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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Northeast CASC > FY 2012 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00028487.2016.1150879): Long-term sampling of fisheries data is an important source of information for making inferences about the temporal dynamics of populations that support ecologically and economically important fisheries. For example, time series of catch-per-effort data are often examined for the presence of long-term trends. However, it is also of interest to know whether certain sampled locations are exhibiting temporal patterns that deviate from the overall pattern exhibited across all sampled locations. Patterns at these “unusual” sites may be the result of site-specific abiotic (e.g., habitat) or biotic (e.g., the presence of an invasive species)...
The Northeast United States and Atlantic Canada share many of the same types of forests, wetlands, and natural communities, and from a wildlife perspective the region is one contiguous forest. However, resources are classified and mapped differently on the two sides of the border, creating challenges for habitat evaluation, species modeling, and predicting the effects of climate change. To remedy this, ecologists from The Nature Conservancy collaborated with a committee of scientists from various Canadian institutions to produce the first international map of terrestrial habitats for northeast North America. The project used extensive spatial data on geology, soils, landforms, wetlands, elevation and climate. Additionally,...
This study set out to answer the question: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” To accomplish this, researchers gathered existing stream temperature data, identified data gaps, deployed stream temperature monitoring devices, and developed and tested a stream temperature model that could be regionalized across the Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) domain. Polebitski and colleagues partnered with another NE CSC funded project team, NorEaST-Stream Temperature Web Portal Demonstration and Application, led by Jana Stewart (USGS Wisconsin Water...
The purpose of the project was to conduct an extensive search for both published and ongoing research that, in general, deals with climate change and agriculture in a water quality context for the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC. Kasey Hutchinson (Iowa Water Science Center) is project lead, with support from Carl Carlson (Massachusetts Water Science Center) and Charlie Perry (Kansas Water Science Center). The search was two-fold; one portion of the search dealt with an on-line literature search for published peer-reviewed articles for the time period of 2000 (sometimes slightly earlier depending on the relative degree of the...
As both a practical tool for conservation professionals, and an educational resource for nature enthusiasts, the Northeast Habitat dataset and map viewer offers a way for people of all backgrounds to find answers to important questions about the terrestrial landscape. The map includes: (1) complete coverage of the Northeast’s 140 common and unique terrestrial habitats, from the serpentine ridges of the Gaspe Peninsula to the limestone barrens of western Virginia; (2) information on each habitat’s ecology, plants and animals, securement level, regional abundance, and predicted loss to development; (3) base maps to explore how the Habitat Map overlays on satellite imagery or topographic maps; and (4) scientifically...
Abstract: We used a numerical model to investigate how a barrier island groundwater system responds to increases of up to 60 cm in sea level. We found that a sea-level rise of 20 cm leads to substantial changes in the depth of the water table and the extent and depth of saltwater intrusion, which are key determinants in the establishment, distribution and succession of vegetation assemblages and habitat suitability in barrier islands ecosystems. In our simulations, increases in water-table height in areas with a shallow depth to water (or thin vadose zone) resulted in extensive groundwater inundation of land surface and a thinning of the underlying freshwater lens. We demonstrated the interdependence of the groundwater...
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The purpose of the project was to conduct an extensive search for completed and ongoing research that deals with climate change and agriculture in the context of water quality, for the Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC. The search to acquire this information was two-fold. One portion of the search dealt with an online literature search for published peer-reviewed articles for the period of approximately 2000 to present. The second portion of the search dealt with contacting US Geological Survey (USGS) Water Science Centers and state institutions to request information on current research projects dealing with this topic that...
Abstract (from http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03632415.2016.1210517): Improving quality and better availability of continuous stream temperature data allow natural resource managers, particularly in fisheries, to understand associations between different characteristics of stream thermal regimes and stream fishes. However, there is no convenient tool to efficiently characterize multiple metrics reflecting stream thermal regimes with the increasing amount of data from continuously recording data loggers. This article describes a software program packaged as a library in R to facilitate this process. With this freely available package, users will be able to quickly summarize metrics that describe five...
The understanding of sea-level rise (SLR) processes has improved significantly over the past 15-20 years. Contributions from ice sheets and ocean dynamics are increasingly well-understood, and global budgets better constrained. In addition to physically-based models, semi-empirical methods, and more recently expert elicitations, are also available to describe potential SLR. In spite of these advances, there is still large uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of SLR over the next century and beyond. How much and how fast sea-level may rise can be a significant determinant of management actions in both natural and built environments. Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to SLR requires integrating...
Climate change is expected to alter stream temperature and flow regimes over the coming decades, and in turn influence distributions of aquatic species in those freshwater ecosystems. To better anticipate these changes, there is a need to compile both short- and long-term stream temperature data for managers to gain an understanding of baseline conditions, historic trends, and future projections. Unfortunately, many agencies lack sufficient resources to compile, conduct quality assurance and control, and make accessible stream temperature data collected through routine monitoring. Yet, pooled data from multiple sources, even if temporally and spatially inconsistent, can have great value both in the realm of stream...
Abstract (from http://scholarworks.umass.edu/cee_ewre/72/): In the Northeast U.S. increasing stream temperatures due to climate change pose a serious threat to cool and cold water fish communities, as well as aquatic ecosystems as a whole. In this study, three stream temperature models were implemented for two different case-study basins in the Northeast Climate Science Center region. Two coupled hydrology-stream temperature (physical) models were used: VIC-RBM and SWAT-Ficklin et al. (2012). The third model implemented was a nonlinear regression (statistical) model developed by Mohseni et al. (1998). Metrics were developed to assess these models regarding their prediction skill, data input requirements, spatial...
This final report was developed in December 2014 for the project Critically Evaluating Existing Methods and Supporting a Standardization of Terrestrial and Wetland Habitat Classification and Mapping that Includes Characterization of Climate Sensitive Systems.
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The U.S. Geological Survey has been forecasting sea-level rise impacts on the landscape to evaluate where coastal land will be available for future use. The purpose of this project is to develop a spatially explicit, probabilistic model of coastal response for the Northeastern U.S. to a variety of sea-level scenarios that take into account the variable nature of the coast and provides outputs at spatial and temporal scales suitable for decision support. Model results provide predictions of adjusted land elevation ranges (AE) with respect to forecast sea-levels, a likelihood estimate of this outcome (PAE), and a probability of coastal response (CR) characterized as either static or dynamic. The predictions span the...
Survivability of aquatic organisms has been linked to stream temperature regimes. Climate change is anticipated to alter the current thermal patterns in riparian ecosystems and will have implications for these organisms. A water temperature change of 1 or 2 °C may have severe consequences for aquatic species, specifically coldwater fishes. Monitoring and modeling of stream temperature regimes is critical to assessing the vulnerability of coldwater species under the impacts of climate change in the Northeast United States. This research reviews the literature on existing stream temperature models for applicability over varying spatial and temporal scales. Collection of existing stream temperature data in the Northeast...
Water temperature is one of the important characteristics of a stream that can be impacted by anthropogenic change. Such change can have significant ecological implications for the health of riparian systems. It is important for decision-makers to understand the impact of various physical characteristics on the stream temperature regime in a watershed. This research applies a statistical stream temperature model (Mohseni et al, 1998) to 905 sites across the northeastern United States to determine if such models can be useful to resource managers. Statistical analysis on the calibrated model parameters across the best-fit sites is used to provide information on watershed characteristics which may be critical to stream...
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The U.S. Geological Survey has been forecasting sea-level rise impacts on the landscape to evaluate where coastal land will be available for future use. The purpose of this project is to develop a spatially explicit, probabilistic model of coastal response for the Northeastern U.S. to a variety of sea-level scenarios that take into account the variable nature of the coast and provides outputs at spatial and temporal scales suitable for decision support. Model results provide predictions of adjusted land elevation ranges (AE) with respect to forecast sea-levels, a likelihood estimate of this outcome (PAE), and a probability of coastal response (CR) characterized as either static or dynamic. The predictions span the...
Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to sea-level rise (SLR) requires integrating a variety of physical, biological, and social factors. These include landscape, habitat, and resource changes, as well as the ability of society and its institutions to adapt. The range of physical and biological responses associated with SLR is poorly understood at some of the critical time and space scales required for decision making. Limitations in the ability to quantitatively predict outcomes at local, regional, and national scales affect whether, when, and how some decisions will be made. The USGS and collaborators are developing scientific knowledge and tools to understand and anticipate the magnitude and...
    map background search result map search result map Science to Examine the Interactions Between Climate, Agriculture, and Water Quality Predicted Elevation predicted elevation with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83) Coastal Response Type Probabilities with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83) Predicted Elevation predicted elevation with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83) Coastal Response Type Probabilities with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83) Science to Examine the Interactions Between Climate, Agriculture, and Water Quality