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The Southeastern U.S. spans broad ranges of physiographic settings and contains a wide variety of aquatic systems that provide habitat for hundreds of endemic aquatic species that pose interesting challenges and opportunities for managers of aquatic resources, particularly in the face of climate change. For example, the Southeast contains the southernmost populations of the eastern brook trout and other cold-water dependent species. Climate change is predicted to increase temperatures in the South and is likely to have a substantial effect on extant populations of cold-water biota. Thus, aquatic managers are tasked with developing strategies for preserving cold-water dependent biota, such as eastern brook trout,...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1752-1688.12304/abstract): The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases...
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A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1949 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (Viger and Bock, 2014). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized...
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This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled climate projections because of the multiple methodologies used to produce them and the time-consuming process required to obtain model output. In response, the research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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These data can be used to replicate the application of MWBMglacier as described in two journal articles: 1) Enhancement of a parsimonious water balance model to simulate surface hydrology in a glacierized watershed (in review), and 2) Hydrologic regime changes in a high-latitude glacierized watershed under future climate conditions (doi:10.3390/w10020128). These simulations provide results from historical and 12 future general circulation model scenarios for the period 1949-2099 to determine the potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of a snow-dominated mountainous environment. In addition to the inputs and outputs, this Data Release includes summaries of the input and output data...
Modeling of watershed response to normal and extreme climatic conditions or to changes in the physical conditions of a watershed requires the simulation of a variety of complex hydrologic processes and process interactions. Some of these processes are well understood at a point or for a small area; others are poorly understood at all scales. Increasing spatial and temporal variability in climate and watershed characteristics with an increase in watershed area adds significantly to the degree of difficulty in investigating and understanding these processes. Research is needed to better define these processes and to develop techniques to simulate these processes and their interactions at all watershed scales. Project...
Abstract: A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) and the Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, to evaluate the hydrologic response of a daily time step hydrologic model to historical observations and projections of potential climate and land-cover change for the period 1952–2099. The model simulations were used to compute the potential changes in hydrologic response and streamflow statistics across the Southeastern United States, using historical observations of climate and streamflow. Thirteen downscaled general circulation models with four representative concentration...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
THE RISING RISK OF DROUGHT. Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). For example, the “Millennium Drought”...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
In this research, we characterized the changes in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly total water storage anomaly (TWSA) in 18 surface basins and 12 principal aquifers in the conterminous United States during 2003–2016. Regions with high variability in storage were identified. Ten basins and four aquifers showed significant changes in storage. Eight surface basins and eight aquifers were found to show decadal stability in storage. A pixel-based analysis of storage showed that the New England basin and North Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer showed the largest area under positive storage change. By contrast, the Lower Colorado and California basins showed the largest area under negative change....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414010087): Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient ( C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed...
Abstract: The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated...
Water management planners and researchers throughout the world rely on hydrological models to forecast and simulate streamflow hydrology and hydrological events. These simulations are used to inform water management, municipal planning, and ecosystem conservation decisions, as well as to investigate potential effects of climate and land-use change on hydrology.
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This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations for the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) version 5.1.0 and the USGS National Hydrologic Model infrastructure (NHM, Regan and others, 2018). These simulations were developed to provide estimates of the water budget for the period 1950 to 2010. Specific file types include: 1) input atmospheric forcings of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, and daily precipitation accumulation derived from a gridded observation-based dataset developed by Maurer and others (2002), 2) input parameter files for static and dynamic land cover conditions, and 3) output files of simulated water...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations of the southeastern U.S. using the Monthly Water Balance Model, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and statistically-based methods. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions for an area of approximately 1.16 million square miles. These model input and output data are intended to accompany a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (LaFontaine and others, 2019); they include four types of data: 1) model input parameters, 2) model output statistics, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units...
The increasing availability of climate projections provides natural resource managers and scientists with a number of scenarios from which to estimate variability in hydrologic response to future climatic conditions. This presents a need for consistent and efficient conversion of climate data into model-ready format, archiving and indexing of model simulation results, and the visualization and summation of model simulation results. Furthermore, decision-makers need this information at specific locations and for specific periods of record to effectively manage their water resources. This final report summarizes a collaborative effort to help address these issues through the construction of the Monthly Water Balance...
    map background search result map search result map Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users USGS-USFS Partnership to Help Managers Evaluate Conservation Strategies for Aquatic Ecosystems Based on Future Climate Projections SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Model Input and Output for Hydrologic Simulations of the Southeastern United States for Historical and Future Conditions Supporting data for two MWBMglacier applications to the Copper River basin in Alaska Application of the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS), 1950-2010, Maurer Calibration SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Supporting data for two MWBMglacier applications to the Copper River basin in Alaska USGS-USFS Partnership to Help Managers Evaluate Conservation Strategies for Aquatic Ecosystems Based on Future Climate Projections Model Input and Output for Hydrologic Simulations of the Southeastern United States for Historical and Future Conditions Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users Application of the National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (NHM-PRMS), 1950-2010, Maurer Calibration Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Monthly Water Balance Model Futures