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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1950-1999 period, in the annual and seasonal soil moisture (%) and runoff (%) in the Pinyon-Juniper ecosystem of Southwest Colorado for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.
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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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As climate change progresses, profound environmental changes are becoming a widespread concern. A new management paradigm is developing to address this concern with a framework that encourages strategic decisions to resist, accept, or direct ecological trajectories. Effective use of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework requires the scientific community to describe the range of plausible ecological conditions managers might face, while recognizing limits to our ability to predict precisely where or how specific climatic changes may unfold or how complex environmental systems will respond - the climatic future does not fully determine the ecological one. Recent advances have improved development and delivery...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the Met Office Hadley Center (UK) model, HadGEM2-ES, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic, and 2011-2040,...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (USA) model, GFDL-ESM2M, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the...
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Pan evaporation is a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand (E0) for which long term and spatially distributed observations are available from the NOAA Cooperative Observer (COOP) Network. However, this data requires extensive quality control and homogenization due to documented and undocumented station moves and other factors including human errors in recording or digitization. Station-based Pan Evaporation measurements (in mm) from 247 stations across the continental United States were compiled and quality controlled for the analysis shown in Dewes et al., 2017. This dataset reports warm season (May-October; for 21 stations the data is only available for May-September) pan evaporation with at least 20 years...
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Pinyon pine woodlands are among the most widespread and iconic vegetation types in the western United States and support recreation, resource extraction, grazing, and cultural enrichment. However, severe drought conditions have recently caused dramatic mortality of pinyon pines, creating concern about the long-term impact of increasing aridity on the viability of pinyon woodlands. Ecological transformations, or regime shifts, are rapid reorganizations of an ecosystem’s species composition, governing processes, and functions. The goal of this project is to investigate ecological transformation across the Western U.S, characterize the environmental drivers of these changes in vegetation, and apply those insights...
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Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic conditions to help optimize management strategies of wildlife and cattle. Prairie dogs are crucial to North America’s Central Grasslands, creating habitat for other wildlife by digging burrows and clipping vegetation, and serving as a key food source for many predators. However, the sylvatic plague, a non-native disease with over 99% mortality...
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning. To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during...
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Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be heavily altered by future changes in precipitation and soil moisture that are driven by climate change. Although this vulnerability is well recognized, developing accurate information about the potential consequences of climate change for ecological drought is difficult because the soil moisture conditions that plants experience are...
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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1950-1999 period, in the annual and seasonal soil moisture (%), runoff (%), precipitation (%) and evapotranspiration (%) in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations (6GCMs x 2RCPs) which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic, and 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and...
Soil moisture is crucial for agriculture and hydrology, but its accurate prediction is challenging due to inadequate representation of various complex land surface processes and meteorological influences. In this research, we employ the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) framework, a specific architecture of deep learning networks that is effective in processing time series data, for predicting soil moisture. We have developed the Next Generation Interactive Soil Moisture Forecasting System to advance skillful soil moisture predictions at sub-seasonal timescales by leveraging advanced analytics and deep learning, with LSTM at its core. We combined the state-of-the-art climate model's (Community Earth System Model Version...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1971-2000 period, in the mean, daily minimum and maximum temperatures (F), precipitation (%), growing season lenght (GSL in days), and warm season duration index (WSDI in days) for the Southwest Colorado region for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.
North American grasslands are a regional priority of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). The South Central CASC, in partnership with the US FWS Science Applications Program, the Northwest CASC, the North Central CASC, and the Midwest CASC, implemented a training series for grasslands conservation practitioners that begin in May 2022 with a series of webinars and culminated in an in-person workshop in January 2023. Through this training series, we introduce practitioners to the science of climate change, explore the impacts, and discuss adaptation options available. Follow the links to access materials and recordings from this training series for review and continued use by practitioners.
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the National Centre of Meteorological Research (France) model, CNRM-CM5, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (France) model, IPSL-CM5A-MR, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic,...
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Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decades pinyon-juniper forests have been removed across large areas of land to improve wildlife habitat and grazing land productivity while reducing risks of wildland fire. What isn’t known is whether these strategies are effective in reaching this goal, especially given that our future climate will likely be hotter and drier...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis model, CanESM2, simulations (r1i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic,...
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This dataset provides downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for nine ecologically-relevant climate variables for the north central US region between 35.5N-49N latitude and 88W-118W longitude from the National Center of Atmospheric Research (USA) model, CCSM4, simulations (r6i1p1) from two emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), which are downscaled using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method. These projections are available as five different (approximately) 30-year climate normals between 1950 and 2099 as monthly values, except for Aridity Index which are annual values. The five periods for which these climate normals are provided are 1950-1979 and 1980-2005 in the historic,...
map background search result map search result map Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method from selective CMIP5 models CanESM2: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method CCSM4: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method CNRM-CM5: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method GFDL-ESM2M: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method HadGEM2-ES: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method IPSL-CM5A-MR: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West Time Series of the Anomalies in Temperature and Precipitation Metrics Between 1950-2099 for Southwestern Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture and Runoff Between 1950-2099 for the Pinyon-Juniper Ecosystem of Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture, Runoff, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Between 1950-2099 in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S. A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture, Runoff, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Between 1950-2099 in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Time Series of the Anomalies in Temperature and Precipitation Metrics Between 1950-2099 for Southwestern Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method from selective CMIP5 models CanESM2: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method CCSM4: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method CNRM-CM5: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method GFDL-ESM2M: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method HadGEM2-ES: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method IPSL-CM5A-MR: Downscaled climate projections at 800m spatial resolution for the north central United States based on the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analog (MACA) method Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.