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The Wind River Indian Reservation in west-central Wyoming is home to the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes, who reside near and depend on water from the streams that feed into the Wind River. In recent years, however, the region has experienced frequent severe droughts, which have impacted tribal livelihoods and cultural activities. Scientists with the North Central Climate Science Center at Colorado State University, the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and several other university and agency partners are working closely with tribal water managers to assess how drought affects the reservation, integrating social, ecological, and hydro-climatological sciences...
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Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife,...
The HPRCC has an established partnership with the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and has enjoyed collaborating on regional projects since its inception. Housed at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, the NC CSC is one of eight such centers that were established in 2010 within the U.S. Department of the Interior. The mission of the Climate Science Centers is to help meet the changing needs of land and resource managers across the U.S. (For more information on the Climate Science Centers, please visit: https://www.doi.gov/csc/about.) The NC CSC collaborates with a consortium of nine institutions that provide expertise in climate science and sectors impacted by climate. The University of Nebraska-Lincoln,...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1590/full): Ecohydrological responses to climate change will exhibit spatial variability and understanding the spatial pattern of ecological impacts is critical from a land management perspective. To quantify climate change impacts on spatial patterns of ecohydrology across shrub steppe ecosystems in North America, we asked the following question: How will climate change impacts on ecohydrology differ in magnitude and variability across climatic gradients, among three big sagebrush ecosystems (SB-Shrubland, SB-Steppe, SB-Montane), and among Sage-grouse Management Zones? We explored these potential changes for mid-century for RCP8.5 using a process-based...
Abstract: (From: Wiley Online Library) Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield‐weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, i.e., alfalfa, wheat, soybeans and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model...
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The conversion of grassland to cropland in the Dakotas could imperil wildlife such as nesting waterfowl and contribute to the degradation of water quality in the Mississippi River watershed. However, high crop prices in recent years have contributed to a high rate of grassland to cropland conversion on private lands. In addition to these economic factors, changes in climate could exacerbate the challenge of protecting grasslands, as conditions may become more amenable to row crop production. The goal of this project was to work with grassland conservation managers to better target the use of funds allocated toward incentivizing grassland preservation in the Dakotas. Researchers identified the vulnerability of...
We worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises. In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter...
This 2-pager describes the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), which is a drought index that can serve as an indicator of both rapidly evolving “flash” droughts (developing over a few weeks) and sustained droughts (developing over months but lasting up to years).
UNL scientists are part of a coalition helping two American Indian tribes prepare for drought and other climate fluctuations. The tribes — the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho, both located on the Wind River Indian Reservation in western Wyoming — have worked with climate and social scientists in the past year to prepare regular climate and drought summaries for use in making water and resource decisions. A second phase, launched this summer, includes UNL's Cody Knutson and will generate a vulnerability assessment designed to help the tribes reduce the likelihood of future drought-related impacts. Read More: http://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/unltoday/article/researchers-help-tribes-enhance-drought-and-climate-resilience/
This project conducts an interdisciplinary, technical assessment of key social-ecological vulnerabilities, risks, and response capacities of the Wind River Indian Reservation (WRIR) to inform development of decision tools to support drought preparedness. It also provides opportunities for 1) development of tribal technical capacity for drought preparedness, and 2) educational programming guided by tribal needs, Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK), and indigenous observations of drought for tribal members, with a longer-term goal of transferring lessons learned to other tribes and non-tribal entities. This project has foundational partnerships between the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho tribes of the WRIR,...
We develop an analytical framework to examine an agency's optimal grassland easement acquisition while accounting for landowners’ optimal decisions under uncertainty in both conversion and conservation returns. We derive the value of “wait and see” (i.e., neither convert nor ease grassland) for landowners and find that grassland-to-cropland conversion probability and easement value vary in opposing directions when “wait and see” is preferred, indicating that a larger conversion probability does not necessarily imply a higher easement value. Our analysis shows that when conservation funds can be flexibly allocated across periods then the agency's optimal acquisition can be readily achieved by sorting land tracts...
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map background search result map search result map Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Potential climate change impacts on fisher connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies Climate-Driven Acreage Changes by 2031-’60 Relative 1981-2005 Showing Major Crops Reported in Arora et al Ag Econ Submission The Wind River Indian Reservation’s Vulnerability to the Impacts of Drought and the Development of Decision Tools to Support Drought Preparedness Climate-Driven Acreage Changes by 2031-’60 Relative 1981-2005 Showing Major Crops Reported in Arora et al Ag Econ Submission Informing the Identification of Economically Effective Targets for Grassland Conservation in the Dakotas Potential climate change impacts on fisher connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies