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Six global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) were dynamically downscaled to 25-km grid spacing according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model Version Four (RegCM4), interactively coupled to a 1D lake model to represent the Great Lakes. These GCMs include the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model Version Five (CNRM-CM5), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version Five (MIROC5), the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Coupled Model Version Five-Medium Resolution (IPSL-CM5-MR), the Meteorological Research...
"Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and reproduction. This can potentially result in mismatches with food and habitat resources that negatively impact species and ecosystems. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve understanding of shifts in timing at the ecosystem-scale across the Gulf of Maine as well as by exploring marine species-specific case studies. Through stakeholder engagement and outreach across the Northeast region we formed an interdisciplinary working group...
Abstract: Land use changes from natural ecosystems to industrial agriculture have impacted water quality and wildlife populations in the Mississippi River basin. Government programs providing technical assistance and monetary incentives have not resulted in adequate adoption rates of conservation practices. While there has been a plethora of research examining the factors associated with conservation adoption, significantly less is understood about the relative importance of these factors. Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with agricultural producers in three Midwestern watersheds, we assess the relative importance of environmental and production decision criteria when making decisions to adopt conservation...
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Within large-river ecosystems, floodplains serve a variety of important ecological functions. A recent survey of 80 managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers in the central United States found that the most critical information needed to improve floodplain management centered on metrics for characterizing depth, extent, frequency, duration, and timing of inundation. These metrics can be delivered to managers efficiently through cloud-based interactive maps. To calculate these metrics, we interpolated an existing one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model for the Lower Missouri River, which simulated water surface elevations at cross sections spaced (<1...
White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula exist on the edge of their climate tolerance for cold temperatures and deep snow, especially in the lake effect snow zones of the north half of the peninsula. Each year, deer migrate to conifer swamps to escape the deep snow. Many of these swamps are managed by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) as critical deer wintering complexes (DWC), and there has been an effort to acquire and protect additional acres of DWC as deer habitat. Conifer swamps are also managed for many other values, including timber products, which are difficult or impossible to access during mild winters. Recent warming trends have resulted in a 71% decrease...
This dataset contains carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values, and C:N ratios, from eggshell tissue samples of Arctic terns (Sterna paradisaea), Common terns (S. hirundo), and Roseate terns (S. dougalii) nesting on seven islands located along the coast of Maine in 2016, 2017, and 2018.
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Within large-river ecosystems, floodplains serve a variety of important ecological functions. A recent survey of 80 managers of floodplain conservation lands along the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers in the central United States found that the most critical information needed to improve floodplain management centered on metrics for characterizing depth, extent, frequency, duration, and timing of inundation. These metrics can be delivered to managers efficiently through cloud-based interactive maps. To calculate these metrics, we interpolated an existing one-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model for the Lower Missouri River, which simulated water surface elevations at cross sections spaced (<1...
Abstract (from American Fisheries Society): The timing of life history events in many plants and animals depends on the seasonal fluctuations of specific environmental conditions. Climate change is altering environmental regimes and disrupting natural cycles and patterns across communities. Anadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn are particularly sensitive to shifting environmental conditions and thus are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, for many anadromous fish species the specific environmental mechanisms driving migration and spawning patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the upstream spawning migrations of river herring Alosa...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The timing of biological events in plants and animals, such as migration and reproduction, is shifting due to climate change. Anadromous fishes are particularly susceptible to these shifts, as they are subject to strong seasonal cycles when transitioning between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn. We used linear models to determine the extent of phenological shifts in adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) as they migrated from ocean to freshwater environments during spring to spawn at 12 sites along the northeast U.S. We also evaluated broad-scale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that trigger their movements from offshore to inland habitats including sea surface temperature (SST), North Atlantic Oscillation index,...
Abstract (from Fisheries Oceanography): The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological‐human systems; and (d) potential phenology‐focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common...
Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late twenty-first century across the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM) interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result...
Abstract (from American Meteorological Society): Projected changes in lake-effect snowfall by the mid- and late twenty-first century are explored for the Laurentian Great Lakes basin. Simulations from two state-of-the-art global climate models within phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are dynamically downscaled according to the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The downscaling is performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) with 25-km grid spacing, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model. Both downscaled models produce atmospheric warming and increased cold-season precipitation....
Abstract (from http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0167506): Projected changes in the relative abundance and timing of autumn-winter migration are assessed for seven dabbling duck species across the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways for the mid- and late 21st century. Species-specific observed relationships are established between cumulative weather severity in autumn-winter and duck population rate of change. Dynamically downscaled projections of weather severity are developed using a high-resolution regional climate model, interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model to represent the Great Lakes and associated lake-effect snowfall. Based on the observed relationships and downscaled...
map background search result map search result map Baseline Inundation Metrics for the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers Quantify Depth of Inundation for Floodplains on the Missouri River for a Calculated Return Interval of 5 Years Dynamical Downscaling for the Midwest and Great Lakes Basin Pre-breeding foraging ecology of three tern species nesting in the Gulf of Maine Massachusetts River Herring Daily Counts and Environmental data Massachusetts River Herring Daily Counts and Environmental data Quantify Depth of Inundation for Floodplains on the Missouri River for a Calculated Return Interval of 5 Years Baseline Inundation Metrics for the Upper and Middle Mississippi and Lower Missouri Rivers Pre-breeding foraging ecology of three tern species nesting in the Gulf of Maine Dynamical Downscaling for the Midwest and Great Lakes Basin