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Tidal marsh habitat is at high risk of severe loss and degradation as a result of human uses, sea-level rise, changes in salinity, and more frequent and extreme storms projected by climate models. Availability of habitat is a prerequisite for long-term viability of marsh bird populations and this has been modeled in a companion California Landscape Conservation Cooperative project (Veloz et al. 2011). However, habitat alone will ensure neither resilience nor recovery of depleted and threatened populations. To provide management guidance to reduce species’ vulnerability and recover depleted populations, we developed interactive population dynamic models for four key marsh species: Black Rail, Clapper Rail, Common...
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
The vulnerability of species at risk from climate change is recognized as an important issue in California as well as globally. Assessing vulnerability requires information on the long-term viability of populations and understanding the influences on that viability, due to environmental drivers as well as impacts of management action. We developed population-dynamic models to assess and better understand the long-term population viability of four key, tidal marsh-dependent species, under a variety of environmental conditions, including climate change impacts. In the San Francisco Estuary, each species is represented by one or more subspecies that is entirely or mainly confined to the tidal marsh habitat in the region:...
Priority areas for conservation of tidal marsh birds given current and future environmental conditions. Maps were created using Zonation, a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species and scenarios to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape.The current (2010) and future (2030-2110) prioritization is based upon distribution and abundance models for five tidal marsh bird species which utilized avian observation data (2000 - 2009), a marsh accretion model, and physical variables (e.g. salinity, distance to nearest channel, slope, etc). Values represent the rank in which pixels were removed from the landscape using Zonation Conservation Planning software with...
Marsh accretion was modeled by ESA PWA using the Marsh-98 model, described here. The model assumes that rates of marsh plain elevation change depend on the availability of suspended sediment and organic material, water depth, and duration of inundation periods. If enough suspended sediment is available, then tidal marsh elevations can keep pace with increased inundation. Model outputs were linearly interpolated in 10-cm increments for starting elevations ranging from -3.7 to 1.7 m (relative to mean higher high water, or MHHW), and applied to a composite 5-m elevation grid (see below) for SF Bay. Results for each possible combination of projected sea level rise, sediment and organic material availability, and target...
Densities for five key tidal marsh-dependent bird species were modeled using boosted regression trees (Elith et al. 2008). The models are able to fit non-linear functions between environmental variables and the presence/absence or density of a species. Map values represent the probability of occurrence of a species or the density (birds/ha). Higher values in a map indicate a higher likelihood that a species will be present at a site. Bird species modeled: Common yellowthroat, black rail, clapper rail, marsh wren, song sparrow. Model outputs: Probably of occurrence, density (birds per hectare)
The Future San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes Climate Smart Planning Tool is a web application that enables the user to view and query maps made with projected tidal marsh elevations, vegetation changes, five tidal marsh-dependent bird species distribution probabilities and densities, and current and future conservation prioritization. The map-making tool presents the user with current and future maps side by side, and allows for choices of higher and lower levels of sea level rise, sediment availability, and organic material accumulation. The purpose for using the tool is to support an understanding of how sea level rise may change the extent of tidal marsh habitat and bird species distribution over the next 100 years,...
Maps of the probability of occurrence of tidal marsh plant species were created using generalized additive models (Hastie and Tibshirani 1990). Species modeled: Saltgrass, alkali-heath, SF Bay gumplant, jaumea, wirerush, pepperweed, giant reed, pickleweed, hard-stem tule, three-square bullrush, smooth cordgrass, California cordgrass, cattail.