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Abstract (from AGU Pubs): Land and water surfaces play a critical role in hydroclimate by supplying moisture to the atmosphere, yet the ability of climate models to capture their feedbacks with the atmosphere relative to large‐scale transport is uncertain. To assess these land‐lake‐atmosphere feedbacks, we compare the controls on atmospheric moisture simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM) with observations and reanalysis products for the Great Lakes region. Three 23 year simulations, driven by one reanalysis product and two general circulation models, are performed. RegCM simulates wetter winters and drier summers than observed by up to 31 and 21%, respectively. Moisture advection exhibits similar biases,...
Global climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. But the effects of change on lakes into the future are difficult to project due to the complexities of lake-atmosphere coupling and the physical processes of stratification. Recent work projecting change in individual or theoretical lakes has suggested that these changes will significantly impact the ecology of lakes, but the generalizability of these studies to the diverse population of lakes is unclear. To better understand the diversity of responses and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, the missing information must be filled in using the best available modelling techniques. We modelled water temperature profiles for 9,XXX...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Climate change is affecting the benefits society derives from forests. One such forest ecosystem service is maple syrup, which is primarily derived from Acer saccharum(sugar maple), currently an abundant and widespread tree species in eastern North America. Two climate sensitive components of sap affect syrup production: sugar content and sap flow. The sugar in maple sap derives from carbohydrate stores influenced by prior year growing season conditions. Sap flow is tied to freeze/thaw cycles during early spring. Predicting climate effects on syrup production thus requires integrating observations across scales and biological processes. We observed sap at 6 sugar maple stands spanning...
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Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance...
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. These efforts have often not considered the ability of organisms to adapt to the changing environment. Adding adaptability to models of population persistence should improve accuracy of forecasts. We approach this issue 1) by developing new models of Brook Trout response to changing stream temperatures and flows and 2) by developing a genetic tool for Brook Trout that will allow researchers to understand evolutionary adaption in the wild. Our modelling efforts showed that Brook Trout grow fastest...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Maple sugaring mainly uses sugar and red maples (Acer saccharum and Acer rubrum) by tapping them for sap in the leafless-state across large portions of their ranges. How much sap exudes from a tap hole and how sweet this sap is, can vary substantially. Year-to-year variation in sap yield and sugar content can be primarily traced to differences in meteorological conditions that drive sap runs. Yet, how much of the total variation in sap yield and sugar content is linked to the year, site, species, tree, or tap has not been investigated systematically. Here, we reviewed the literature and also compiled a dataset of sap yield and sugar content from gravity taps on 324 red and sugar maples....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work can be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream...
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Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance...
Abstract: This research investigates how changes to floodplains in the Connecticut River Basin impact flood events. Climate impacted flows and increased development within the floodplain could lead to worsening flood events and less habitat availability for threatened species. Potential future conditions are evaluated through a wide range of scenarios to assess the range of possible impacts using a HEC-RAS 2D model. Three different flood events, 1-yr, 10-yr, and 100-yr, are evaluated for each scenario. Five metrics, Discharge, Depth, Time of Arrival, Flooding Duration, and Number of Buildings Flooded, are tracked for each scenario. These metrics are compared to select the ideal course of action given multiple potential...
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This research investigates how changes to floodplains in the Connecticut River Basin impact flood events. Potential future conditions and impacts are evaluated using a HEC-RAS 2D model to apply a range of land use scenarios differing in area of field and floodplain forest along the river. For each land use scenario, the three evaluated flood events have return intervals of 1-yr, 10-yr, and 100-yr. The metrics presented in this dataset are the resulting streamflow and stage along the Maidstone Bends floodplains of the Connecticut River, for each flood event in each land use scenario.
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A final summary figure summarizing the results of a study that compares two different downscaling techniques in terms of how they project future change in various aspects of the maple syrup tapping season. Spatially, the larger project uses raster data covering the full range of sugar maple across the northeastern US, but the summary figure represents point data (as an example) at a sugarbush farm in central Wisconsin. The results show that dynamically downscaled models fail to adequately forecast absolute values of future conditions but do capture potential changes in year-to-year variability — a metric of particular concern to producers as it challenges planning. Statistically downscaled models, while they do...
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Downscaling is the process of making a coarse-scale global climate model into a finer resolution in order to capture some of the localized detail that the coarse global models cannot resolve. There are two general approaches of downscaling: dynamical and statistical. Within those, many dynamical models have been developed by different institutions, and there are a number of statistical algorithms that have been developed over the years. Many past studies have evaluated the performance of these two broad approaches of downscaling with respect to climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation), but few have translated these evaluations to ecological metrics that managers use to make decisions in planning for...
map background search result map search result map An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change CM2.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Model configuration: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup Production Restoring Floodplains in the Connecticut River Basin: A Flood Management Strategy Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season GENMOM model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change CM2.0 model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Model configuration: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes An Assessment of Midwestern Lake and Stream Temperatures under Climate Change Evaluation of Downscaled Climate Modeling Techniques for the Northeast U.S.: A Case Study of Maple Syrup Production Data supporting the study of Impacts of Downscaled Climate Model Selection on Projections of Maple Syrup Tapping Season Restoring Floodplains in the Connecticut River Basin: A Flood Management Strategy