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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > South Central CASC > FY 2013 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Abstract (From http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0062.1): Over mountainous terrain, ground weather radars face limitations in monitoring surface precipitation as they are affected by radar beam blockages along with the range-dependent biases due to beam broadening and increase in altitude with range. These issues are compounded by precipitation structures that are relatively shallow and experience growth at low levels due to orographic enhancement. To improve surface precipitation estimation, researchers at the University of Oklahoma have demonstrated the benefits of integrating the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) products into the ground-based NEXRAD rainfall...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11258-016-0568-y): Resprouting is a key functional trait for species in disturbance prone environments. In many semi-arid environments, woody plants face both fire and drought as recurring disturbances. Past work has demonstrated that oaks inhabiting sky-island forests of the northern Sierra Madre Oriental have differing microhabitat preferences and heavy stem dieback occured during the historic 2011 drought indicating potential xylem failure. These oak species, representing two sections within the genus, are all post-fire resprouters: they can resprout from underground storage organs when fire kills above ground tissue. Resprouts provide an opportunity to...
The south-central U.S. exists in a zone of dramatic transition in terms of eco-climate system diversity. Ecosystems across much of the region rely on warm-season convective precipitation. These convective precipitation is subject to large uncertainties under climate change scenario, possibly leading to gradual or sudden changes in habitats, and ecosystems. The convective precipitation in this region, occurring on a range of time and space scales, is extremely challenging to predict in future climate scenario. In this project, we established a unique, cutting-edge, dynamic downscaling capability to address the challenge of predicting precipitation in the south-central U.S. in current and future climate scenarios....
Abstract (from http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001282): A novel multisite cascading calibration (MSCC) approach using the shuffled complex evolution–University of Arizona (SCE-UA) optimization method, developed at the University of Arizona, was employed to calibrate the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model in the Red River Basin. Model simulations were conducted at 35 nested gauging stations. Compared with simulated results using a priori parameters, single-site calibration can improve VIC model performance at specific calibration sites; however, improvement is still limited in upstream locations. The newly developed MSCC approach overcomes this limitation. Simulations using MSCC...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1598-0): Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods seek to refine global climate model (GCM) outputs via processes that glean information from a combination of observations and GCM simulations. They aim to create value-added climate projections by reducing biases and adding finer spatial detail. Analysis techniques, such as cross-validation, allow assessments of how well ESD methods meet these goals during observational periods. However, the extent to which an ESD method’s skill might differ when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed readily in the same manner. Here we present a “perfect model” experimental design that quantifies...
In 2015, the Red River Basin experienced the tail end of a severe drought followed by exceptional flooding, both of which cause impacts to industry, agriculture, tourism and the environment. Scientists, water managers and other stakeholders are interested in knowing what is in store for the future of the Red River Basin. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma and the Choctaw and Chickasaw Nations developed projections of future hydrology for the Red River Basin under possible future climate conditions. A methodology was developed for using current state of the art Global Climate Models (GCM) and applying them on a scale suitable for hydrologic models, ultimately making the information useful to water managers...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941400225X): This study assesses the latest version, Version 7 (V7) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) rainfall estimates by comparison with the previous version, Version 6 (V6), for both near-real-time product (3B42RT) and post-real-time research products (3B42) over the climate-transitional zone in the southern Great Plains, USA. Two basins, the Verdigris River Basin (VRB) in the east and the Upper Washita Basin (UWB) in the west, with distinctive precipitation but similar vegetation and elevation, were selected to evaluate the TMPA products using rain gauge-blended products with WSR-88D...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414010087): Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient ( C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed...
In the southwestern United States, desert mountain ranges are “islands” of forest in a sea of dry grasslands and desert shrubs. It is likely that this region will face a hotter climate in the future. A particular concern is that many of these tree species (oaks, pines, and junipers) are restricted to higher elevations and that a warming climate will reduce the available habitat causing populations to decline. Although all trees are restricted to mountains in this region, different species prefer different local habitats (for example, one might prefer south slopes, others valley bottoms). This suggests that more than simply elevation determines tree habitat. We took detailed measurements of temperature and soil moisture...
Hydrologic extremes of drought and flooding stress water resources and damage communities in the Red River basin, located in the south-central United States. For example, the summer of 2011 was the third driest summer in Oklahoma state history and the driest in Texas state history. When the long-term drought conditions ended in the spring of 2015 as El Niño brought record precipitation to the region, there were also catastrophic floods that caused loss of life and property. Hydrologic extremes such as these have occurred throughout the historical record, but decision-makers need to know how the frequency of these events is expected to vary in a changing climate so that they can mitigate these impacts and losses....
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD024796/abstract): A significant challenge with dynamical downscaling of climate simulations is the ability to accurately represent convection and precipitation. The use of convection-permitting resolutions avoids cumulus parameterization, which is known to be a large source of uncertainty. A regional climate model (RCM) based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model is configured with a 4 km grid spacing and applied to the U.S. Great Plains, a region characterized by many forms of weather and climate extremes. The 4 km RCM is evaluated by running it in a hindcast mode over the central U.S. region for a 10 year period, forced at the boundary by...
Abstract: The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated...
Abstract (from RMetS): The cumulative distribution function transform (CDFt) downscaling method has been used widely to provide local‐scale information and bias correction to output from physical climate models. The CDFt approach is one from the category of statistical downscaling methods that operates via transformations between statistical distributions. Although numerous studies have demonstrated that such methods provide value overall, much less effort has focused on their performance with regard to values in the tails of distributions. We evaluate the performance of CDFt‐generated tail values based on four distinct approaches, two native to CDFt and two of our own creation, in the context of a “Perfect Model”...
Led by members of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) consortium, this project developed and implemented a professional development workshop for graduate students, post-docs, and early-career researchers within the SC CSC region. The workshop (1) introduced participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the SC CSC and its place within the U.S. Department of the Interior and the larger CSC network, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader research priority goals and its eventual applicability to end-user needs across the region; (2) provided an opportunity for participants to present their research to fellow peers; (3) facilitated interdisciplinary...
Abstract (from http://www.nature.com/articles/srep15956): Recent studies showed that anomalous dry conditions and limited moisture supply roughly between 1998 and 2008, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, led to reduced vegetation productivity and ceased growth in land evapotranspiration (ET). However, natural variability of Earth’s climate system can degrade capabilities for identifying climate trends. Here we produced a long-term (1982–2013) remote sensing based land ET record and investigated multidecadal changes in global ET and underlying causes. The ET record shows a significant upward global trend of 0.88 mm yr−2 ( P < 0.001) over the 32-year period, mainly driven by vegetation greening (0.018% per year;...
The increasing availability of climate projections provides natural resource managers and scientists with a number of scenarios from which to estimate variability in hydrologic response to future climatic conditions. This presents a need for consistent and efficient conversion of climate data into model-ready format, archiving and indexing of model simulation results, and the visualization and summation of model simulation results. Furthermore, decision-makers need this information at specific locations and for specific periods of record to effectively manage their water resources. This final report summarizes a collaborative effort to help address these issues through the construction of the Monthly Water Balance...