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Aim To provide the first regional analysis of contemporary drivers of Pacific Island fire regimes. Location Islands of Palau, Yap, Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan, Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae. Time Period 1950-present. Methods We used land cover, soil maps and contemporary fire histories to (1) describe the relationships among fire activity, vegetation, rainfall and island geography and population; (2) examine the spatial associations of forest and savanna vegetation with respect to fire and soil types; and (3) link fire and savanna distribution to intra-annual and inter-annual rainfall variability. Results Savanna extent was positively correlated with island age and the range of mean monthly rainfall. The percent of area...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought’s impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use scenarios (low and high) over a 90 year timespan...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Drought is a signifcant climate feature in Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affliated Pacifc Islands (USAPI), at times causing severe impacts across multiple sectors. Below-average precipitation anomalies are often accompanied by higher-than-average temperatures and reduced cloud cover. The resulting higher insolation and evapotranspiration can exacerbate the effects of reduced rainfall. These altered meteorological conditions lead to less soil moisture. Depending on the persistence and severity of the conditions, drier soil can cause plant stress, affecting both agricultural and natural systems. Hydrological effects of drought include reductions in streamfow, groundwater recharge, and groundwater discharge to springs, streams,...
Drought is a prominent feature of Hawaiʻi’s climate. However, it has been over 30 years since the last comprehensive meteorological drought analysis, and recent drying trends have emphasized the need to better understand drought dynamics and multi-sector effects in Hawaiʻi. Here, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of past drought effects in Hawaiʻi that we integrate with geospatial analysis of drought characteristics using a newly developed 100-year (1920–2019) gridded Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dataset. The synthesis examines past droughts classified into five categories: Meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, ecological, and socioeconomic drought. Results show that drought duration and magnitude...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation