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When climate models are developed, researchers test how well they replicate the climate system by using them to model past climate. Ideally, the model output will match the climate conditions that were actually recorded in the past, indicating that the model correctly characterizes how the climate system works and can be used to reliably project future conditions. However, this approach assumes that models that reliably project past climate conditions will accurately predict future climate conditions, even though the climate system might have changed. This research contributes to generating more reliable local-scale climate projections by testing the assumption that the climatological relationships which existed...
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Regional assessments of the impacts of climate change on both human systems and the natural environment require high-resolution projections to see the effects of global-scale change on the local environment. This project sought to address a critical and generally overlooked assumption inherent to these projections of regional, multi-decadal climate change: that the statistical relationship between global climate model simulation outputs and real, observed climate data remain constant over time. Utilizing a “perfect--‐model” experimental design and the output of two high-resolution global climate model simulations, this study evaluated and reported on the ability of three different methods to simulate current and...
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Led by the consortium of the South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC), this project developed and implemented a professional development workshop for graduate students, post-docs, and early career researchers within the SC CSC region. The objectives were to: (1) introduce participants to the goals, structure, and unique research-related challenges of the SC-CSC and its place within the U.S. Department of the Interior and the larger CSC network, offering them insight into how their research fits into the broader research priority goals and its eventual applicability to end user needs across the region; (2) provide an opportunity for participants to present their research to fellow peers; (3) facilitate interdisciplinary...
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Global climate models (GCMs) are a tool used to model historical climate and project future conditions. In order to apply these global-scale datasets to answer local- and regional-scale climate questions, GCMs undergo a process known as “downscaling”. Since there are many different approaches to downscaling there associated sources of uncertainty; however, downscaled data can be highly valuable for management decision-making if used with a knowledge of its limitations and appropriate applications. In order to use downscaled data appropriately, scientists and managers need to understand how the climate projections made by various downscaling methods are affected by uncertainties in the climate system (such as greenhouse...
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Investigating the complex natural and cultural resource management challenges we face today requires building diverse, interdisciplinary research teams. Robust stakeholder engagement is also critical for ensuring that publicly funded science answers questions that are relevant to natural and cultural resource management decisions. Early career scientists who learn how to engage with multi-disciplinary research teams and stakeholders in the early stages of their career have a competitive advantage in the workforce and can help develop actionable science that addresses critical management questions. This project built upon the successes of the 2014 Early Career Training to develop and host a week-long professional...
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Changing temperature and precipitation patterns in the South Central U.S are already having an impact on wildlife. Hotter and drier conditions are prompting some species to move in search of cooler conditions, while other species are moving into warmer areas that were once unsuitable for them. These changes in the distribution of wildlife populations present challenges for wildlife managers, hunters, tribal communities, and others who are making decisions about wildlife stewardship. This project examined the effect of shifting climate conditions on 20 species of conservation concern in the South Central United States. These species, which include the black-tailed prairie dog and the lesser prairie-chicken, were...
    map background search result map search result map Comparing and Evaluating Different Models to Simulate Current and Future Temperature and Precipitation Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Testing Downscaled Climate Projections: Is Past Performance an Indicator of Future Accuracy? Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Regional Graduate Student and Early Career Researcher Training II Modeling the Effects of Climate and Land Use Change on Crucial Wildlife Habitat Regional Graduate Student and Early Career Researcher Training II Regional Graduate Student, Post-Doc, and Early Career Researcher Workshop Developing and Analyzing Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the South Central U.S. Testing Downscaled Climate Projections: Is Past Performance an Indicator of Future Accuracy? Comparing and Evaluating Different Models to Simulate Current and Future Temperature and Precipitation