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In 1969, researchers developed the first global circulation model (Ruttiman 2006); however, it was not until 2014 that modelers first attempted a global ecosystem and biodiversity model that included human pressures (i.e., the Madingley Model) (Harfoot et al. 2014). Other large-scale models of biodiversity exist, such as GLOBIO (Alkemade et al. 2009), but to date there are no well accepted global biodiversity models similar to global circulation models that can help guide global biodiversity policy development and targets. The lack of global biodiversity models compared to the extensive array of general circulation models provides a unique opportunity for climate, ecosystem, and biodiversity modeling experts to...
Abstract (from Fisheries Magazine): Ecosystem transformation can be defined as the emergence of a self‐organizing, self‐sustaining, ecological or social–ecological system that deviates from prior ecosystem structure and function. These transformations are occurring across the globe; consequently, a static view of ecosystem processes is likely no longer sufficient for managing fish, wildlife, and other species. We present a framework that encompasses three strategies for fish and wildlife managers dealing with ecosystems vulnerable to transformation. Specifically, managers can resist change and strive to maintain existing ecosystem composition, structure, and function; accept transformation when it is not feasible...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Key Messages: 1. Ecosystem functions and the services they provide to people can support climate adaptation efforts. 2. A systems perspective that includes ecosystem services could contribute to the CASC research agenda in three interrelated ways: they can directly benefit current CASC stakeholder goals, they can provide co-benefits to CASC stakeholders, and they allow for full-benefit accounting of the impacts of choices made by natural resource managers. 3. Some existing CASC research aligns well with an ecosystem services framing and could be enhanced by understanding how the components fit into a broader multi-objective context. Notable bright spots for research in these dimensions concern coastal resilience...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities. In order to understand the vulnerability of the region’s ecosystems to change, it is necessary to have reliable projections of future climate conditions. To address this need, researchers first examined past and present variations in climate and assessed the ability of climate models to effectively project future climate conditions for the region. Second,...
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In recent decades, average temperatures across the U.S. Southwest have increased substantially and precipitation patterns have increased in variability. The warmer temperatures directly impact water availability within Southwest ecosystems, including earlier snowmelts; reduced snowpacks, soil moisture, and streamflow; and lower humidity. Collectively, this has led to an increase in aridity across this region. This in turn affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases wildfire severity, and impacts human activities such as agriculture and municipal water use. These well-documented trends are at the forefront of the concerns of natural resource managers in the Southwest. This project aims to strengthen partnerships...
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Abstract Background Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses,...
Abstract (from Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment): Ecosystem transformation involves the emergence of persistent ecological or social–ecological systems that diverge, dramatically and irreversibly, from prior ecosystem structure and function. Such transformations are occurring at increasing rates across the planet in response to changes in climate, land use, and other factors. Consequently, a dynamic view of ecosystem processes that accommodates rapid, irreversible change will be critical for effectively conserving fish, wildlife, and other natural resources, and maintaining ecosystem services. However, managing ecosystems toward states with novel structure and function is an inherently unpredictable and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


    map background search result map search result map Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses