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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Northwest CASC > FY 2016 Projects ( Show direct descendants )

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Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004–2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography...
Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate. Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
(Abstract from Springer): There is increasing interest among scholars in producing information that is useful and usable to land and natural resource managers in a changing climate. This interest has prompted transitions from scientist- to stakeholder-driven or collaborative approaches to climate science. A common indicator of successful collaboration is whether stakeholders use the information resulting from the projects in which they are engaged. However, detailed examples of how stakeholders use climate information are relatively scarce in the literature, leading to a challenge in understanding what researchers can and should expect and plan for in terms of stakeholder use of research findings. Drawing on theoretical,...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided...
As the Earth’s climate changed in the ancient past, many species moved across the landscape to track adequate environmental conditions. Some species took shelter in remaining pockets of suitable climates, referred to as refugia. For example, refugia harbored species when vast glaciers covered much of the land, allowing them to survive and migrate again across the landscape as temperatures warmed and ice melted. Modern changes in climate are similarly compelling species to move, and some of those species may seek shelter from increasingly hostile conditions in refugia. Modern climate refugia will likely take many different forms. For example, larger-scale macrorefugia may be areas of relative climate stability that...
Thermally enriched air and stormwater runoff from urban areas have been identified as contributing heat sources to downstream surface waters. To date, the study of air quality, cooling, stormwater, and health benefits of urban forests have been widely covered, but surprisingly little research has focused on quantifying the relationship between urban air and stormwater runoff temperatures and furthermore, how these heat sources may affect downstream ecosystems. We measured temperature, water, and weather variables (air, pavement, and runoff temperatures, precipitation, solar radiation), and tree metrics (type, height, canopy cover fraction) at 12 study sites in Portland, Oregon during the warm summer season of 2016...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Droughts and insect outbreaks are primary disturbance processes linking climate change to tree mortality in western North America. Refugia from these disturbances—locations where impacts are less severe relative to the surrounding landscape—may be priorities for conservation, restoration, and monitoring. In this study, hypotheses concerning physical and biological processes supporting refugia were investigated by modelling the landscape controls on disturbance refugia that were identified using remotely sensed vegetation indicators. Refugia were identified at 30-m resolution using anomalies of Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests in southern Oregon, USA, in...
The Northwest Climate Conference (formerly the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference) annually brings together more over 250 participants to share scientific results, challenges, and solutions related to the impacts of climate on people, natural resources, and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest region. The 2016 conference was held November 14 – 16, 2016 in Stevenson, Washington at the Skamania Resort Conference Center. The conference includes a broad range of climate-related topics from all sub-regions of the Northwest, attracting participants from Alaska to California and from the coast to the interior West. It provides a forum for presenting emerging policy and management goals, objectives, and information...
National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) stream permanence classifications (SPC; perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral) are widely used for data visualization and applied science, and have implications for resource policy and management. NHD SPC were assigned using a combination of topographic field surveys and interviews with local residents. However, previous studies indicate that non‐NHD, in situ streamflow observations (NNO) frequently disagree with NHD SPC. We hypothesized that differences in annual climate conditions between map creation years and the years NNO were collected contributed to disagreement between NNO and NHD SPC. We compared NHD SPC to 10,055 NNO (classified as “wet” or “dry”) collected in the Pacific...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts, with major impacts to ecosystems globally. Broad-scale assessments of vegetation responses to drought are needed to anticipate, manage, and potentially mitigate climate-change effects on ecosystems. We quantified the drought sensitivity of vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA, as the percent reduction in vegetation greenness under droughts relative to baseline moisture conditions. At a regional scale, shrub-steppe ecosystems—with drier climates and lower biomass—showed greater drought sensitivity than conifer forests. However, variability in drought sensitivity was considerable within biomes and within ecosystems and was mediated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Understanding streamflow in montane watersheds on regional scales is often incomplete due to a lack of data for small-order streams that link precipitation and snowmelt processes to main stem discharge. This data deficiency is attributed to the prohibitive cost of conventional streamflow measurement methods and the remote location of many small streams. Expedient and low-cost streamflow measurement methods used by resource professionals or citizen scientists can provide scientifically useful solutions to this data deficiency. To this end, four current velocity measurement methods were evaluated in a laboratory flume: the surface float, rising body, velocity head rod, and rising air bubble methods. The methods were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ESA): Natural springs in water‐limited landscapes are biodiversity hotspots and keystone ecosystems that have a disproportionate influence on surrounding landscapes despite their usually small size. Some springs served as evolutionary refugia during previous climate drying, supporting relict species in isolated habitats. Understanding whether springs will provide hydrologic refugia from future climate change is important to biodiversity conservation but is complicated by hydrologic variability among springs, data limitations, and multiple non‐climate threats to groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. We present a conceptual framework for categorizing springs as potentially stable, relative, or transient...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change-driven Dendroctonus ponderosae outbreaks in semi-naïve Pinus albicaulis may result in rapid natural selection for trees with genotypes and phenotypes associated with survival. In this study, we investigated whether survivors were genetically and chemically different from a living cohort of trees that escaped predation due to smaller size and estimated genetic diversity. We also examined how growth rate and climate sensitivity varied between beetle-killed and surviving trees. Dendroctonus ponderosae predominantly kills large diameter trees; therefore, we predicted that large surviving trees would have distinctive genetic profiles and, due to bottlenecking and drift, survivors would have lower genetic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Applied Wetland Science): Wetland conservation increasingly must account for climate change and legacies of previous land-use practices. Playa wetlands provide critical wildlife habitat, but may be impacted by intensifying droughts and previous hydrologic modifications. To inform playa restoration planning, we asked: (1) what are the trends in playa inundation? (2) what are the factors influencing inundation? (3) how is playa inundation affected by increasingly severe drought? (4) do certain playas provide hydrologic refugia during droughts, and (5) if so, how are refugia patterns related to historical modifications? Using remotely sensed surface-water data, we evaluated a 30-year time series (1985–2015)...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Spring‐fed wetlands are ecologically important habitats in arid and semi‐arid regions. Springs have been suggested as possible hydrologic refugia from droughts and climate change; however, springs that depend on recent precipitation or snowmelt for recharge may be vulnerable to warming and drought intensification. Springs that are expected to maintain their ecohydrologic function in a warmer, drier climate may be priorities for conservation and restoration. Identifying such springs is difficult because many springs lack hydrologic records of adequate temporal extent and resolution to assess their resilience to water cycle changes. This study demonstrates proof‐of‐concept for the assessment of certain spring types...
Projected intensification of drought as a result of climate change may reduce the capacity of streams to rear fish, exacerbating the challenge of recovering salmonid populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Without management intervention, some stocks will likely go extinct as stream drying and fragmentation reduce juvenile survival to unsustainable levels. To offset drought‐related mortality, fish rescue programs have proliferated, whereby juvenile salmonids are captured and transferred to off‐site rearing facilities. However, the efficacy of this potential conservation tool remains poorly understood. We developed a life cycle model to examine the implications of fish rescue on the abundance of Coho...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change in the Northwest is causing warmer summer stream flows that can decimate cold-water species like salmon. This problem can be worsened in shoreline embayments or small streams that receive direct stormwater runoff from warm city environments. There has been little assessment, however, at the source: how urban warming – or cooling, such as by tree shade – affects curbside runoff temperatures from streets to storm drains. This research found that warm summer runoff might be cooled at its source via small adaptations in urban forestry, although with an important and unanticipated trade-off between managing street tree canopy type and amount. Evidence was drawn from monitoring a set of residential street...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Wiley Online Library): As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present‐day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent...