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This R code conducts the main changepoint analyses described in the manuscript titled “Evidence for a growing population of eastern migratory monarch butterflies is currently insufficient”, authored by W. E. Thogmartin, J. A. Szymanski, and E. L. Weiser. The code calculates step and segmented changepoints, checks model assumptions for fitted models, calculates the probability of a >=6.05 ha population given a mean expected population of 3.2 ha, calculates the number of additional years required to provide for a statistically significant trend in the event that the current data are not significant, and calculates the probability of continued increase.
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The sampling locations provided here were selected as a two-stage Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) sample (Stevens & Olsen 2004). The first stage of the GRTS draw used a master sample developed by the North American Bat Monitoring Program (Loeb et al. 2015) from a 10 x 10 km grid placed over the conterminous U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Each 10 x 10 km grid cell (hereafter, master cell) was assigned a GRTS rank by NABat. The rank represents the priority order in which master cells should ideally be sampled. For the second stage of the draw, sampling points within a master cell were selected. Each point was defined as a 30 x 30 m cell of the GIS raster that defined monarch-relevant habitat. Sampling...
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Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surveys to estimate the willingness of respondents from Canada, the U.S., and México to invest in conservation for two migratory species, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta) and the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana). These data include characteristics of were conservation payments might occur, of...
Migratory species often provide ecosystem service benefits to people in one country while receiving habitat support in other countries. The multinational cooperation necessary to ensure continued provisioning of these benefits by migrational processes may be informed by understanding the benefits that people in different countries derive from migratory wildlife. We conducted stated preferences surveys to estimate the willingness of respondents from Canada, the U.S., and México to invest in conservation for two migratory species, the northern pintail duck (Anas acuta) and the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana). This code was used to analyze the project's data.
These scripts prepare input files and run a Generalized Random Tessellation Stratified (GRTS) draw to select sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
The code includes: MonarchThreatsCode.R, which provides all code used in the analysis. Required data includes: FullThreatsData.csv and component_loadings.csv While the code demonstrates how to interpolate the missing data, the FullThreatsData.csv has all missing values filled in. Similarly, the partial least squares demonstrates how the PLS was conducted, but the component_loadings.csv file contains the actual loadings presented in the paper. Outputs include: Partial least squares model results, plots of the partial least squares loadings, exploratory regression analysis, plotting of the parameter estimates from the best model, confounding analysis, structural equation modeling, and other plotting functions depicting...
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A dataset consisting of the documented year of first arrival of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) at 596 locations across North America was used to fit a Gaussian process model. The model allows prediction of the year of first arrival of Pd at arbitrary locations. The included dataset consists of these predictions which span the North American continent.
This code file accompanies a manuscript describing associations of monarch breeding occurrence and abundance with landscape and local characteristics at locations in northern and southern Wisconsin. Context for the study can be obtained from the manuscript (Bruce (nee Harnsberger), A.S., Thogmartin, W.E., Trosen, C., Oberhauser, K., and Gratton, C., In-Press, Landscape- and local- level variables affect monarchs at patches in Midwest grasslands: Landscape Ecology), metadata for covariate information, and comments within the code. Users interested in the specific models examined in the course of this study may run this code with the associated data file, monarch2020_021920.csv. Data associated with code were collected...
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This data file is in long format, comprising time series of hunter abundance and behavior and duck abundance. Hunter information varies by administrative flyway (Mississippi and Central), whereas duck population abundance is summarized for both the Prairie Pothole Region and the continent. Duck information for the Prairie Pothole Region is for the U.S. portion only (Strata 41-49 of the May waterfowl survey) and for 12 duck species, mallard, American wigeon, blue-winged teal, canvasback, gadwall, lesser and greater scaup, green-winged teal, northern pintail, northern shoveler, redhead, ring-necked duck, and ruddy duck.
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Data are population size estimates for monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico as well as 76 potential stressors and 3 correlates. These stressors include disease, pesticide, herbicide, temperature, precipitation, and habitat loss measured for Mexican overwintering area and Southern, North Central, and Northeastern breeding areas.
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The dataset is comprised of historical observations and predictions of winter colony counts at known sites for three bat species (Myotis lucifugus, Myotis septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus). Predictions of abundance are made at each site for each year from 1990 to 2020. Predictions come from three models, including a piecewise constant interpolation model, and two variations of a log linear mixed effects model. These predictions were used in part to inform the SSA for the three bat species. The log linear mixed models regress log(count+1) on one predictor, the year since detection of Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), giving estimates of the population rate of growth (trend) for each site. Flexibility for...
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The dataset is comprised of site-level, regional-level, and species-level future population projections for three bat species (Myotis lucifugus, Myotis septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus) under several future scenarios. Future scenarios can be used to assess population health, and were used in part to inform the SSA for the three bat species. Many different future scenarios are included, defined based on future wind development and white-nose syndrome impacts. Sheets within the table are labeled based on the spatial scale of the projections (species, regional, or site-level), and the scenario column in each sheet indicates which future scenario projections correspond to, labeled based on the severity of wind...
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Demographic look up tables allow the translation of a population growth rate, which is estimable from count data, to a set of vital rates parameterizing the birth and survival processes of the population. These tables are used in the BatTool R package to produce realistic simulations of population abundance trajectories given a range of population growth rates.
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To ensure habitat restoration efforts are targeted towards areas maximizing monarch population growth, it is important to understand the effects of landscape heterogeneity on monarch occurrence in habitat patches (i.e. grasslands with milkweeds). Over two summers (2018-2019), monarch adults, larvae, and eggs were surveyed at sixty grassland sites in Wisconsin varying in patch size and landscape context. Milkweed density and floral richness were also estimated to characterize local patch quality. Results suggest that optimal sites for monarch habitat restoration are within landscapes with less surrounding habitat and that high milkweed density and floral richness should be conservation goals.
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These data are comprised of geo-located breeding season occurrences of Blue-winged Warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) in North America, 1963-2021. These data were collated from eBird (Cornell Lab of Ornithology) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (US Geological Survey).
These data and code were collected to support the development of a modeling framework that integrates local daily weather conditions and land cover with individual energetics and morphology to simulate mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and northern pintail (Anas acuta) migration across the Northern Hemisphere.The simulated birds move across a discretized landscape of 20 by 20 mile nodes. Provided data and code allow for a model to simulate avian migration from September 1st, 2019, through December 31st, 2020. There are 6 zip files included in this data release. 1. MigrationModel_2023.zip contains the model code used to simulate bird movement. It requires the files NodeSpecificData_2019.txt and ENV_MAT.csv to function....


map background search result map search result map Monarch Threats Analysis: data Priority sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Future Projections of Known North American Bat Populations for 3 Species (2020-2060), Processed from the NABat Database Winter Colony Counts from 1990-2020 In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Status and Trends of Known North American Bat Populations for 3 Species from 1990-2020, Processed from the NABat Database Winter Colony Counts In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Gaussian Process Model Predictions for the Spread of White-Nose Syndrome across North America Monarch Butterfly patch and landscape data for Wisconsin, 2018-2019 Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code Blue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021 North American duck populations and the Central U.S. hunters who hunt them Code and data for 'Confirmation of a decline in the summer population of the monarch butterfly due to habitat loss' Monarch Butterfly patch and landscape data for Wisconsin, 2018-2019 Code and data for 'Confirmation of a decline in the summer population of the monarch butterfly due to habitat loss' Blue-winged and Golden-winged Warbler Breeding Season Occurrences in North America, 1932-2021 In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Gaussian Process Model Predictions for the Spread of White-Nose Syndrome across North America North American duck populations and the Central U.S. hunters who hunt them In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Future Projections of Known North American Bat Populations for 3 Species (2020-2060), Processed from the NABat Database Winter Colony Counts from 1990-2020 In Support of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 3-Bat Species Status Assessment: Status and Trends of Known North American Bat Populations for 3 Species from 1990-2020, Processed from the NABat Database Winter Colony Counts Priority sampling locations for the Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, data Multi-species, multi-country analysis reveals North Americans are willing to pay for transborder migratory species conservation, code Monarch Threats Analysis: data