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Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2745.12571/full): 1.Changing winter climate extremes are expected to result in the poleward migration of mangrove forests at the expense of salt marshes. Although mangroves and marshes are both highly valued ecosystems, the ecological implications of mangrove expansion have not been fully investigated. 2.Here we examined the effects of mangrove expansion on below-ground properties related to peat development and carbon storage. We investigated plant-soil interactions in marshes and across mangrove forest structural gradients in three locations in the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA). We compared our results to those from terrestrial grasslands where the...
Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
Abstract (from esa): For decades, botanists have recognized that rare plants are clustered into ecological “islands”: small and isolated habitat patches produced by landscape features such as sinkholes and bedrock outcrops. Insular ecosystems often provide unusually stressful microhabitats for plant growth (due, for example, to their characteristically thin soils, high temperatures, extreme pH, or limited nutrients) to which rare species are specially adapted. Climate‐driven changes to these stressors may undermine the competitive advantage of stress‐adapted species, allowing them to be displaced by competitors, or may overwhelm their coping strategies altogether. Special features of insular ecosystems – such as...
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The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change vulnerability of 12 key ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean, ranging from Caribbean coastal mangrove to Nashville Basin limestone glade and woodland. Scientists used the existing scientific literature and geospatial analysis to determine each ecosystem’s sensitivity to changes in climate, its exposure level to...
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Coastal wetlands purify water, protect coastal communities from storms, sequester (store) carbon, and provide habitat for fish and wildlife. They are also vulnerable to climate change. In particular, changes in winter climate (warmer temperatures and fewer freeze events) may transform coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as mangrove forests are expected to expand their range and replace salt marshes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. As part of this project, researchers identified important thresholds for ecosystem changes and highlighted coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana,...
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This shapefile contains polygons representing the current range of twelve ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and the Caribbean. These were the focal ecosystems for the research project. The polygons were created by digitizing a representative area that contained each ecosystem's extent, as defined from GAP land cover or NatureServe's National Map land cover data.
UNCERTAINTY IS ALWAYS PRESENT in conservation and other socio-ecological decisions, which can make choices uncomfortable and challenging. All choices have consequences – including the choice to do nothing. This fact sheet discusses the pervasiveness of uncertainty, the importance of understanding varying perceptions of uncertainty, and avenues for progress in the presence of uncertainty and differing risk tolerances.
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In partnership with South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative members, we assessed current and projected connectivity for three species that inhabit bottomland hardwoods throughout the southeastern US: black bear (Ursus americanus), Rafinesque’s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii), timber rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus). For each species, we mapped important habitat connections between core patches of habitat using three different modeling approaches (Connectivity Analysis Toolkit (CAT), Circuitscape, and Linkage Mapper) that incorporated three types of resistance layers (expert opinion, niche modeling, and empirical data for the black bear only). The result was 21 sets of important connections, one...
Conservation practitioners must navigate many challenges to advance effective naturalresource management in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Numerous climatic and ecological changes remain on the horizon, and their eventual consequences are not completely understood. Even so, their influences are expected to impact important resources and the people that depend on them across local, regional, and sometimes global scales. Although forecasts of future conditions are almost always imperfect, decision makers are increasingly expected to communicate and use uncertain information when making policy choices that affect multiple user groups. The degree to which management objectives are met can depend on 1) how critical...
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We routinely encounter uncertainty when we make decisions – from picking a new morning coffee to choosing where to live. Even decisions that are supported by science contain some level of remaining uncertainty. In the context of conservation and wildlife management, the potential for uncertainty to influence decisions is perhaps most obvious when we think about predicting how actions (or non-actions) will have lasting impacts into the future. Our abilities to precisely predict future climatic and ecological conditions and determine the exact consequences of our actions are, and will remain, limited. Conservation practitioners and land and wildlife managers must navigate these challenges to make science-informed...
map background search result map search result map Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments Focal Ecosystems Key landscape connections under climate change Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments Key landscape connections under climate change Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Focal Ecosystems