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Scientists will employ land use change build-out scenaria for future energy development demand to quantify future impacts on forest habitats across the Appalachian LCC. We propose to create maps of wind, oil and gas, and coal development potential for the entire study area and use these maps and published projections from federal and state land management agencies to model future build-out scenaria.
Comments from Technical Oversight Team regarding Energy Forecast Project Progress Report in Quarter 1, 2013.
A new study and online mapping tool by the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and The Nature Conservancy are intended to inform discussions among conservation agencies and organizations, industry, policy makers, regulators and the public on how to protect essential natural resources while realizing the benefits of increased domestic energy production.
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The Appalachians are a landscape filled with globally-significant biological diversity and cultural resources that provides essential benefits to large cities and surrounding human communities. The region is also rich in energy resources that meet national and regional demands for energy. As wind, natural gas, and oil energy development expand along with traditional coal, there is an increasing need for research to inform discussions on how to meet immediate and future energy needs while sustaining the health of natural systems. To help address this need, the Appalachian LCC awarded a grant to The Nature Conservancy to assess current and future energy development across the entire region. Assessing Future Energy...
This file includes two raster layers. One of the raster files (LCC_Windgt90x.img) displays the data by differentiating between areas that have a greater than 90 percent or higher risk of development from areas with less than a 90 percent risk of wind energy development. The second raster file (LCC_WindProbs.img) displays the energy risk across a gradient, but does not include the categories seen in the Energy Forecast Web Mapping Tool. The values range from 0-1, with larger values representing a higher probability of development.
This file includes two raster layers. One of the raster files (LCC_Coal_gt90x.img) displays the data by differentiating between areas that have a greater than 90 percent or higher risk of coal energy development and areas with less than a 90 percent risk of coal energy development. The second raster file (LCC_Coal.img) displays the energy risk across a gradient, but does not include the categories seen in the Energy Forecast Web Mapping Tool. The values range from 0-255, with larger values representing a higher probability of development.
In this study funded by the Appalachian LCC, The Nature Conservancy assessed current and future energy development across the entire region. The research combined multiple layers of data on energy development trends and important natural resource and ecosystem services to give a comprehensive picture of what future energy development could look like in the Appalachians. It also shows where likely energy development areas will intersect with other significant values like intact forests, important streams, and vital ecological services such as drinking water supplies.
This presentation by Thomas Minney, Director of The Nature Conservancy in West Virginia, provides a detailed overview of the Appalachian LCC funded project “Assessing Future Energy Development across the Appalachians.” The study and online mapping tool developed from this research are intended to inform discussions among conservation agencies and organizations, industry, policy makers, regulators and the public on how to protect essential natural resources while realizing the benefits of increased domestic energy production.
This file includes a shapefile of all the areas identified as forest cores with the accompanying information regarding the energy development risk. Within the attribute table, information regarding property ownership is also included.
A Nature Conservancy study funded by the Robertson Foundation and published by the open-access Public Library of Science (PLoS) in January 2014, assessed potential impacts of future energy development on water resources in the Marcellus play region.Global demand for energy has increased by more than 50 percent in the last half-century, and a similar increase is projected by 2030. This demand will increasingly be met with alternative and unconventional energy sources. Development of these resources causes disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The Marcellus Shale gas play covers more than 160,934 km2 in an area that provides drinking water for over 22 million people in several of...
The goal of this project was to create a spatially explicit 1km2 grid cell model for the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (Figure 1) predicting where surface coal mining is likely to occur in in a projected future time period, under two different scenarios. To accomplish this goal we combined GIS spatial analysis, a Random Forests predictive model, and future mining buildout scenarios. This report provides a detailed methodology of our approach and discussion of our results.
This file includes three raster layers. One of the raster files (LCC_MxGasgt90x.img) displays the areas that have a greater than 90 percent or higher risk of shale gas development and areas with less than a 90 percent risk of shale gas energy development. The second raster file (LCCMaxGasProb.img) displays the energy risk across a gradient, but does not include the categories seen in the Energy Forecast Web Mapping Tool. The third raster file (UticaWetGasProbs.img) displays the gradient of energy development risk of wet gas within the Utica shale play only. The values range from 0-1, with larger values representing a higher probability of development.
This video presentation by Judy Dunscomb, Senior Conservation Scientist at The Nature Conservancy, provides a detailed overview of how to use the Energy Forecast Mapping Tool. The web-based mapping tool contains model results and important natural assets data layers, which users can operate to see where development may likely occur and where that may intersect with important natural values. The identification of these intersections allow users to focus on areas of potential conflict to incorporate information into landscape-level development and conservation planning as well as suggest areas needing additional localized assessment and evaluation. Data layers are available through this web-based mapping tool.
Review by Technical Oversight Team of 3rd Quarter 2013 report.
Provides a general overview of the need for the Energy Assessment research, the major products and findings that came out of the project, and the relevance of the study, models, and tools to the resource management community.
Request for Applications for the Energy Forecasts Project.
The web-based mapping tool of this energy assessment combines multiple layers of data on energy development trends and important natural resource and ecosystem services, to give a more comprehensive picture of what potential energy development could look like in the Appalachians. The tool shows where energy development is most likely to occur and indicates areas where such development may intersect with other significant values like intact forests, important streams, and vital ecological services such as drinking water supplies.
In 2010, TNC scientists focused on projections of how new energy development could impact natural habitats in Pennsylvania to shape strategies that avoid or minimize those impacts.The Pennsylvania Energy Impacts Assessment sought to answer: How much of each energy type might be developed? What transmission infrastructure will be needed to get more electric power and natural gas to consumers? Where are these energy types most likely to be developed? How does the likely scale and location of future energy development overlap with priority conservation areas?By answering these questions, conservationists can work more effectively with energy companies and government agencies to avoid, minimize, or offset habitat impacts...
This file includes a shapefile that summarizes energy development risk at the 12-digit HUC watershed scale. Within the attribute table, information regarding the amount of impervious surface, HUC 12 watershed name and numerical code as well as the HUC 8 numerical code is included.


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