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The rasters in this dataset represent modeled outputs of potential fire connectivity and relative flow patterns in the Great Basin. We define ‘fire connectivity’ as the landscape’s capacity to facilitate fire transmission from one point on the landscape to another. We applied an omnidirectional circuit theory algorithm (Omniscape) to model fire connectivity in the Great Basin of the western United States. We used predicted rates of fire spread to approximate conductance and calculated current densities to identify connections among areas with high spread rates. We calculated the cumulative current density as well as normalized cumulative current density, with the outputs included here as raster data.
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This dataset contains a projection of land use and land cover for the conterminous United States for the period 2001 - 2061. This projection used the USGS's LUCAS (Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator) model to project a business as usual scenario of land cover and land use change. By running the LUCAS model on the USGS's YETI high performance computer and parallelizing the computation, we ran 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on empirically observed rates of change at a relatively fine scale (270m). We sampled from multiple observed rates of change at the county level to introduce heterogeneity into the Monte Carlo simulations. Using this approach allowed the model to project different outcomes that were summarized...
The area burned by wildfires has increased in recent decades and is expected to increase in the future for many watersheds worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas within watersheds increase soil erosion rates, which can increase the downstream accumulation of sediment in rivers and reservoirs. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that post-fire sedimentation is projected to increase for more than ¾ of watersheds by at least 10 % and for more than ¼ of watersheds by at least 100 % by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. In this region, 65 % of the water supply originates from forested lands that are prone to wildfire, and many of the watersheds with projected increases in sedimentation...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112716308532): Across the western United States, the three primary drivers of tree mortality and carbon balance are bark beetles, timber harvest, and wildfire. While these agents of forest change frequently overlap, uncertainty remains regarding their interactions and influence on specific subsequent fire effects such as change in canopy cover. Acquisition of pre- and post-fire Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data on the 2012 Pole Creek Fire in central Oregon provided an opportunity to isolate and quantify fire effects coincident with specific agents of change. This study characterizes the influence of pre-fire mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus...
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We created a single map of surface water presence by intersecting water classes from available land cover products (National Wetland Inventory, Gap Analysis Program, National Land Cover Database, and Dynamic Surface Water Extent) across the U.S. state of Arizona. We derived classified samples for four wetland classes from the harmonized map: water, herbaceous wetlands, wooded wetlands, and non-wetland cover. In Google Earth Engine (GEE) we developed a random forest model that combined the training data with spatially explicit predictor variables of vegetation greenness indices, wetness indices, seasonal index variation, topographic variables, and hydrologic parameters. The final product is a wall-to-wall map of...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716305016): Measuring post-fire effects at landscape scales is critical to an ecological understanding of wildfire effects. Predominantly this is accomplished with either multi-spectral remote sensing data or through ground-based field sampling plots. While these methods are important, field data is usually limited to opportunistic post-fire observations, and spectral data often lacks validation with specific variables of change. Additional uncertainty remains regarding how best to account for environmental variables influencing fire effects (e.g., weather) for which observational data cannot easily be acquired, and whether pre-fire agents of...
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The project aimed to use existing models and data to understand how wildfires (number, size, and location) and land-use change will affect watersheds, and therefore water supply, under current conditions and future climates (through 2050) in the western U.S. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to affect water supply in two major ways: 1) decreased water availability, and 2) increased risk to watersheds via loses from fire. As the western population is projected to grow by 310 million people by 2100, this will potentially increase demand for diminishing supplies if housing growth occurs in rangelands or forested lands. Understanding watershed vulnerabilities due to changing climate,...
...About 300 miles away from Kolden’s office at the University of Idaho in Moscow, is the Boise office of the US Geological Survey (USGS)’s Western Geographic Science Center and the base of Jason Kreitler, a USGS research geographer. Like Kolden, Kreitler has spent considerable time thinking about the policies that shape wildland fire management. However, Kreitler is examining the problem with a different lens, using economics and social science. Kreitler explains his research focus like this: “We have fixed budgets for most, if not all, of our public land management, so the question is, how do we optimize the use of those funds to best meet our conservation goals, like protecting biodiversity or ecosystem services?...
Baltimore, MD, USA: In recent years, wildfires have burned trees and homes to the ground across many states in the western U.S., but the ground itself has not gotten away unscathed. Wildfires, which are on the rise throughout the west as a result of prolonged drought and climate change, can alter soil properties and make it more vulnerable to erosion. A new study shows that the increase in wildfires may double soil erosion in some western U.S. states by 2050, and all that dirt ends up in streams, clogging creeks and degrading water quality. Read More in the ​AAAS News Release >>
From Dispatches in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Read more here.
Abstract (from CSIRO): Remote sensing products provide a vital understanding of wildfire effects across a landscape, but detection and delineation of low- and mixed-severity fire remain difficult. Although data provided by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project are frequently used to assess severity in the United States, alternative indices can offer improvement in the measurement of low-severity fire effects and would be beneficial for future product development and adoption. This research note evaluated one such alternative, the Mid-Infrared Bi-Spectral Index (MIRBI), which was developed in savannah ecosystems to isolate spectral changes caused by burning and reduce noise from other factors. MIRBI,...
A growing number of wildfire-burned areas throughout the western United States are expected to increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, causing more sediment to be present in downstream rivers and reservoirs, according to a new study by the U.S. Geological Survey.
    map background search result map search result map Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures A National Land Use And Land Cover Projection For Threat Assessment And Conservation Planning Circuit-based potential fire connectivity and relative flow patterns in the Great Basin, United States, 270 meters Wetlands in the state of Arizona Wetlands in the state of Arizona Circuit-based potential fire connectivity and relative flow patterns in the Great Basin, United States, 270 meters A National Land Use And Land Cover Projection For Threat Assessment And Conservation Planning Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures