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Abstract (from PNAS): North Pacific jet stream (NPJ) behavior strongly affects cool-season moisture delivery in California and is an important predictor of summer fire conditions. Reconstructions of the NPJ before modern fire suppression began in the early 20th century identify the relationships between NPJ characteristics and precipitation and fire extremes. After fire suppression, the relationship between the NPJ and precipitation extremes is unchanged, but the NPJ–fire extremes relationship breaks down. Simulations with high CO2 forcing show higher temperatures, reduced snowpack, and drier summers by 2070 to 2100 whether overall precipitation is enhanced or reduced, thereby overriding historical dynamic NPJ precursor...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714002882): With ongoing global change, there is an urgent need to expand existing networks of important conservation areas around the world. In the western United States, vast areas of public land, including those administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), present substantial conservation opportunities. For 11 contiguous western states, we used a novel multiple-criteria analysis to model and map contiguous areas of roadless BLM land that possessed important ecological indicators of high biodiversity, resilience to climate change, and landscape connectivity. Specifically, we leveraged available spatial datasets to implement a systematic...
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This collection contains GSFLOW and R-RHESSys model input and output files. CSC_model_files contains the baseline Cleve Creek model, T-only change model, and T-P change model. Model_results.rar is from R-RHESSYS model of climate projections of drought during the next 30 years (2016-2035) for the Cleve Creek watershed in Nevada. Within the .rar packaging are .dat files that contain outputs including net primary productivity (NPP), leaf area index (LAI), actual evapotranspiration (AET), soil moisture, groundwater level, streamflow, snow pack (as snow water equivalent, SWE). Geographic information: Site is Cleve Creek, a headwaters basin to Spring Valley in Eastern Nevada. Lower left corner of model grid is 701984...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1): Coproduction of knowledge is believed to be an effective way to produce usable climate science knowledge through a process of collaboration between scientists and decision makers. While the general principles of coproduction—establishing long-term relationships between scientists and stakeholders, ensuring two-way communication between both groups, and keeping the focus on the production of usable science—are well understood, the mechanisms for achieving those goals have been discussed less. It is proposed here that a more deliberate approach to building the relationships and communication channels between scientists and stakeholders...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2517-1): Daily precipitation variability as observed from weather stations is heavy tailed at most locations around the world. It is thought that diversity in precipitation-causing weather events is fundamental in producing heavy-tailed distributions, and it arises from theory that at least one of the precipitation types contributing to a heavy-tailed climatological record must also be heavy-tailed. Precipitation is a multi-scale phenomenon with a rich spatial structure and short decorrelation length and timescales; the spatiotemporal scale at which precipitation is observed is thus an important factor when considering its statistics and extremes....
This project aims to better characterize how the changing climate of the Southwest is affecting cool and warm season precipitation in the Colorado River basin, and the corresponding response of streamflow in select individual sub-basins. The principal research objective is to assess whether the level of complexity of downscaling, applied to the official global climate change projection models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), substantially affects resultant future streamflow projections used for operational planning purposes. The current methodological standard used for future streamflow projection by the US Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) applies the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Few evaluations of actual collaborative science or co-production processes have been undertaken that can point to specific outcomes for either resource management or science decisions. Project researchers will assess a sample of collaborative Southwest Climate Science Center (SW CSC) funded research projects in order to evaluate the approaches used by SW CSC investigators to collaborate with agency managers and stakeholders; assess the management outcomes of these collaborative processes; develop a tentative set of metrics to measure the effect of these collaborations on management outcomes and the research process; and distill a set of best practices that improve both management and collaborative research process-related...
This document details our analysis of contemporary usage of available climate information for federal land management decisions. For this analysis, we focus on those decisions where respondents indicated that climate information was relevant to the decision being considered. We then evaluate which of the existing products are used most frequently (and the attributes of the decisions in which they were used). In addition, we consider the motivations for not using climate information despite its suggested relevance.
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In California, increased wildfire activity has been linked to decreasing snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Not only has this translated into a longer fire season, but reduced snowpack has cascading effects that impact streamflow, water supplies, agricultural productivity, and ecosystems. California receives 80% of its precipitation during the winter, so mountain snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state’s water supply. One factor that affects the amount of winter precipitation (and therefore snowpack) in California is the North Pacific Jet (NPJ)—a current of strong, high altitude winds that occur over the northern Pacific Ocean. Winters when the NPJ is located further north than normal are drier than...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Report; Tags: 2013, CA, CA-wide, CASC, Completed, All tags...
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In the Southwestern U.S., rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are resulting in changes such as more frequent and severe wildfires and prolonged drought. Natural resource managers striving to make decisions in the face of these changing conditions can benefit from information on past, present, and future climate. While an array of climate assessments are available, it is unclear how useful or relevant this information is for resource management decision-making in the Southwest. This project sought to identify the types of environmental information that resource managers in the Southwest need to make climate-related management decisions. To meet this goal, researchers first assessed the degree...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063238/pdf): The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical...
Abstract (from http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/saf/jof/2016/00000114/00000002/art00008): Collaborative natural resource management has emerged as a means to increase the transparency of decisionmaking in public lands management and to promote shared learning among stakeholders. We developed a rapid forest assessment (RFA) approach for monitoring the key characteristics of forests that capitalizes on the growing interest for citizen science monitoring and can be implemented at large extents. The methods were designed for use with minimal training, to maximize field efficiency, and to simplify interpretation of the data. We chose our variables based on the common interests and questions of collaborative groups....
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Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...
map background search result map search result map Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Assessing the Use of Climate Information in Resource Management Decisions in the Southwest Linking climate, hydrology and ecological changes at intermediate timescales in Cleve Creek, Eastern Nevada Linking climate, hydrology and ecological changes at intermediate timescales in Cleve Creek, Eastern Nevada The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Evaluating the Impact of Climate Science Produced by the Southwest CSC on Resource Management Agency Decisions Assessing the Use of Climate Information in Resource Management Decisions in the Southwest