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This project integrates fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, CA-Southern, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
This project used species distribution modeling, population genetics, and geospatial analysis of historical vs. modern vertebrate populations to identify climate change refugia and population connectivity across the Sierra Nevada. It is hypothesized that climate change refugia will increase persistence and stability of populations and, as a result, maintain higher genetic diversity. This work helps managers assess the need to include connectivity and refugia in climate change adaptation strategies. Results help Sierra Nevada land managers allocate limited resources, aid future scenario assessment at landscape scales, and develop a performance measure for assessing resilience.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, CA, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Conservation Design, All tags...
We conducted detailed resurveys of a montane mammal, Urocitellus beldingi, to examine the effects of climate change on persistence along the trailing edge of its range. Of 74 California sites where U. beldingi were historically recorded (1902–1966), 42 per cent were extirpated, with no evidence for colonization of previously unoccupied sites. Increases in both precipitation and temperature predicted site extirpations, potentially owing to snowcover loss. Surprisingly, human land-use change buffered climate change impacts, leading to increased persistence and abundance. Excluding human-modified sites, U. beldingi has shown an upslope range retraction of 255 m. Generalized additive models of past distribution were...
An online decision support tool for managers, planners, conservation practitioners and scientists.The models generating these maps are the first to take into account the ability of marshes to accrete, or keep up with, rising sea levels, in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.PRBO has generated a series of scenarios to provide a range of projections to address the uncertainty in future rates of sea-level rise and suspended sediment availability.Our maps cover the entire Estuary allowing for analyses at multiple spatial scales.This tool displays maps created at a high spatial resolution using the best available elevation data. The website will be continually updated as new data becomes availableThe tool is the first to...
An online decision support tool for managers, planners, conservation practitioners and scientists.The models generating these maps are the first to take into account the ability of marshes to accrete, or keep up with, rising sea levels, in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.PRBO has generated a series of scenarios to provide a range of projections to address the uncertainty in future rates of sea-level rise and suspended sediment availability.Our maps cover the entire Estuary allowing for analyses at multiple spatial scales.This tool displays maps created at a high spatial resolution using the best available elevation data. The website will be continually updated as new data becomes availableThe tool is the first to...
List of coastal wetland archetypes with additional information on hydrology and related functions and other issues that may affect management decisions Audience: WRP Partner Agencies and stakeholders, and other resource managers throughout Southern California.
Conservation priority maps based on combined bird species current and projected abundance and distribution, updated with new model with improved inputs.Point Blue Conservation Science is currently assessing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) and salinity changes on San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems. Tidal marshes are naturally resilient to SLR, in that they can build up elevation through the capture of suspended sediment and deposition of organic material (vegetation). Thus, a “bathtub” model approach is not appropriate for assessing impacts to this dynamic habitat. Rather, dynamic accretion potential can be modeled annually based on tidal inundation, sediment availability, and the rate of organic accumulation...
The main goal of this project is to ensure that the 2011-13 climate change update to the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report (Baylands Goals) and other key, ongoing conservation activities in the San Francisco Bay region use the latest information about the current and future status of San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems, particularly in the context of sea-level rise. The main product of the project is the improved Sea Level Rise (SLR) Tool, specifically upgraded to inform the Baylands Goals Report update. The tool will continue to be available online at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. All data layers going into the tool are and will continue to be downloadable from the site.
Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
Understanding the environmental contributors to population structure is of paramount importance for conservation in urbanized environments. We used spatially explicit models to determine genetic population structure under current and future environmental conditions across a highly fragmented, human-dominated environment in Southern California to assess the effects of natural ecological variation and urbanization. We focused on 7 common species with diverse habitat requirements, home-range sizes, and dispersal abilities. We quantified the relative roles of potential barriers, including natural environmental characteristics and an anthropogenic barrier created by a major highway, in shaping genetic variation. The...
Workshop on Climate Smart Land Management (with focus on invasive plants) at Cal-IPC Symposium, October 2013.
The large uncertainty surrounding the future effects of sea-level rise and other aspects of climate change on tidal marsh ecosystems exacerbates the difficulty in planning effective conservation and restoration actions. We addressed these difficulties in the context of large-scale wetland restoration activities underway in the San Francisco Estuary (Suisun, San Pablo and San Francisco Bays). We used a boosted regression tree approach to project the future distribution and abundance of five marsh bird species (through 2110) in response to changes in habitat availability and suitability as a result of projected sea-level rise, salinity, and sediment availability in the Estuary. To bracket the uncertainty, we considered...
Sites were chosen from Yosemite National Park maps. Larger meadows were prioritized and although most the meadows were within a day’s hike from a trailhead, several were tens of kilometers from the nearest road. Previous research (Morelli et al 2012 Proceedings of the Royal Society B) showed that detectability was very high (>95% with only one visit) so most sites were visited only one or two times although always with two experienced observers. Sites were surveyed on foot for at least 30 minutes during morning or evening hours. A site would be considered occupied if only one Belding’s ground squirrel was detected but in reality numerous individuals were detected at all occupied sites.
Webinars for regional stakeholders to present findings of the Vulnerability Analysis and Adaptation Planning and encourage participation in subsequent workshops.
Maps have been generated to detail the current and historical biodiversity (no. of species per HUC 12) and imperilment (no. of species existing/no. of species historically * 100 per HUC12) for the entire state. Data is being combined with data for invertebrates and a larger set of maps will be published in 2015-16.
Maps showing projected future range of 79 invasive plants, based on current (2010) and future (2050) climate. Models used an ensemble of 17 Global Circulation Models from PRISM and were run using (open source) Maxent software. Maps are posted on CalWeedMapper (https://calweedmapper.cal-ipc.org/maps/).
Speaker: Matt Reiter, Avian Wetland Quantitative Ecologist, Point Blue Conservation ScienceHow do changes in habitat management and climate effect shorebird populations at local, regional and hemispheric scales? The Pacific Flyway Shorebird Survey project, let by Matt Reiter of Point Blue Conservation Science, seeks to answer this question.This broad-scale, multi-species research and monitoring program will form the foundation to assess shorebird population response to future land use and climate change both within the California LCC and across the Pacific Coast of the Americas. By improving our understanding of which factors most strongly influence shorebird populations and the availability of their habitat through...
A survey of natural resource specialists and land managers was conducted at the beginning of the Pacific Coastal Fog Project. Survey results showed that the most urgently needed dataset was a fog frequency map to help make better natural resource decisions for ecosystem restoration, conservation, and preparing for future climate conditions. Fog maps like these could show which areas receive more or less (or no) fog. This data would help land managers understand the influence of fog on patterns of vegetation distribution, wildfire severity, and stream temperature.The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has used satellite camera imagery feeds since 1960 to improve real-time weather forecasting. Originally the images...
Data layers of current and projected suitable habitat for five species: big-eared woodrat (Neotoma macrotis), California gnatcatcher, Ceanothus greggii, Ceanothus verrucosus, and Tecate cypress in the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA. Data set includes scenarios with and without projected urban growth over a 50 year period, and with and without projected climate change over a 50 year period. The potential distribution of Tecate cypress was modeled using a MaxEnt species distribution model using recent and future climate data with presence records from the San Diego Natural History Museum. Species distributions were modeled only for the South Coast Ecoregion in California, USA as this is where management...
Raster datasets developed in the project Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands.This data collection is the product of the CA LCC-funded project “Climate Change/Land Use Change Scenarios for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands”.The project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and quantifying two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents developed integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland...