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The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo–global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind...
Strong evidence on climate change underscores the need for actions to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise. Global mean sea level may rise 0.18–0.48 m by mid-century1, 2 and 0.5–1.4 m by the end of the century2. Besides marine inundation, it is largely unrecognized that low-lying coastal areas may also be vulnerable to groundwater inundation, which is localized coastal-plain flooding due to a rise of the groundwater table with sea level. Measurements of the coastal groundwater elevation and tidal influence in urban Honolulu, Hawaii, allow estimates of the mean water table, which was used to assess vulnerability to groundwater inundation from sea-level rise. We find that 0.6 m of potential sea-level rise causes substantial...
Final report for the project titled “Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i”
This final report summarizes the project’s major accomplishments in research, training and product development. We have accomplished our primary goals of this project. With our research we contribute significant new information to the monitoring and assessment of ongoing climatic changes in Hawai‘i. Over the last decades the general trends in the wet season rainfall was negative and given the modeled climate scenarios from CMIP3 and CMIP5, it is very likely these trends are going to continue in the 21st century. In this research project, we improved the spatial information content of our statistical downscaling method through the introduction of the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai‘i station data sets and the use of improved...
Increased water levels, erosion, salinity, and flooding associated with sea-level rise threaten coastal and wetland habitats of endangered waterbirds, sea turtles, monk seals, and migratory shorebirds. As sea-level rises the greatest challenge will be prioritizing management actions in response to impacts. We provide decision makers with two solutions to adaptively manage the impacts of SLR and apply these methods to three coastal wetland environments at Keālia National Wildlife Refuge (south Maui), Kanaha State Wildlife Sanctuary (north Maui), and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge (north O‘ahu). Firstly, due to the low gradient of most coastal plain environments, the rate of SLR impact will rapidly accelerate...
Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE...
Publication titled “​Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections”
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Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
The steep mountain slopes of Haleakalā Volcano (Maui, HI) support some of the most spatially diverse environments on the planet. Microclimates found across vertical gradients on the mountain slopes can change over relatively short differences in slope exposure and elevation and are strongly influenced by a persistent temperature inversion and northeast trade winds that are characteristic of this region. Eleven climate stations, which comprise the HaleNet climate network, have been monitoring climatic conditions along a 2030-m leeward (960 to 2990 m) and a 810-m windward (1650 to 2460 m) elevational transect, beginning as early as June of 1988. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, net radiation, relative humidity,...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Journal, Publication, completed
Future projections of temperature change scenarios Downscaling of Temperature Changes for the Hawaiian Islands using CMIP5 Model Scenarios (delta-t)The goal of this downscaling project was to develop an ensemble of future temperature change maps for the main Hawaiian Islands. At the time of this study, we did not have a sufficient number of station-based temperature data to achieve a good representation of the spatial structure of observed temperature variability and trends. Thus it was difficult apply traditional statistical downscaling methods for the purpose of filling in detailed spatial information for future temperature change scenarios. Instead of using the observation-based statistical downscaling this...
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
Global sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to accelerate over the next century, with research indicating that global mean sea level may rise 18–48 cm by 2050, and 50–140 cm by 2100. Decision-makers, faced with the problem of adapting to SLR, utilize elevation data to identify assets that are vulnerable to inundation. This paper reviews techniques and challenges stemming from the use of Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models (DEMs) in support of SLR decision-making. A significant shortcoming in the methodology is the lack of comprehensive standards for estimating LiDAR error, which causes inconsistent and sometimes misleading calculations of uncertainty. Workers typically aim to reduce uncertainty...
Corrections to the article “Statistical downscaling of rainfall changes in Hawai‘i based on the CMIP5 global model projections” published (online) in JGR-Atmospheres 12 JAN 2015
The highest mountain peaks on Hawaii Island are snow covered for part of almost every year. This snow has aesthetic and recreational value as well as cultural significance for residents and visitors. Thus far there have been almost no systematic observations of snowfall, snow cover, or snow depth in Hawaii. Here we use satellite observations to construct a daily index of Hawaii Island snow cover starting from 2000. The seasonal mean of our index displays large interannual variations that are correlated with the seasonal mean freezing level and frequency of trade wind inversions as determined from nearby balloon soundings. Our snow cover index provides a diagnostic for monitoring climate variability and trends within...
Final report for High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands
Estimates of clear sky global solar irradiance using the parametric model SPCTRAL2 were tested against clear sky radiation observations at four sites in Hawai‘i using daily, mean monthly, and 1 year mean model parameter settings. Atmospheric parameters in SPCTRAL2 and similar models are usually set at site-specific values and are not varied to represent the effects of fluctuating humidity, aerosol amount and type, or ozone concentration, because time-dependent atmospheric parameter estimates are not available at most sites of interest. In this study, we sought to determine the added value of using time dependent as opposed to fixed model input parameter settings. At the AERONET site, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO)...
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HaleNet, the climate network on Haleakalā, Maui, is unique in Hawai‘i for its coverage of highly diverse environments, range different climate variables monitored, high temporal resolution, and longterm record. As the record length has grown and climate change has begun to affect Hawai‘i, the value of maintaining and improving this vital network has increased. Support is needed to continue operation and maintenance, replace aging sensors, data loggers, communication equipment, and support structures, and conduct data management and analysis tasks. The overarching goal of this project is to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the HaleNet system, including field operations, equipment maintenance and replacement,...
map background search result map search result map Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems