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Abstract (from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0111669): Projected climate change at a regional level is expected to shift vegetation habitat distributions over the next century. For the sub-alpine species whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), warming temperatures may indirectly result in loss of suitable bioclimatic habitat, reducing its distribution within its historic range. This research focuses on understanding the patterns of spatiotemporal variability for future projected P.albicaulis suitable habitat in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) through a bioclimatic envelope approach. Since intermodel variability from General Circulation Models (GCMs) lead to differing predictions...
The North Central Climate Science Center Paleoenvironmental Database serves as an archive of Pleistocene proxy records, metadata and derivative products (e.g., chronologies, vegetation and climate reconstructions), and provides a resource for environmental research, facilitating data viewing, synthesis and joint analysis of multiproxy datasets. As of March 2014, the database consists of 1270 paleoenvironmental records, including proxies of climate (i.e., tree-rings, borehole temperatures, isotopes, diatoms, electrical conductivity, ice cores, loess accumulation), streamflow (i.e., tree rings), fauna (i.e., fossils), vegetation (i.e., pollen, plant macrofossils) and fire (i.e., tree-scars, charcoal).
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This dataset represents the area in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem prioritized for different whitebark pine(Pinus albicaulis) management activities, summarized by climate suitability zones. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical...
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The Prairie Pothole Region spans parts of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Montana, Iowa and south-central Canada and contains millions of wetlands that provide habitat for breeding and migrating birds. Because it is the continent’s most important breeding area for waterfowl, conservation and management largely focuses on protecting habitat for nesting ducks. However, other wetland-dependent birds also rely on this region, and it is important to understand the degree to which habitat conserved for ducks provides habitat for other species, and how the quality of this habitat will be affected by climate change. Project researchers tested whether waterfowl are effective representatives, or surrogates, for other wetland-dependent...
Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to high summer temperature and fire activity in the past. Moreover, the fossil record suggests...
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This dataset represents the area in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem prioritized for different whitebark pine(Pinus albicaulis) management activities, summarized by land classes. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical climate...
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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1950-1999 period, in the annual and seasonal soil moisture (%), runoff (%), precipitation (%) and evapotranspiration (%) in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.
Southwestern Colorado is already experiencing the effects of climate change in the form of larger and more severe wildfires, prolonged severe droughts, tree mortality from insect outbreaks, and earlier snowmelt. Climate scientists expect the region to experience more frequent summer heat waves, longer-lasting and more frequent droughts, and decreased river flow in the future (Lukas et al. 2014). These changes will ultimately impact local communities and challenge natural resource managers in allocating water and range for livestock grazing under unpredictable drought conditions, managing forests in the face of changing fire regimes, and managing threatened species under shifting ecological conditions. Considering...
In addition to the major projects funded by the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), selected through its solicitation process or the directed funds going to the foundational Science Areas, there remains a need within the north central domain to support work that builds capacity among stakeholders that have been otherwise left out of the major projects funded by the NC CSC. During the course of this project, we focused on stakeholder capacity building by providing regional offerings of climate-related courses for resource managers, supporting tribal college students and deploying technology to better understand how climate impacts living things, and supporting strategic scientific study of the climate/energy/environment...
Land managers in the Pacific Northwest have reported a need for updated scientific information on the ecology and management of mixed-conifer forests east of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Of particular concern are the moist mixed-conifer forests, which have become drought-stressed and vulnerable to high-severity fire after decades of human disturbances and climate warming. This synthesis responds to this need. We present a compilation of existing research across multiple natural resource issues, including disturbance regimes, the legacy effects of past management actions, wildlife habitat, watershed health, restoration concepts from a landscape perspective, and social and policy concerns. We provide...
map background search result map search result map Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species? Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture, Runoff, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Between 1950-2099 in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Time Series of the Anomalies in Soil Moisture, Runoff, Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Between 1950-2099 in the Upper Gunnison Basin in Southwest Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Understanding How Climate and Land Use Change Will Impact Wetland-Dependent Birds: Are Waterfowl Effective Surrogates for Other Species?