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Coastal management decisions are complex and include challenging tradeoffs. Decision science offers a useful framework to address such complex problems. We illustrate the process with several coastal restoration studies. Our capstone example is based on a recent barrier island restoration assessment project at Dauphin Island, Alabama, which included the development of geomorphological and ecological models that forecast environmental changes over a 10 year time period from 2015 to 2025. The proposed framework aims to serve as a tool to assist coastal managers with the process of restoration. Specifically, we discuss the importance of considering concepts and techniques from ecology, coastal geology, geomorphology,...
1) Raw parcel-level habitat data for the South Carolina Lowcountry surrounding Cape Romain NWR and Francis Marion NF, from current current conditions and for three projected sea-level rise futures based on SLAMM model outputs, NLCD land cover and the projected distribution of sea levels for 2050. 2) a table of parcel identification numbers (without georeference) with parcel size (Ha) and sub-group identity. 3) Optimization-model derived reserve design portfolios that define the Pareto-optimal frontier for each sub-group and for four budget scenarios along axes of reserve design benefits and risk.
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This data release includes the data and computer code that we produced to fit two open-robust design removal models developed to simultaneously model population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class integrated population model (IPM) that used prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. To evaluate the effectiveness of management programs, we applied both models to a multi-year, removal trapping time-series data set of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae) in three management areas of South Florida collected from 2016-1018....
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The dataset contains estimates (low, estimate, high) of 12 population parameters for the wood turtle (Glyptemys insculpta) from the literature and experts.
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This dataset is from expert elicitation of a panel of 15 experts with knowledge of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and its impacts on coral reefs. We gathered this group of 15 participants with diverse expertise who had previously studied SCTLD including at universities and various government agencies as microbiologists, pathologists, disease ecologists, population ecologists, and coral experts. Participants represented marine disease experts in Florida, Hawaii, South Carolina, and the US Virgin Islands. We then used a rapid prototyping approach (Runge and Converse, 2017) to elicit, structure, and evaluate existing knowledge regarding the etiology of SCTLD. Our approach began with eliciting hypotheses about...
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America (ESA): Climate change and urban growth impact habitats, species, and ecosystem services. To buffer against global change, an established adaptation strategy is designing protected areas to increase representation and complementarity of biodiversity features. Uncertainty regarding the scale and magnitude of landscape change complicates reserve planning and exposes decision makers to risk of failing to meet conservation goals. Conservation planning tends to treat risk as an absolute measure, ignoring the context of the management problem and risk preferences of stakeholders. Application to conservation of risk management theory emphasizes diversification of portfolio of...
Abstract (From http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss4/art14/): National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in the United States play an important role in the adaptation of social-ecological systems to climate change, land-use change, and other global-change processes. Coastal refuges are already experiencing threats from sea-level rise and other change processes that are largely beyond their ability to influence, while at the same time facing tighter budgets and reduced staff. We engaged in workshops with NWR managers along the U.S. Atlantic coast to understand the problems they face from global-change processes and began a multidisciplinary collaboration to use decision science to help address them. We are applying a...
Abstract (from USGS Publications Warehouse): This final report summarizes activities, outcomes, and lessons learned from a 3-year project titled “Climate Change Adaptation for Coastal National Wildlife Refuges” with the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) and local partners in the surrounding South Carolina Lowcountry. The Lowcountry is classified as the 10-county area encompassing the coastal plain of South Carolina (this report specifically focuses on Berkeley, Charleston, and Georgetown Counties). The goals of this work, sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (SECASC), were to foster active engagement with stakeholders; to develop a comprehensive definition...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by local processes associated with human development, including drainage of coastal wetlands, hydrologic alterations affecting sediment supply, and land-use change, and by global-scale ecological changes including sea-level rise and other effects associated with climate change. Together, these forces are degrading the capacity of ecological and social systems to respond to disturbance. The goal of this project was to foster active engagement with stakeholders; develop a comprehensive problem definition that expressed local values, knowledge, and perceptions; and encourage building of effective networks and trust across organizations and individuals...
Coastal ecosystems in the Eastern U.S. have been severely altered by processes associated with human development, including drainage of wetlands, changes in hydrology, land clearing, agricultural and forestry activity, and the construction of structures that "harden" the coast. Sea-level rise and the changing frequency of extreme events associated with climate change are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient. As custodians of ecological goods and services valued by society, coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have an especially important role to play in helping socio-ecological systems adapt to global-change processes. To help refuges address this challenge,...
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Salinity regimes in coastal ecosystems are highly dynamic and driven by complex geomorphic and hydrological processes. Estuarine biota are generally adapted to salinity fluctuation, but are vulnerable to salinity extremes. Characterizing coastal salinity regime for ecological studies therefore requires representing extremes of salinity ranges at various time scales relevant to ecology (e.g., daily, monthly, seasonally). This data release provides supporting data for the journal article titled, "Quantifying uncertainty in coastal salinity regime for biological application using quantile regression," by Yurek et al. (2022). A spatially-resolved model was developed that derives quantile distributions of salinity related...
Abstract (from Ecological Modelling): Self-organization is a process of establishing and reinforcing local structures through feedbacks between internal population dynamics and external factors. In reef-building systems, substrate is collectively engineered by individuals that also occupy it and compete for space. Reefs are constrained spatially by the physical environment, and by mortality, which reduces production but exposes substrate for recruits. Reef self-organization therefore depends on efficient balancing of production and occupancy of substrate. To examine this, we develop a three-dimensional individual-based model (IBM) of oyster reef mechanics. Shell substrate is grown by individuals as valves, accumulates...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Table summarizing results from expert elicitation process to project the frequency and magnitude of Florida manatee mortality events caused by red tide (Karenia brevis).
    map background search result map search result map Data from: "Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty" Data for analysis of open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management Data Release: Modeling coastal salinity regime for biological application Data from: Decision science as a framework for combining geomorphological and ecological modeling for the management of coastal systems Data Release: Modeling coastal salinity regime for biological application Data for analysis of open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management Data from: "Evaluating the effect of expert elicitation techniques on population status assessment in the face of large uncertainty"