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These datasets contain time series of anomalies, relative to 1971-2000 period, in the mean, daily minimum and maximum temperatures (F), precipitation (%), growing season lenght (GSL in days), and warm season duration index (WSDI in days) for the Southwest Colorado region for the three future climate scenarios considered in the Social Ecological and Climate Resiliency (SECR) project.
Chapter on Adaptation for the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Adaptation refers to action to prepare for and adjust to new conditions, thereby reducing harm or taking advantage of new opportunities. Adaptation planning is occurring in the public and private sectors and at all levels of government but few measures have been implemented.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Assessment, North Central CASC
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00027.1): The way in which people perceive climate change risk is informed by their social interactions and cultural worldviews comprising fundamental beliefs about society and nature. Therefore, perceptions of climate change risk and vulnerability along with people’s “myths of nature”—that is, how groups of people conceptualize the way nature functions—influence the feasibility and acceptability of climate adaptation planning, policy making, and implementation. This study presents analyses of cultural worldviews that broaden the current treatments of culture and climate change mitigation and adaptation decision making in communities. The authors...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Culture, North Central CASC, Society
Abstract from Ecosphere: The Prairie Pothole Region, situated in the northern Great Plains, provides important stopover habitat for migratory shorebirds. During spring migration in the U.S. Prairie Potholes, 7.3 million shorebirds refuel in the region's myriad small, freshwater wetlands. Shorebirds use mudflats, shorelines, and ephemeral wetlands that are far more abundant in wet years than dry years. Generally, climate change is expected to bring warmer temperatures, seasonality shifts, more extreme events, and changes to precipitation. The impacts to wetland habitats are uncertain. In the Prairie Potholes, earlier spring onset and warmer temperatures may advance drying of wetlands or, alternately, increased spring...
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The TopoWx ('Topography Weather') dataset contains historical 30-arcsec resolution (~800-m) interpolations of daily minimum and maximum topoclimatic air temperature for the conterminous U.S. Using both DEM-based variables and MODIS land skin temperature as predictors of air temperature, interpolation procedures include moving window regression kriging and geographically weighted regression. To avoid artificial climate trends, all input station data are homogenized using the GHCN/USHCN Pairwise Homogenization Algorithm (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/#phas). The interpolation model is open source and information on obtaining model code can be found at http://www.ntsg.umt.edu/project/TopoWx. The...
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0124439): Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation to past climate variability and suggest that white pines, a taxon of special concern in the region, have been surprisingly resilient to...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, North Central CASC
These data were used to estimate models relating climate and land cover to wetland densities and develop projections under climate and land use change. Data for model estimation were derived from historical climate data, estimates of hydrological processes based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, National Wetlands Inventory, and the National Land Cover Database. Wetland densities were based on observations from the Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey. Projected climate conditions were derived from ten Global Climate Models, and projected changes in land use were based on an economic model of the effects of climate on land use transitions. These data support the following publication: Sofaer,...
The NC CSC has collaborated with the USGS AmericaView program to deploy cameras that will record phenology throughout the region. Although, not all cameras were deployed throught AmericaView, they were deployed at the following sites: Ashland Bottoms, Kansas Bangtail Study Area in Bozeman, Montana Central Plains Experimental Range, Colorado Grand River Grasslands, Iowa Grand Teton National Park National Elk Refuge, Wyoming Nine Mile Prairie, University of Nebraska, Nebraska Oakville Prairie, North Dakota Poudre Learning Center, Colorado Sagebrush Steppe, Wyoming Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, South Dakota
Water management planners and researchers throughout the world rely on hydrological models to forecast and simulate streamflow hydrology and hydrological events. These simulations are used to inform water management, municipal planning, and ecosystem conservation decisions, as well as to investigate potential effects of climate and land-use change on hydrology.
Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, Great Plains Technical Input Report is the result of a collaboration among numerous local, state, federal, and nongovernmental agencies to develop a comprehensive, state of the art look at the effects of climate change on the eight states that encompass the Great Plains region.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: North Central CASC
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This dataset represents current management alternatives for maintaining whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. This data was developed for use in a landscape simulation modeling study aimed at evaluating how well alternative management strategies maintain whitebark pine populations under historical climate and future climate conditions. For the study, we developed three spatial management alternatives for whitebark pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem representing no active management, current management, and climate-informed management. These management alternatives were implemented in the simulaton model FireBGCv2 under historical climate and three future climate change scenarios...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1574954115001466): Anticipating the ecological effects of climate change to inform natural resource climate adaptation planning represents one of the primary challenges of contemporary conservation science. Species distribution models have become a widely used tool to generate first-pass estimates of climate change impacts to species probabilities of occurrence. There are a number of technical challenges to constructing species distribution models that can be alleviated by the use of scientific workflow software. These challenges include data integration, visualization of modeled predictor–response relationships, and ensuring that models are reproducible...
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Hydrologic models are used throughout the world to forecast and simulate streamflow, inform water management, municipal planning, and ecosystem conservation, and investigate potential effects of climate and land-use change on hydrology. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group is currently developing the infrastructure for a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive, and consistent hydrologic model development and application. The NHM is expected to provide internally consistent estimates of total water availability, water sources, and streamflow timing, and measures of uncertainty around these estimates, for the entire United States. VisTrails, a scientific workflow and provenance...
map background search result map search result map Developing a VisTrails Platform for Modeling Streamflow Hydrology and Projecting Climate Change Effects on Streamflow TopoWx: Topoclimatic Daily Air Temperature Dataset for the Conterminous United States Spatial Prioritization of WBP Management Actions based on current management Time Series of the Anomalies in Temperature and Precipitation Metrics Between 1950-2099 for Southwestern Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Time Series of the Anomalies in Temperature and Precipitation Metrics Between 1950-2099 for Southwestern Colorado Under Three Future Climate Scenarios Spatial Prioritization of WBP Management Actions based on current management TopoWx: Topoclimatic Daily Air Temperature Dataset for the Conterminous United States Developing a VisTrails Platform for Modeling Streamflow Hydrology and Projecting Climate Change Effects on Streamflow