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This R code conducts the main changepoint analyses described in the manuscript titled “Evidence for a growing population of eastern migratory monarch butterflies is currently insufficient”, authored by W. E. Thogmartin, J. A. Szymanski, and E. L. Weiser. The code calculates step and segmented changepoints, checks model assumptions for fitted models, calculates the probability of a >=6.05 ha population given a mean expected population of 3.2 ha, calculates the number of additional years required to provide for a statistically significant trend in the event that the current data are not significant, and calculates the probability of continued increase.
The sampling locations provided here were selected as a two-stage Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) sample (Stevens & Olsen 2004). The first stage of the GRTS draw used a master sample developed by the North American Bat Monitoring Program (Loeb et al. 2015) from a 10 x 10 km grid placed over the conterminous U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Each 10 x 10 km grid cell (hereafter, master cell) was assigned a GRTS rank by NABat. The rank represents the priority order in which master cells should ideally be sampled. For the second stage of the draw, sampling points within a master cell were selected. Each point was defined as a 30 x 30 m cell of the GIS raster that defined monarch-relevant habitat. Sampling...
Categories: Data;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: Canada,
Long-term monitoring,
Mexico,
Monarch Butterfly,
Sampling design,
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surveys to estimate the willingness of respondents from Canada, the U.S., and México to invest in conservation for two migratory species, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta) and the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana). These data include characteristics of were conservation payments might occur, of...
Categories: Data,
Data Release - In Progress;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: Canada,
Ecology,
Information Science,
Mexican free-tailed bats,
Mexico,
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surveys to estimate the willingness of respondents from Canada, the U.S., and México to invest in conservation for two migratory species, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta) and the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana). This code was used to analyze the project's data.
These scripts prepare input files and run a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) draw to select sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
The code includes: MonarchThreatsCode.R, which provides all code used in the analysis. Required data includes: FullThreatsData.csv and component_loadings.csv While the code demonstrates how to interpolate the missing data, the FullThreatsData.csv has all missing values filled in. Similarly, the partial least squares demonstrates how the PLS was conducted, but the component_loadings.csv file contains the actual loadings presented in the paper. Outputs include: Partial least squares model results, plots of the partial least squares loadings, exploratory regression analysis, plotting of the parameter estimates from the best model, confounding analysis, structural equation modeling, and other plotting functions depicting...
A dataset consisting of the documented year of first arrival of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) at 596 locations across North America was used to fit a Gaussian process model. The model allows prediction of the year of first arrival of Pd at arbitrary locations. The included dataset consists of these predictions which span the North American continent.
Categories: Data,
Data Release - In Progress;
Tags: North America,
bats,
extinction and extirpation,
farming,
statistical analysis,
Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement...
This code file accompanies a manuscript describing associations of monarch breeding occurrence and abundance with landscape and local characteristics at locations in northern and southern Wisconsin. Context for the study can be obtained from the manuscript (Bruce (nee Harnsberger), A.S., Thogmartin, W.E., Trosen, C., Oberhauser, K., and Gratton, C., In-Press, Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs at patches in Midwest grasslands: Landscape Ecology), metadata for covariate information, and comments within the code. Users interested in the specific models examined in the course of this study may run this code with the associated data file, monarch2020_021920.csv. Data associated with code were collected...
This data file is in long format, comprising time series of hunter abundance and behavior and duck abundance. Hunter information varies by administrative flyway (Mississippi and Central), whereas duck population abundance is summarized for both the Prairie Pothole Region and the continent. Duck information for the Prairie Pothole Region is for the U.S. portion only (Strata 41-49 of the May waterfowl survey) and for 12 duck species, mallard, American wigeon, blue-winged teal, canvasback, gadwall, lesser and greater scaup, green-winged teal, northern pintail, northern shoveler, redhead, ring-necked duck, and ruddy duck.
Categories: Data;
Tags: North America,
Prairie Pothole Region,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
Wildlife Biology,
biota,
Data are population size estimates for monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico as well as 76 potential stressors and 3 correlates. These stressors include disease, pesticide, herbicide, temperature, precipitation, and habitat loss measured for Mexican overwintering area and Southern, North Central, and Northeastern breeding areas.
Categories: Data;
Types: Citation,
Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: Eastern North America,
Extreme weather,
Forest loss,
Monarch butterfly,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
The dataset is comprised of historical observations and predictions of winter colony counts at known sites for three bat species (Myotis lucifugus, Myotis septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus). Predictions of abundance are made at each site for each year from 1990 to 2020. Predictions come from three models, including a piecewise constant interpolation model, and two variations of a log linear mixed effects model. These predictions were used in part to inform the SSA for the three bat species. The log linear mixed models regress log(count+1) on one predictor, the year since detection of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), giving estimates of the population rate of growth (trend) for each site. Flexibility for...
Categories: Data,
Data Release - In Progress;
Tags: North America,
bats,
demography,
extinction and extirpation,
farming,
The dataset is comprised of site-level, regional-level, and species-level future population projections for three bat species (Myotis lucifugus, Myotis septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus) under several future scenarios. Future scenarios can be used to assess population health, and were used in part to inform the SSA for the three bat species. Many different future scenarios are included, defined based on future wind development and white-nose syndrome impacts. Sheets within the table are labeled based on the spatial scale of the projections (species, regional, or site-level), and the scenario column in each sheet indicates which future scenario projections correspond to, labeled based on the severity of wind...
Categories: Data,
Data Release - In Progress;
Tags: North America,
bats,
demography,
extinction and extirpation,
farming,
Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.
To ensure habitat restoration efforts are targeted towards areas maximizing monarch population growth, it is important to understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on monarch occurrence in habitat patches (i.e. grasslands with milkweeds). Over two summers (2018-2019), monarch adults, larvae, and eggs were surveyed at sixty grassland sites in Wisconsin varying in patch size and landscape context. Milkweed density and floral richness were also estimated to characterize local patch quality. Results suggest that optimal sites for monarch habitat restoration are within landscapes with less surrounding habitat and that high milkweed density and floral richness should be conservation goals.
These data are comprised of geo-located breeding season occurrences of Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in North America, 1963-2021. These data were collated from eBird (Cornell Lab of Ornithology) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (US Geological Survey).
Categories: Data;
Tags: Biological Occurrence,
North America,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
Vermivora,
Wildlife Biology,
This code describes graphical and analytical comparisons between monarch butterfly survey data collected during summer breeding, fall migration, and winter.
Categories: Data;
Tags: Danaus plexippus,
Ecology,
Land Use Change,
Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
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