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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > USGS Data Release Products ( Show all descendants )

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A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2016. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties...
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We produce the 2017 one-year seismic hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one-year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one-year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma-Kansas, the Raton Basin...