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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
Abstract (from http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/283/1840/20161574): A substantial amount of global carbon is stored in mature trees. However, no experiments to date test how warming affects mature tree carbon storage. Using a unique, citywide, factorial experiment, we investigated how warming and insect herbivory affected physiological function and carbon sequestration (carbon stored per year) of mature trees. Urban warming increased herbivorous arthropod abundance on trees, but these herbivores had negligible effects on tree carbon sequestration. Instead, urban warming was associated with an estimated 12% loss of carbon sequestration, in part because photosynthesis was reduced at hotter sites. Ecosystem...
The asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM) is a flexible and computationally efficient statistical model that can downscale station-based or gridded daily values of any variable that can be transformed into an approximately symmetric distribution and for which a large-scale predictor exists. This technique was developed to bridge the gap between large-scale outputs from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and the fine-scale output required for local and regional climate impact assessments. ARRM uses piecewise regression to quantify the relationship between observed and modelled quantiles and then downscale future projections. Here, we evaluate the performance of three successive versions...
We assess the ability of Global Climate Models participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) to simulate observed annual precipitation cycles over the Caribbean. Compared to weather station records and gridded observations, we find that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models can be grouped into three categories: (1) models that correctly simulate a bimodal distribution with two rainfall maxima in May–June and September–October, punctuated by a mid-summer drought (MSD) in July–August; (2) models that reproduce the MSD and the second precipitation maxima only; and (3) models that simulate only one precipitation maxima, beginning in early summer. These categories appear related...
Social insects exhibit remarkable variation in their colony breeding structures, both within and among species. Ecological factors are believed to be important in shaping reproductive traits of social insect colonies, yet there is little information linking specific environmental variables with differences in breeding structure. Subterranean termites (Rhinotermitidae) show exceptional variation in colony breeding structure, differing in the number of reproductives and degree of inbreeding; colonies can be simple families headed by a single pair of monogamous reproductives (king and queen) or they can be extended families headed by multiple inbreeding neotenic reproductives (wingless individuals). Using microsatellite...
Plants growing in vegetationally diverse habitats or near taxonomically distinct neighbors often experience less herbivory than plants in more simple habitats. When plants experience more herbivory in these situations it is called associational susceptibility and is most common when herbivores spill from their preferred plant host onto neighboring plants. Cankerworms are common pests of urban trees that have been shown in forests to disperse from preferred to less preferred hosts. I found that two common characteristics of urban habitats, low vegetational diversity and exotic plants, affect cankerworm herbivory of non-host understory plants. In an urban landscape I measured cankerworm herbivory on native dogwood...
An assessment of the capacity of coral reefs to grow fast enough to keep up with projected rises in sea level finds that most reefs will fall behind if nothing is done to restore them.
Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.
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