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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
We assessed tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) sensitivity to natural disturbance by drought, fire, and dieback with a 7300-year-long paleorecord. We analyzed pollen assemblages, charcoal accumulation rates, and higher plant biomarker compounds (average chain length [ACL] of n-alkanes) in sediments from Wai’ānapanapa, a small lake near the upper forest limit and the mean trade wind inversion (TWI) in Hawai‘i. The paleorecord of ACL suggests increased drought frequency and a lower TWI elevation from 2555–1323 cal yr B.P. and 606–334 cal yr B.P. Charcoal began to accumulate and a novel fire regime was initiated ca. 880 cal yr B.P., followed by a decreased fire return interval at ca. 550 cal yr B.P. Diebacks occurred...
Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models...
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
BackgroundDetailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant.ResultsThe time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely owing at least in part to management actions taken on its behalf. In contrast, the population is estimated...
Determination of carbon isotope (δ13C) values of tree-ring tissue is a well-established method to reconstruct past climate variability at annual resolution, but such records are limited in tropical latitudes due to the lack of well-defined annual growth bands. Recent work has demonstrated the potential for high-resolution, intra-ring δ13C records to help define ring boundaries in tropical environments and provide additional climate information at sub-annual resolution. Here we present a high-resolution, intra-ring carbon isotope (δ13C) record of the Hawaiian endemic species Sophora chrysophylla(also known as “māmane”) in order to assess the ability to extract seasonal climate information from these drought tolerant...
    map background search result map search result map Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii