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A century of fire exclusion across many forest types in the western U.S. has resulted in unforeseen changes, including high fuel accumulations, high densities of trees, and increasing dominance of fire-intolerant species. These changes are particularly acute in forests that historically experienced high frequency and low severity fires. In response, the NPS Pacific-West region supports a large prescribed fire program to reduce understory fuels and forest density. Prescribed fire has been generally successful at reducing understory fuels and threats of catastrophic fire, and treated stands are expected to be more resistant to future wildfire. Less well understood is how well prescribed fire confers resistance to...
This webpage, document, and bibliography provides a summary of projected future changes in the California Central Valley according to current models and assessments. Information is provided for Temperature, Extreme Heat, Precipitation, Drought and Aridity, Sierra Nevada Snowpack, Snowmelt, Runoff, Stream Flow and Temperatures, Storms and Flooding, Groundwater, Agriculture and Urban Land and Water Use, Phenology, Fire, Vegetation change.
Goal: Identify actions that will maximize the adaptive capacity of priority species, habitat, and ecosystems to support an ecologically connected Central Valley landscape. The CA LCC will bring partners together to cooperatively agree on strategic climate-smart adaptation goals, objectives, strategies, and actions for the Central Valley landscape. The project area is the Central Valley due to its high vulnerability to numerous stressors including continuing land use changes, increasing temperatures, drought, and loss of important habitats. The target audience is natural resource managers and decision makers in the Central Valley. The approach includes assessing current and potential future conditions of priority...
ContextIn addition to biodiversity conservation, California rangelands generate multiple ecosystem services including livestock production, drinking and irrigation water, and carbon sequestration. California rangeland ecosystems have experienced substantial conversion to residential land use and more intensive agriculture.ObjectivesTo understand the potential impacts to rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) climate/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley of California and surrounding foothills consistent with three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario narratives.MethodsWe quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic...
This dataset includes Climatic Water Deficit (CWD) change, average winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) and average spring (Mar, Apr, May) snowpack change, recharge change, and runoff change from Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the GFDL and PCM A2 Scenarios in Sierra Nevada California, for 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099. The data was processed using historic (1979-2000) and future (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099) values to calculate change. CWD: The term climatic water deficit defined by Stephenson (1998) is quantified as the amount of water by which potential evapotranspiration (PET) exceeds actual evapotranspiration (AET). This term effectively integrates the combined effects of solar radiation, evapotranspiration,...