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ROOT _ScienceBase Catalog __National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers ___Northeast CASC ____FY 2013 Projects _____Changes in Forested Landscapes of the Northeastern U.S. Under Future Climate Scenarios Filters
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Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0294-1): Context Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating at multiple scales. Niche and biophysical process models have been commonly used to predict climate change effects at regional scales, however, these models have limited capability to include site-scale population dynamics and landscape-scale disturbance and dispersal. We applied a landscape modeling approach that incorporated three levels of spatial hierarchy (pixel, landtype, and ecological subsection) to model regional-scale shifts in forest composition under climate change. Objective To determine (1) how importance value of individual species will...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Modeling,
Northeast CASC
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-017-0540-9): Context Quantitative models of forest dynamics have followed a progression toward methods with increased detail, complexity, and spatial extent. Objectives We highlight milestones in the development of forest dynamics models and identify future research and application opportunities. Methods We reviewed milestones in the evolution of forest dynamics models from the 1930s to the present with emphasis on forest growth and yield models and forest landscape models We combined past trends with emerging issues to identify future needs. Results Historically, capacity to model forest dynamics at tree, stand, and landscape scales was constrained...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0217-1): Context Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to make better decisions. Objective Our objective was to test the hypothesis that agreement between process and species distribution models varies by hierarchical level. Due to the top-down approach of species distribution models and the bottom-up approach of process...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC,
climate models,
Forests in the Eastern United States are changing in response to ecological succession, tree harvest and other disturbances and climate change has the potential to further change these forests. We predicted the distribution and abundance of common tree species across portions of the Eastern U.S. under alternative climate scenarios that varied in the amount of warming by the end of the century from 1.1 to 4.2 degrees C. We used a forest landscape change model to forecast changes in tree abundances and distribution in the North Atlantic region of the U.S. while accounting for climate change, succession, and harvest. We then considered a broader region of the U.S. and combined our results with results from previous...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Landscapes,
New England,
Northeast CASC
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815215300621): Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models at plot and regional scale in longer timeframe (i.e. decades). We compared model predictions of aboveground carbon by one representative model of each model type (PnET-II, ED2 and LINKAGES v2.2, respectively) with field data (19–77 years) at both scales in the Central...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Carbon,
Forests,
Landscapes,
Model comparison,
Northeast CASC,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1146609X15300059): Woody species are increasing in density, causing transition to more densely wooded vegetation states, and encroaching across ecotonal borders into non-forested ecosystems. We examined USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data to identify tree species that have expanded longitudinally in range, particularly into the central United States. We analyzed compositional differences within ecological regions (i.e., subsections) in eastern and western ranges of species using repeated measures ANOVA. We considered differences in outer ranges to indicate range expansion or contraction. We also estimated the shift in forest area...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Assisted migration,
Densification,
Encroachment,
Expansion,
Forests,
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8): Context Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales. Objectives LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under...
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0429-z): Context Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests. Methods We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES15-00238.1/abstract): Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of succession and harvest and may not consider important species-specific demographic processes driving forests changes. We determined the relative importance of succession, harvest, and climate change to forest composition changes in a 125-million ha area of the Central Hardwood...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Forests,
Forests,
Hardwoods,
Landscapes,
Northeast CASC
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