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Abstract Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but...
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Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems is crucial for successful grassland management in the 21st century. In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (USGS NC CASC) began a project to establish a baseline of information to best serve grassland managers (that is, those who develop grassland management plans or implement those plans on the ground) at Federal, State, and Tribal agen-cies and nongovernmental organizations to help meet regional grassland management goals. This project “A Synthesis of Climate Impacts, Stakeholder Needs, and Adaptation in Northern Great Plains Grassland Ecosystems” (hereafter, the Grasslands Synthesis Project),...
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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
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We reviewed existing and planned adaptation activities of federal, tribal, state, and local governments and the private sector in the United States (U.S.) to understand what types of adaptation activities are underway across different sectors and scales throughout the country. Primary sources of review included material officially submitted for consideration in the upcoming 2013 U.S. National Climate Assessment and supplemental peer-reviewed and grey literature. Although substantial adaptation planning is occurring in various sectors, levels of government, and the private sector, few measures have been implemented and even fewer have been evaluated. Most adaptation actions to date appear to be incremental changes,...
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The broadly shared information needs for grassland managers in the North Central region to meet conservation goals in a changing climate are presented and ranked as highly relevant, somewhat relevant, or not relevant for federal, state, tribal, and non-governmental grassland-managing entities.
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This dataset provides seasonal means of 7 WRF variables for the Hawaiian Islands region including: rainfall (PR), 2m temperatures (TAS), 90th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR90), 99th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR99), 90th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS90), 99th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS99), and the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) The files are organized and labeled by simulation period (present-day:1996-2005 and future: 2026-2035), season (wet or dry), and PDO phase (positive or negative). For a full description of the WRF model and simulations, please refer to related publication. ​Data are also available from a federal repository upon request....
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Previous research identified species of invasive plants in Hawai'i which are highly flammable and act as fuels in wildfires across Hawai'i. This work aimed to map the distribution of these species (largely grasses) around the islands of Hawai'i with the goal of using the locations for species distribution modeling. All data represents presence data, no absence data were recorded. Data are largely from within the past 20 years, but some georeferenced herbarium specimens go as far back as 1905. Data were obtained from georeferenced herbarium specimens, vegetation plot data, citizen science data (iNaturalist) reviewed by the authors, and data from roadside surveys conducted as part of this research to map these species....
U.S. States (Generalized) represents the fifty states and the District of Columbia of the United States. The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) Science Agenda outlines the overall science direction for the NW CSC in 2012-2016. It forms an integral part of the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2016 and was developed with input from cultural and natural resource managers in the Northwest. The Science Agenda guides the NW CSC and its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee ( ESAC) in the identification of annual and long-term research priorities to be funded by the NW CSC.
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Abstract Background Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses,...
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These model objects are the outputs of three Boosted Regression Tree models (for three different time periods) to explore the role of climate change and variability in driving ecological change and transformation. Response variables were the proportion of sites in each ecoregion with peak rates of change at 100-year time steps. Predictor variables included temperature anomaly, temperature trend, temperature variability, precipitation anomaly, precipitation trend, precipitation variability and ecoregion, also at 100-yr time steps. Models focused on the most distant time periods (0-21000 BP and 7500 - 21000 BP) show that rapid vegetation change was initiated across these landscapes once a 2 ℃ temperature increase...
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Fish catch and effort data for three species caught in gill nets and trap nets between 1988 and 2019 as part of Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys conducted during the summer and early fall are included from over 1,300 Minnesota lakes. The three fish species included are: bluegill (Lepomis marochirus) a warm-water adapted species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) a cool-water adapted species, and cisco (Coregonus artedi) a cold-water adapted species. Additional data concerning lake characteristics and surrounding land cover were also included. Mean July lake surface temperature was calculated using simulated daily water temperatures. Watershed land use including agricultural, barren,...
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This file provides a table of all the of Species of Greatest Conservation Need listed in the North Central states' (MT, WY, CO, ND, SD, NE, and KS) State Wildlife Action Plans as of summer 2020. Species are organized by the number of states which listed them as Species of Greatest Conservation Need, and then by scientific name. Federal status is also provided for each species. This table is adapted from an unpublished species list compiled by the North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center.
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This project investigated how climate change over the last 21,000 years, which was characterized by significant warming, influenced vegetation in the Southern and Middle Rockies. We found that rapid vegetation change was initiated across these landscapes once a 2 ℃ temperature increase was realized and again recently with reduced rainfall. Southwesterly slopes in the Southern Rockies were prone to rapid change, otherwise landscape features didn’t have a strong effect. We also examined vegetation transformations (e.g., sagebrush steppe switches to a lodgepole pine forest) and identified between one and four vegetation transformations at each site, for a total of 60 transformations, over half of which occurred rapidly....
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Climate change affects the abundance and distribution of species worldwide. Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are extremely sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. Here, we combine empirical observations of species abundance and environmental conditions across the landscape with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to changes in temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. We show that predicted changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold,...
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Grasslands in the Great Plains are of ecological, economic, and cultural importance in the United States. In response to a need to understand how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century, the U.S. Geological Survey North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center led a synthesis of peer-reviewed climate and ecology literature relevant to grassland management in the North Central Region (including Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). This synthesis was done to begin to address grassland managers’ information needs and identify research gaps. This open-file report summarizes the impacts of climate change and variability...
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This dataset provides daily WRF output for the Hawaiian Islands region for the following variables: daily rainfall (RAINNC), daily 2m temperature (TMEAN), max 2m temperature (TMAX), and min 2m temperature (TMIN) These quantities are provided for 20 WRF simulations over the time periods (1996-2005) and (2026-2035). Files are labeled based on the WRF simulation and year. (WRF 1-5 and 11-15: negative PDO phase, WRF 6-10 and 16-20: positive PDO phase). ​Data are also available from a federal repository upon request. Contact: casc@usgs.gov.
Habitat condition, both acres flooded and timing of inundation, were determined using remote sensing images from Landsat 5 and 8 for the Lower Klamath Basin, the representative basin for the southern Oregon and northeast California (SONEC) region. The dataset includes proportional water coverage (acres) for 8,825 distinct patches in Lower Klamath over 6 different time periods (1984-89; 1990-94; 1995-99; 2000-04; 2005-09; 2010-16), with a total of 368,301 acres of possibly foreageable land.
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These model objects are the outputs of two Bayesian hierarchical models (one for the Middle Rockies and one for the Southern Rockies) to explore the role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven ecological change and transformation. We used the rate of change for each site at 100-yr time steps as the response variable, and included elevation, CHILI, aspect, slope, and TPI as fixed effects in the models, run separately for each ecoregion. We included a random intercept of site to quantify the magnitude of site-level variation in rate-of-change that may be unaccounted for by our covariates.
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This database integrates a list of vegetation transformations that occurred across the Southern and Middle Rockies since 21,000 years ago, the age of occurrence, the type of vegetation switch that occurred, whether the rates of vegetation change peaked at that time, and when applicable, the duration of peak rates of vegetation change.
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We developed a screening system to identify introduced plant species that are likely to increase wildfire risk, using the Hawaiian Islands to test the system and illustrate how the system can be applied to inform management decisions. Expert-based fire risk scores derived from field experiences with 49 invasive species in Hawai′i were used to train a machine learning model that predicts expert fire risk scores from among 21 plant traits obtained from literature and databases. The model revealed that just four variables can identify species categorized as higher fire risk by experts with 90% accuracy, while low risk species were identified with 79% accuracy. We then used the predictive model to screen 365 naturalized...
    map background search result map search result map A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC) Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. The role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven rapid ecological change over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. PaleoTransformation Analysis Model Code Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses Species of Greatest Conservation Need in the North Central Region Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Multi-Decadal Simulation of Marsh Topography Under Sea Level Rise and Episodic Sediment Loads Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models Code for Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models Grassland Management Priorities for the North Central Region Synthesis of Climate and Ecological Science to Support Grassland Management Priorities in the North Central Region Fire Risk Scores from Predictive Model Based on Flammability and Fire Ecology of Non-Native Hawaiian Plants from 2020-2021 Water Coverage Data in Lower Klamath Basin, 1984-2016 Locations of Fire Promoting Alien Plants Across the Islands of Hawaii Based on Field Surveys and Museum Collections from 1903-2023 Daily WRF output (PI-CASC) Multi-Decadal Simulation of Marsh Topography Under Sea Level Rise and Episodic Sediment Loads Water Coverage Data in Lower Klamath Basin, 1984-2016 Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models Code for Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. The role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven rapid ecological change over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. PaleoTransformation Analysis Model Code Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC) Fire Risk Scores from Predictive Model Based on Flammability and Fire Ecology of Non-Native Hawaiian Plants from 2020-2021 Locations of Fire Promoting Alien Plants Across the Islands of Hawaii Based on Field Surveys and Museum Collections from 1903-2023 Daily WRF output (PI-CASC) Species of Greatest Conservation Need in the North Central Region Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Grassland Management Priorities for the North Central Region Synthesis of Climate and Ecological Science to Support Grassland Management Priorities in the North Central Region Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: frontline observations and management responses A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed