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Grasslands in the northern Great Plains are important ecosystems that support local economies, tribal communities, livestock grazing, diverse plant and animal communities, and large-scale migrations of big game ungulates, grassland birds, and waterfowl. Climate change and variability impact how people and animals live on and interact with grasslands, and can bring more frequent droughts, fires, or new plant species that make managing these landscapes challenging. Understanding how climate change and variability will impact grassland ecosystems and their management in the 21st century first requires a synthesis of what is known across all of these scales and a gap analysis to identify key areas of focus for future...
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As climate change progresses, profound environmental changes are becoming a widespread concern. A new management paradigm is developing to address this concern with a framework that encourages strategic decisions to resist, accept, or direct ecological trajectories. Effective use of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework requires the scientific community to describe the range of plausible ecological conditions managers might face, while recognizing limits to our ability to predict precisely where or how specific climatic changes may unfold or how complex environmental systems will respond - the climatic future does not fully determine the ecological one. Recent advances have improved development and delivery...
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Pinyon pine woodlands are among the most widespread and iconic vegetation types in the western United States and support recreation, resource extraction, grazing, and cultural enrichment. However, severe drought conditions have recently caused dramatic mortality of pinyon pines, creating concern about the long-term impact of increasing aridity on the viability of pinyon woodlands. Ecological transformations, or regime shifts, are rapid reorganizations of an ecosystem’s species composition, governing processes, and functions. The goal of this project is to investigate ecological transformation across the Western U.S, characterize the environmental drivers of these changes in vegetation, and apply those insights...
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Project Overview Prairie dog colonies in North America’s Central Grasslands undergo cycles of collapse and recovery caused by the non-native sylvatic plague, and each phase of the cycle negatively affects wildlife or livestock. Researchers supported by this North Central-CASC project will develop a decision-support web tool for users to predict prairie dog colony dynamics under changing climatic conditions to help optimize management strategies of wildlife and cattle. Project Summary Prairie dogs are crucial to North America’s Central Grasslands, creating habitat for other wildlife by digging burrows and clipping vegetation, and serving as a key food source for many predators. However, the sylvatic plague, a non-native...
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In the North Central U.S., drought is a dominant driver of ecological, economic, and social stress. Drought conditions have occurred in the region due to lower precipitation, extended periods of high temperatures and evaporative demand, or a combination of these factors. This project will continue ongoing efforts to identify and address climate science challenges related to drought, climate extremes, and the water cycle that are important for natural resource managers and scientists in the North Central region, to support adaptation planning. To accomplish this goal, researchers sought to (1) provide data and synthesis on drought processes in the region and on how evaporative stress on ecosystems will change during...
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Ecological drought impacts ecosystems across the U.S. that support a wide array of economic activity and ecosystem services. Managing drought-vulnerable natural resources is a growing challenge for federal, state and Tribal land managers. Plant communities and animal populations are strongly linked to patterns of drought and soil moisture availability. As a result, ecosystems may be heavily altered by future changes in precipitation and soil moisture that are driven by climate change. Although this vulnerability is well recognized, developing accurate information about the potential consequences of climate change for ecological drought is difficult because the soil moisture conditions that plants experience are...
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Across the western U.S., pinyon and juniper trees are expanding into sagebrush and grassland plant communities. This vegetation change has been perceived to have a significant impact on the economic value of these grasslands, which support activities such as livestock grazing and hunting, but expanding pinyon and juniper forests may also lead to increased risk of fire. Over the past several decades pinyon-juniper forests have been removed across large areas of land to improve wildlife habitat and grazing land productivity while reducing risks of wildland fire. What isn’t known is whether these strategies are effective in reaching this goal, especially given that our future climate will likely be hotter and drier...
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A rapidly changing climate during this century poses a high risk for impacts to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods. A better understanding of how climate change might alter temperature, precipitation, heat stress, water availability and other extreme weather metrics in the coming century would be useful to natural resource managers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service in the North Central region. Particularly, when they prepare to conduct Species Status Assessments to better evaluate risk to ecosystems, biodiversity and traditional livelihoods resulting from a changing climate. Scientists have traditionally gone through the time intensive process of extracting and analyzing different climate datasets...
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Raptor populations are already seeing the effects of climate change through impacts on migration biology and vital rates (i.e. changes in the size and composition of a population). However, the decision framework used by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) to estimate population trends and set allowable take limits from commercial and recreational activities does not take into account how birds of prey are affected by climate variability. Given that climate change is already impacting raptors, assumptions of unchanging population rates are increasingly unrealistic and cast doubt on predictions of flyway-scale allowable take derived from existing frameworks. Flyway-scale allowable take refers to take limits set...
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The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most critical breeding habitats for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. This current conservation approach assumes that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions, however, due to changes in the area’s hydrology this may not be the case. Understanding how climate change may impact these wetland and grassland ecosystems is key for management...
    map background search result map search result map Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau Creating a Decision Support Tool for Setting Sustainable Raptor Take Limits in a Changing Climate Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S. A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate Developing a Decision Support Framework for Prioritizing Pinyon Juniper Forest Treatments on the Colorado Plateau Synthesis of Climate Impacts and Adaptation on Grassland Ecosystems in the Northern Great Plains Foundational Science Area: Ecological Drought, Climate Extremes, and the Water Cycle in the North Central U.S. Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Supporting U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Species Status Assessments Efforts with Climate Scenario Planning Tools A Decision Support Tool for Prairie Dog and Cattle Coexistence in a Changing Climate Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region Creating a Decision Support Tool for Setting Sustainable Raptor Take Limits in a Changing Climate Developing High-Resolution Soil Moisture Projections for the Contiguous U.S.