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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Southwest CASC > FY 2013 Projects > The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California ( Show direct descendants )

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__National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
___Southwest CASC
____FY 2013 Projects
_____The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California
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Originally, we had two primary objectives for this project: (1) To study North Pacific Jet (NPJ) climatology on interannual to decadal time scales by (a) extending the instrumental NPJ period back in time based on Twentieth Century Re-analysis data and (b) by developing a tree-ring based reconstruction of the winter NPJ position. (2). To analyze the influence of NPJ position on Sierra Nevada (SN) fire regimes. For this purpose, we planned to use historical SN fire regime data to establish a pre-settlement NPJ-fire relationship and recent annual area burned data to determine whether this relationship persists into the 21st century. We have reached objective 1a in a study of twentieth century NPJ climatology (Belmecheri...
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Abstract (from Dendrochronologia): In the United States’ (US) Northern Rockies, synoptic pressure systems and atmospheric circulation drive interannual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation. The radial growth of high-elevation trees in this semi-arid region captures this temperature and precipitation variability and provides long time series to contextualize instrumental-era variability in synoptic-scale climate patterns. Such variability in climate patterns can trigger extreme climate events, such as droughts, floods, and forest fires, which have a damaging impact on human and natural systems. We developed 11 tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from multiple species and sites to investigate the seasonal...
From http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2809.html, the Correspondence begins: California is currently experiencing a record-setting drought that started in 2012 and recently culminated in the first ever mandatory state-wide water restriction 1. The snowpack conditions in the Sierra Nevada mountains present an ominous sign of the severity of this drought: the 1 April 2015 snow water equivalent (SWE) was at only 5% of its historical average 2. In the Mediterranean climate of California, with 80% of the precipitation occurring during winter months, Sierra Nevada snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state's water reservoirs and provides 30% of its water supply 3. As a result,...
Abstract (from PNAS): North Pacific jet stream (NPJ) behavior strongly affects cool-season moisture delivery in California and is an important predictor of summer fire conditions. Reconstructions of the NPJ before modern fire suppression began in the early 20th century identify the relationships between NPJ characteristics and precipitation and fire extremes. After fire suppression, the relationship between the NPJ and precipitation extremes is unchanged, but the NPJ–fire extremes relationship breaks down. Simulations with high CO2 forcing show higher temperatures, reduced snowpack, and drier summers by 2070 to 2100 whether overall precipitation is enhanced or reduced, thereby overriding historical dynamic NPJ precursor...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/EI-D-16-0023.1): The latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream (NHJ) modulates the occurrence and frequency of extreme weather events. Precipitation anomalies in particular are associated with NHJ variability; the resulting floods and droughts can have considerable societal and economic impacts. This study develops a new climatology of the 300-hPa NHJ using a bottom-up approach based on seasonally explicit latitudinal NHJ positions. Four seasons with coherent NHJ patterns were identified (January–February, April–May, July–August, and October–November), along with 32 longitudinal sectors where the seasonal NHJ shows strong spatial coherence....