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A beautiful plant found only on Haleakala may become rarer. A recent study coauthored by UH researcher Paul Krushelnycky shows changing climate patterns allowing fog and rain to reach higher elevations are threatening the plant but he cautions all is not lost. He joined us in our studio to tell us more. Paul is currently Assistant Researcher, at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at the University of Hawaii in Manoa.
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This data set describes the predicted daily climate (temperature and rainfall) for low, mid, and high-elevations on Mona Loa, Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100. Climate predictions are based on 3 alternative climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, A1B, and RCP 8.5) - see Liao et al. 2015 for more details and climate references. The predicted daily risk of susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers are based on the daily climate data, mosquito abundance and other factors. Also see Samuel et al. 2011 The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native Hawaiian birds: a modeling approach. Ecological Applications 21:2960-2973 for description of the epidemiological model used for avian malaria risk predictions.
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Dominant Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands".
Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
A new study published in Climate Change Responses by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers shows how shifting atmospheric circulation patterns that may be caused by climate change are threatening populations of the iconic silversword on Haleakalā. The native plant is found nowhere else in the world. Paul Krushelnycky of the UH Mānoa Department of Plant and Environmental Protection Sciences and his co-authors researched the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation on populations of silverswords, using 80 years of data records. The team found that Haleakalā silversword numbers have declined about 60 percent since 1990 and that this decline coincides with lower rainfall in the area,...
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach". The key goals of this project were 1) to understand how changes in the Earth’s future climate system will affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Hawai`i, 2) to support studies of the ecological impacts of climate change on native Hawaiian plants and animals and 3) to provide information needed by natural resource managers charged with preserving native biodiversity.
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0088948): Reproduction in rare plants may be influenced and limited by a complex combination of factors. External threats such as invasive species and landscape characteristics such as isolation may impinge on both pollination and seed predation dynamics, which in turn can strongly affect reproduction. I assessed how patterns in floral visitation, seed predation, invasive ant presence, and plant isolation influenced one another and ultimately affected viable seed production in Haleakalā silverswords (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum) of Hawai’i. Floral visitation was dominated by endemic Hylaeus bees, and patterns of visitation...
Almost all daily rainfall time series contain gaps in the instrumental record. Various methods can be used to fill in missing data using observations at neighboring sites (predictor stations). In this study, five computationally simple gap-filling approaches—normal ratio (NR), linear regression (LR), inverse distance weighting (ID), quantile mapping (QM), and single best estimator (BE)—are evaluated to 1) determine the optimal method for gap filling daily rainfall in Hawaii, 2) quantify the error associated with filling gaps of various size, and 3) determine the value of gap filling prior to spatial interpolation. Results show that the correlation between a target station and a predictor station is more important...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing Viability of the Haleakalā Silversword to Uncover the Effects of Climate Change on Hawaiˈi’s High-Elevation Ecosystems".
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13005/abstract): Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Avian malaria has played a significant role in causing extinctions, population declines, and limiting the elevational distribution of Hawaiian honeycreepers. Most threatened and endangered honeycreepers only exist in high-elevation forests where the risk of malaria infection is limited. Because Culex mosquito vectors and avian malaria dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature and rainfall, future climate change is predicted to expand malaria infection to high-elevation forests and intensify malaria infection at lower elevations, likely resulting in future extinctions and loss of avian biodiversity in Hawaii. Novel, landscape-level mosquito control strategies are promising, but...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100 Predicted climate and avian malaria risk to Hawaiian honeycreepers on the Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100