challenges for habitat evaluation, species modeling, and predicting the effects of climate change. To remedy this, ecologists from The Nature Conservancy collaborated with a committee of scientists from various Canadian institutions to produce the first international map of terrestrial habitats for northeast North America. The project used extensive spatial data on geology, soils, landforms, wetlands, elevation and climate. Additionally,...
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Loss of saltmarsh habitat is one of the biggest threats to coastal sustainability in the Northeast. Salt marsh has been identified as an essential fish and wildlife habitat, and loss of saltmarsh corresponds with precipitous declines in marsh-dependent wildlife. For example, the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrow is predicted to collapse within the next 50 years after experiencing a 9% annual decline across the northeastern U.S. Resource managers require tools to help restore salt marsh habitat for wildlife by adapting marshes to climate change-driven sea level rise. However, adaptation approaches need to be tested and evaluated before widespread application. Researchers are testing a rapidly emerging sea...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
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Building on a strong tradition of collaboration, the College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute (CMN SDI) coordinated a second offering of its Shifting Seasons Summit to bring scientists, practitioners, indigenous people, and students together around the issue of climate change. The summit was developed to specifically unite Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) researchers with American Indian/indigenous practitioners and scientists to better communicate the resources available through the NE CSC, to build awareness of the overall mission of the CSC network, and to provide participants an opportunity to network and learn more about tribal cultural, social, environmental, and economic issues...
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The northeastern U.S. is home to a wide range of terrestrial and aquatic habitats, leading to a variety of interactions occurring between species and climate on multiple scales. Therefore, the most effective strategy to produce and deliver scientific climate information to resource managers is to align the scales of climate projections with the scales of resource management actions. While available downscaled climate data provides information at very fine resolutions (4-6 km), its usability in helping management decisions and its reliability in capturing various regional weather and climate metrics remain unclear. The goal of this project is for researchers to collaborate with State Wildlife Action Plan coordinators...
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This study set out to answer the question: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” To accomplish this, the study gathered existing stream temperature data, identified data gaps, deployed stream temperature monitoring devices, and developed and tested a stream temperature model that could be regionalized across the Northeast domain. We partnered with another funded project team, led by Jana Stewart at WI USGS to collect data from over 10,000 locations across the climate science center domain. This collection effort aided in identifying data gaps where...
Abstract: (from ScienceDirect): Empirical evidence has shown increased variability in harvest and recruitment of exploited fish populations, which can result directly from exploitation or indirectly from interactions between external drivers and the internal dynamics of age-structured populations. We investigated whether predation in a freshwater system could affect a prey fish population, in the same way fishing affects targeted populations. Using fishery-independent trawl survey data and a suite of quantitative indicators, we evaluated changes in the alewife population in Lake Michigan. Our results provide evidence for a reduction in the mean spawner age, a reduction in the diversity of age classes and the distribution...
map background search result map search result map Developing a Comprehensive Terrestrial Habitat Map for the Northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada to Inform Planning Decisions Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Building Tribal Engagement Through the Shifting Seasons Summit Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England Dynamic Climate Adaptation for Wetland Restoration and Coastal Communities on Lake Ontario Enhancing the Reliability and Usability of Climate Change Information for Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeastern United States Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England Dynamic Climate Adaptation for Wetland Restoration and Coastal Communities on Lake Ontario Developing a Comprehensive Terrestrial Habitat Map for the Northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada to Inform Planning Decisions Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Enhancing the Reliability and Usability of Climate Change Information for Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeastern United States Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast