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A sea-level rise modeling handbook was developed as a natural resource manager’s guide of the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on our coastal ecosystems. This webinar introduces the layout and content of the handbook including various methods and models for understanding past and current sea-level change and predicting ecosystem impacts of rising sea level under future climate change. Basic illustrations of the components of the Earth’s hydrosphere and effects of plate tectonics, planetary orbits, and glaciation are explained to understand the long-term cycles of historical sea-level rise and fall. Discussion of proper interpretation of contemporary sea-level...
Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, in particular shifting the ranges of species as they move to cooler places. One problem for wildlife as their ranges shift is that their path is often impeded by habitat fragmentation. Because of this, the most common recommended strategy to protect wildlife as climate changes is to connect their habitats, providing them safe passage. There are great challenges to implementing this strategy in the southeastern US, however, because most intervening lands between habitat patches are held in private ownership. In partnership with South Atlantic LCC members, we assessed current and projected connectivity for three species that inhabit bottomland hardwoods throughout...
Abstract (from SpringerLink): Foundation plant species play a critical role in coastal wetlands, often modifying abiotic conditions that are too stressful for most organisms and providing the primary habitat features that support entire ecological communities. Here, we consider the influence of climatic drivers on the distribution of foundation plant species within coastal wetlands of the conterminous USA. Using region-level syntheses, we identified 24 dominant foundation plant species within 12 biogeographic regions, and we categorized species and biogeographic regions into four groups: graminoids, mangroves, succulents, and unvegetated. Literature searches were used to characterize the level of research directed...
Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold-tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru,...
Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal...
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Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. This report inventories and then directly examines and compares a subset of hydrological models implemented in the Southeastern US that were used to estimate streamflow at a number of gaged basins across the region. This effort was designed to evaluate, quantify and compare the magnitude, and...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
This file contains results from the project "Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern U.S.", funded by the Department of Interior's Southeast Climate Science Center. Metrics fitting the categories of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity were calculated for twelve ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and the Caribbean. Metrics include historic temperature and precipitation, projected future climate variables under two emissions scenarios, projected area affected by sea-level rise, proportion of each under protected status, distance from developed areas, variation in elevation, and human modification.
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In partnership with South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative members, we assessed current and projected connectivity for three species that inhabit bottomland hardwoods throughout the southeastern US: black bear (Ursus americanus), Rafinesque’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii), and timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus). For each species, we mapped important habitat connections between core patches of habitat using three different modeling approaches (Connectivity Analysis Toolkit (CAT), Circuitscape, and Linkage Mapper) that incorporated three types of resistance layers (expert opinion, niche modeling, and empirical data for the black bear only). The result was 21 sets of important connections,...
map background search result map search result map Approved Products Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Large-scale and fine-scale model outputs for model comparison workshop Key landscape connections under urban growth Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Key landscape connections under urban growth Large-scale and fine-scale model outputs for model comparison workshop