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Future of Fire in the South Central: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Climate projections for the southern Great Plains, and elsewhere in the U.S., indicate that a hotter future with changes in precipitation amount and seasonality is to be expected. As plants become stressed from these changes, wildfire risk increases. One of the most valuable approaches to reducing the impacts of wildfires is fuel reduction through prescribed burns. Fuel reduction helps minimize the destruction of ecological communities, threats of future flooding, and extensive damages by lessening the intensity of future wildfires. Although safe burning practices can largely minimize the risks, prescribed burns may bring some degree of concern among practitioners. The real and perceived risks may include bodily... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, CASC, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Fire, Fire, Fire, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Fewer tags Time to Restore: Using a Community Based Approach to Identify Key Plant Species for Pollinator Restoration Pollinator restoration requires information about what species to plant and when to plant them to ensure food sources are available throughout the periods when pollinators are active. Changes in climate, including earlier spring warming and warmer fall temperatures, may cause flowering to become out of sync with pollinator activity. When restoring land to support pollinators, managers are challenged to select a mix of species that support pollinators of concern throughout their periods of activity. Existing planting tools have several disadvantages such as, their usability is location specific, they are virtually non-existent for the South Central region, and they do not often account for future changes in plant... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2021, CASC, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Plants, All tags... Plants, Projects by Region, South Central, South Central CASC, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Estimating the Future Effects of Forest Disturbance on Snow Water Resources in a Changing Environment In the Western U.S., approximately 65% of the water supply comes from forested regions with most of the water that feeds local rivers coming from snowmelt that originates in mountain forests. The Rio Grande headwaters (I.e. the primary water generating region of the Rio Grande river) is experiencing large changes to the landscape primarily from forest fires and bark beetle infestations. Already, 85% of the coniferous forests in this region have been affected by the bark beetle, and projections indicate greater changes will occur as temperatures increase. In this area, most of the precipitation falls as snow in the winter, reaches a maximum depth in the late spring, and melts away due to warmer temperatures by early... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2021, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Other Water, Other Water, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Comparative analysis of rhizobial and bacterial communities in experimental cotton fields: Impacts of conventional and conservation soil management in the Texas High Plains Conservative agricultural management strategies pursue long-term ecological benefits through practices such as no-tillage, cover crop, and inherent soil properties management. Farmers, however, are often hesitant to adopt such practices due to lack of experience, initial expense, and concern for low crop productivity. Overcoming this barrier requires novel approaches, such as effectively managing the soil microbiome to attain high productivity at a low cost, especially in a semi-arid region. To study the potential of conservation agriculture, we investigated components of soil bacterial community and rhizobial diversity in long-term experimental cotton fields divided into conventional tillage monoculture systems... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Expanding the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) to the South Central United States The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has several Communities of Practice (CoPs) focused on resource manager needs across the region (e.g. understanding at-risk species and ecosystems, building resilient coastal ecosystems, extreme weather and climate change, etc.). Each CoP has expertise in the subject matter and has been working on projects that are relevant to the resource community, including conducting literature reviews and small-scale pilot projects. The current research project will leverage the expertise of the existing CoPs to enhance the content available through the Conservation and Adaptation Resources Toolbox (CART) as identified through the partnership between the South Central... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2023, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Projects by Region, All tags... Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, South Central, South Central CASC, Fewer tags Cultivating Agave Using Regenerative and Indigenous Methods Chelenzo Farms, located twenty miles south of the city of Santa Fe, New Mexico, is a regenerative farm that applies permaculture, soil health, and agroecology principles. It has three operating principles of research, education, and community. It practices dryland farming, focusing on the cultivation of agave and native plants. With over 200 varieties, agave can be distilled to make liquor, fermented for livestock feed, and made into textiles. In fact, 75% of those varieties have been cultivated in Mexico for thousands of years. Thus, agaves have long supported a variety of pollinators in the Southwest and along the border with Mexico in the Chihuahuan and Sonoran deserts, with the best known one being the... Climatology of 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies associated with May tornado outbreaks in the United States Abstract (from Wiley): This study supports efforts directed toward research on large-scale atmospheric patterns and on the variability of tornado outbreaks. Specifically, we applied rotated principal component analysis to identify synoptic-scale patterns of 500-hPa geopotential height associated with tornado outbreaks in the United States. We created a database of historic tornado outbreaks using kernel density estimation on events composed of at least seven tornadoes of magnitude (E)F2 or higher (major tornado outbreaks) that occurred in May from 1950 to 2019 (91 events). Results of the analysis show that the first three principal components explained the majority, that is, 74% of the total variation. Based on... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Improving Predictive Drought Models with Sensitivity Analysis Drought is a common consequence of climate variability in the south-central U.S., but they are expected to occur more often and become more intense with climate change. Natural resource managers can improve their planning efforts with advance warnings of impending drought. Using input from resource managers in the Chickasaw Nation, this research team previously created models that forecast droughts up to 18 months in advance with information about their expected timing and intensity. Developed for all climate divisions in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, these drought models rely on input from predictor variables associated with global weather patterns like El Niño and La Niña. However, it is unclear... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2023, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, All tags... Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, South Central, South Central CASC, Fewer tags The Role of Forest Structure in Regulating Water Availability and Implications for Natural Resources and Ecosystem Function Wildfire, drought, and insects are reshaping forests in the Western United States in a manner that is being exacerbated by warming temperatures. Disturbance events such as these can significantly alter the amount of land that is covered by forest in an area or region. Consequently, changes in forest cover from disturbance can impact water runoff conditions leading to dangerous flooding, erosion, and water quality issues. These events can be costly for society. In response, many land managers are using forest thinning and prescribed burning practices to reduce disturbance impacts, especially those that are caused by high-severity wildfire. In contrast to the wealth of research on the advantages of forest thinning... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2023, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Fire, Fire, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, Other Water, Other Water, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, South Central, South Central CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Final Report: Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Advancements in wildfire danger modeling may increase wildfire preparedness, and therefore decrease loss of life, property, and habitat due to wildfire. Recent work by our team has shown wildfire danger models may be improved by incorporating soil moisture information. Still, soil moisture—an important determinant of wildfire risk—is not currently used for wildfire danger assessments because adequate soil moisture information has historically been unavailable. Our project addressed this gap by developing and disseminating improved soil moisture estimates and demonstrating their relevance to wildfire danger assessments. Our objectives were to (1) develop an effective model of soil moisture for the Red River and Rio... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas. This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2023, CASC, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Fire, Fire, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, South Central, South Central CASC, Fewer tags Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2019, CASC, Drought, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, South Central, South Central CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Time to Restore: Connecting People, Plants, and Pollinators StoryMap Pollinator restoration presents many challenges, from selecting which species to plant to provide nectar during critical periods, to anticipating how these plant species will respond to changes in climate. A better understanding of flowering and seed timing for critical nectar plants, and the links between this activity and climate, can inform more resilient restoration plantings. We are a team of collaborators from the Bosque Ecosystem Monitoring Program, the Tribal Alliance for Pollinators, the Gulf Coast Phenology Trail, and the USA National Phenology Network, supported by a grant from the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. Our project, Time to Restore: Connecting People, Plants, and... Final Report: Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Training IV Led by university consortium institutions of the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (South Central CASC), this project builds on the successes of similar workshops in 2014, 2016, and 2018 to bring together a cohort of graduate students, post-docs, and early-career environmental professionals within the South Central CASC region and mentor this cohort to become the next generation of USGS leaders and partners. The objectives of the workshop were to: (1) develop the early-career participants’ knowledge, leadership skills, and interdisciplinary collaboration; (2) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the South Central CASC, its place within the U.S. Department... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Adapting irrigated agriculture in the Middle Rio Grande to a warm-dry future Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Study region Middle Section of the Rio Grande Basin (MRG), U.S. Study focus Long-term tradeoffs of technologically possible land and water management interventions were analyzed to adapt irrigated agriculture to growing water scarcity in a desert environment under a projected warm-dry future. Nineteen different intervention scenarios were investigated to evaluate potential watershed-scale agricultural water savings and associated water budget impacts in the MRG. The interventions are based on (i) management innovations of growers in implementing deficit irrigation and changing cropping patterns using existing crops, (ii) changing cropping patterns by introducing new alternative drought-... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Susceptibility of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout to Displacement by Non-Native Brown Trout and Implications for Future Management The Rio Grande cutthroat trout is New Mexico’s state fish; but habitat loss and non-native trout invasions threaten the persistence of this fish throughout the remaining 12% of its historic range. Stakeholders, including state agencies, federal agencies, Tribal nations, Pueblos, and private groups are particularly concerned about the impact that non-native brown trout have on native cutthroat trout. This project will be the first to demonstrate how non-native brown trout negatively affect Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations. The project has two primary objectives: 1) compare the health and characteristics of native Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout in areas both with and without invasive brown trout in cold and warm... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2018, CASC, Completed, Fish, Fish, All tags... Projects by Region, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, South Central, South Central CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, invasive species, production, temperature, Fewer tags Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2019, Birds, Birds, Birds, CASC, All tags... Grasslands and Plains, Grasslands and Plains, Landscapes, Landscapes, National CASC, National CASC, National CASC, North Central, North Central CASC, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, South Central, South Central CASC, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2020, Alaska, Alaska, Alaska CASC, CASC, All tags... Completed, National CASC, National CASC, National CASC, Northeast, Northeast, Northeast CASC, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands, Pacific Islands CASC, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Southeast, Southeast, Southeast CASC, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, State of the Science, State of the Science, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tribes and Pueblos in OK, TX, NM, and LA Climate change has been, is, and will continue to affect Indigenous peoples across the south-central United States, amplifying a need to plan for and adapt to these changes before the impacts become catastrophic. Since June 2012, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has partnered with Tribes across Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas to conduct research, education, and outreach related to climate change, adaptation, and resilience; however, much more work is needed to prepare for climate change impacts on Indigenous lands, waters, and people. In this project, the research team will focus on strengthening South Central CASC partnerships with the Tribes and Pueblos in the South Central... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2021, CASC, Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous Peoples, Projects by Region, All tags... Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, South Central, South Central, South Central CASC, Tribes and Tribal Organizations, Tribes and Tribal Organizations, Fewer tags 1 2 3 4 5 ... 9 »