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Reliable information on water use and availability at basin and field scales are important to ensure the optimized constructive uses of available water resources. This study was conducted with the specific objective to estimate Landsat-based actual evapotranspiration (ETa) using the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model across the state of South Dakota (SD), USA for the 1986–2018 (33-year) period. Validated ETa estimations (r2 = 0.91, PBIAS = −4%, and % RMSE = 11.8%) were further used to understand the crop water-use characteristics and existing historic mono-directional (increasing/decreasing) trends over the eastern (ESD) and western (WSD) regions of SD. The crop water-use characteristics...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aim Anticipating when and where changes in species' demographic rates will lead to range shifts in response to changing climate remains a major challenge. Despite evidence of increasing mortality in dry forests across the globe in response to drought and warming temperatures, the overall impacts on the distribution of dry forests are largely unknown because we lack comparable large-scale data on tree recruitment rates. Here, our aim was to develop range-wide population models for dry forest tree species (pinyon pine and juniper), quantifying both mortality and recruitment, to better understand where and under what conditions species range contractions are occurring. Location Western United States. Major taxa studied...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
In the Great Plains, playas are critical wetland habitats for migratory birds and a source of recharge for the agriculturally important High Plains aquifer. The temporary wetlands exhibit complex hydrology, filling rapidly via local rain storms and then drying through evaporation and groundwater infiltration. Using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to account for these complex processes, we modeled the probability of playa inundation for 71,842 playas in the Great Plains from 1984 to 2018. At the level of individual playas, the model achieved an F1-score of 0.522 on a withheld test set, displaying the ability to predict complex inundation patterns. When simulating playa inundation over the entire region,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands are an important component of dryland ecosystems across the US West and are potentially susceptible to ecological transformation. However, predicting woodland futures is complicated by species-specific strategies for persisting and reproducing under drought conditions, uncertainty in future climate, and limitations to inferring demographic rates from forest inventory data. Here, we leverage new demographic models to quantify how climate change is expected to alter population demographics in five PJ tree species in the US West and place our results in the context of a climate adaptation framework to resist, accept, or direct ecological transformation. Two of five study species, Pinus...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Paleohydrologic records can provide unique, long-term perspectives on streamflow variability and hydroclimate for use in water resource planning. Such long-term records can also play a key role in placing both present day events and projected future conditions into a broader context than that offered by instrumental observations. However, relative to other major river basins across the western United States, a paucity of streamflow reconstructions has to date prevented the full application of such paleohydrologic information in the Upper Missouri River Basin. Here we utilize a set of naturalized streamflow records for the Upper Missouri and an expanded network of tree-ring records...
Abstract (from Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution): Tallgrass prairie ecosystems in North America are heavily degraded and require effective restoration strategies if prairie specialist taxa are to be preserved. One common management tool used to restore grassland is the application of a seed-mix of native prairie plant species. While this technique is effective in the short-term, it is critical that species' resilience to changing climate be evaluated when designing these mixes. By utilizing species distribution models (SDMs), species' bioclimatic envelopes–and thus the geographic area suitable for them–can be quantified and predicted under various future climate regimes, and current seed-mixes may be modified...
Regeneration is an essential demographic step that affects plant population persistence, recovery after disturbances, and potential migration to track suitable climate conditions. Challenges of restoring big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) after disturbances including fire-invasive annual grass interactions exemplify the need to understand the complex regeneration processes of this long-lived, woody species that is widespread across the semiarid western U.S. Projected 21st century climate change is expected to increase drought risks and intensify restoration challenges. A detailed understanding of regeneration will be crucial for developing management frameworks for the big sagebrush region in the 21st century....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation