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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management decisions. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. Vegetation models were informed by the results of MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). We mapped these future projections and integrated them here to...
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Current (1980-2009) and future (2035-2064) bird abundance estimates from a boosted regression tree (BRT) model for 31 avian species in Oregon and Washington state based on avian point count data and eBird data (www.ebird.org) together with climate covariates, and vegetation covariates driven by MC2, a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). Current climate data was based on PRISM (www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). Future climate data was based on downscaled projections (4km) of the GCMUSED global climate model developed by the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) project. This downscaled data is part of the MACAv1-METDATA dataset (maca.northwestknowledge.net/) for the Representative Concentration Pathway...
Categories: Data; Types: GeoTIFF, Raster; Tags: Birds, Brewer's Sparrow (Spizella breweri), Brown Creeper (Certhia americana), Chipping Sparrow (Spizella passerina), Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
The goal of the Available Science Assessment Project (ASAP) is to synthesize and evaluate the body of scientific knowledge on specific, on-the-ground CAAs to determine the conditions, timeframes, and geographic areas where particular CAAs may be most effective for resource managers. We have derived a methodology that utilizes interviews, a systematic review process, and extensive engagement with natural resource managers and scientists throughout the Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) region. For a test case, we will evaluate the science behind specific fire management actions in national forests in the region.
Abstract (from AGU100): In complex terrain, drifting snow contributes to ecohydrologic landscape heterogeneity and ecological refugia. In this study, we assessed the climate sensitivity of hydrological dynamics in a semiarid mountainous catchment in the snow‐to‐rain transition zone. This catchment includes a distinct snow drift‐subsidized refugium that comprises a small portion (14.5%) of the watershed but accounts for a disproportionate amount (modeled average 56%) of hydrological flux generation. We conducted climate sensitivity experiments using a physically based hydrologic model to assess responses of a suite of hydrologic metrics across the watershed. Experiments with an imposed 3.5 °C warming showed reductions...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192315002142): Physically-based models are a powerful tool to help understand interactions of vegetation, atmospheric dynamics, and hydrology, and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of land cover, management, hydrometeorology, and climate variability on ecosystem processes. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate recent modifications and further refinements to a multi-layer plant canopy model for simulating temperature and water vapor within three diverse forest canopies: a 4.5-m tall aspen thicket, a 15-m tall aspen canopy, and a 60-m tall Douglas fir canopy. Performance of the model was strongly related to source strength and profile stability...
Climate change is projected to cause earlier and less snowmelt, potentially reducing water availability for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and for municipal and agricultural water supplies. However, if forested landscapes can be managed to retain snow longer, some of these environmental and financial impacts may be mitigated. Results from our research team demonstrate that in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), opening dense forest canopies through creating forest gaps will generally lead to more snow accumulation and later melt (i.e., up to 13 weeks later). However, under certain conditions, such as locations on ridges with high wind speeds and sunny south-facing slopes, the snow that accumulated in the forest is...
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This raster was clipped from the raw NLCC raster for this species according to the linkage width cutoff listed in Table 2.2 WHCWG (2012). As with the statewide analysis (see WHCWG 2010), the normalized least-cost corridor algorithms produced wall-to-wall linkage maps, with everygrid cell in the study area having a value that represented its deviation from the nearest least-cost movement route. This necessitated creating maps that displayed only values from zero (the optimum modeled route) to a species-specific linkage width cutoff to identify areas that contribute most to connectivity between each HCA pair. Because of the smaller extent of this analysis and the finer-scale data that were available, we chose cutoff...
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The project aimed to use existing models and data to understand how wildfires (number, size, and location) and land-use change will affect watersheds, and therefore water supply, under current conditions and future climates (through 2050) in the western U.S. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to affect water supply in two major ways: 1) decreased water availability, and 2) increased risk to watersheds via loses from fire. As the western population is projected to grow by 310 million people by 2100, this will potentially increase demand for diminishing supplies if housing growth occurs in rangelands or forested lands. Understanding watershed vulnerabilities due to changing climate,...
Management actions may have a higher probability of being successful if they are informed by available scientific knowledge and findings; a systematic review process provides a mechanism to scientifically assess management questions. By evaluating specific actions on scientific knowledge and findings, we may be able to increase management effectiveness and efficiency. The goal of the Available Science Assessment Project (ASAP) is to synthesize and evaluate the body of scientific knowledge on specific, on-the-ground CAAs to determine the conditions, timeframes, and geographic areas where particular CAAs may be most effective for resource managers. We have derived a methodology that utilizes interviews, a systematic...
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OSU_SnowCourse Summary: Manual snow course observations were collected over WY 2012-2014 from four paired forest-open sites chosen to span a broad elevation range. Study sites were located in the upper McKenzie (McK) River watershed, approximately 100 km east of Corvallis, Oregon, on the western slope of the Cascade Range and in the Middle Fork Willamette (MFW) watershed, located to the south of the McKenzie. The sites were designated based on elevation, with a range of 1110-1480 m. Distributed snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) observations were collected via monthly manual snow courses from 1 November through 1 April and bi-weekly thereafter. Snow courses spanned 500 m of forested terrain and 500 m...
map background search result map search result map Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures Approved DataSets Manual snow course observations, raw met data, raw snow depth observations, locations, and associated metadata for Oregon sites Normalized least cost corridors, Columbia Plateau analysis for two species in the Pacific Northwest Avian Abundance Data for Current (1980-2009) and Future (2035-2064) time periods in Oregon and Washington Manual snow course observations, raw met data, raw snow depth observations, locations, and associated metadata for Oregon sites Normalized least cost corridors, Columbia Plateau analysis for two species in the Pacific Northwest Avian Abundance Data for Current (1980-2009) and Future (2035-2064) time periods in Oregon and Washington Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures