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Abstract (from Ecosphere): Understanding invasive species spread and projecting how distributions will respond to climate change is a central task for ecologists. Typically, current and projected air temperatures are used to forecast future distributions of invasive species based on climate matching in an ecological niche modeling approach. While this approach was originally developed for terrestrial species, it has also been widely applied to aquatic species even though aquatic species do not experience air temperatures directly. In the case of lakes, species respond to lake thermal regimes, which reflect the interaction of climate and lake attributes such as depth, size, and clarity. The result is that adjacent...
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