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Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as climate changes throughout the region. Our research addresses the impact of climate on the quantity and quality of maple sap used to make maple syrup. Sap was sampled at 6 sites across the native range of sugar maple over 2 years as part of the ACERnet collaboration. At each site we sampled 15-25 mature sugar maple trees,...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/lno.10557/abstract): Responses in lake temperatures to climate warming have primarily been characterized using seasonal metrics of surface-water temperatures such as summertime or stratified period average temperatures. However, climate warming may not affect water temperatures equally across seasons or depths. We analyzed a long-term dataset (1981–2015) of biweekly water temperature data in six temperate lakes in Wisconsin, U.S.A. to understand (1) variability in monthly rates of surface- and deep-water warming, (2) how those rates compared to summertime average trends, and (3) if monthly heterogeneity in water temperature trends can be predicted by heterogeneity...
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
The red-backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus) is considered an indicator of forest health. The range of the species covers much of the eastern and central US, and is often locally abundant where it occurs, primarily in deciduous forest. While there are expectations that changes in climate will result in changes in forest ecosystems, the ability of a forest indicator such as the red-backed salamander to adapt to those changes, has not been assessed. We found that the red-backed salamander may have little adaptive capacity, but that changes in climate conditions may be buffered by salamander behavior, including its typical response to retreat underground during times of high temperature or during short-term drought....
Abstract (from Geoscientific Model Development): Biosphere–atmosphere interactions play a critical role in governing atmospheric composition, mediating the concentrations of key species such as ozone and aerosol, thereby influencing air quality and climate. The exchange of reactive trace gases and their oxidation products (both gas and particle phase) is of particular importance in this process. The FORCAsT (FORest Canopy Atmosphere Transfer) 1-D model is developed to study the emission, deposition, chemistry and transport of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and their oxidation products in the atmosphere within and above the forest canopy. We include an equilibrium partitioning scheme, making FORCAsT one of the...
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Fish and Wildlife agencies across the United States are currently revising their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs). These documents are important planning documents over 10 year timescales. SWAP Coordinators have been challenged to incorporate climate change impacts and species responses as part of their strategic approaches to managing vulnerable fish and wildlife resources. The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center is assisting Northeast and Midwestern States meet this charge by developing a regional synthesis document that provides: 1) Regional and state-specific climate change projections for approximately twenty climate variables (e.g., air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture,...
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Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. These efforts have generally not considered the ability of organisms to adjust their phenotype to the changing environment. Organisms can do this by one of two ways. First, they can adjust their phenotype via non-evolutionary pathways. Second, they can undergo adaptive evolutionary change. We used two interconnected approaches to evaluate thermal adaptation capacity in a cold-water fish species. 1) Using tagging data, we estimated thermal performance curves for wild fish. The curves indicate...
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While climate change is rapidly warming lakes and reservoirs, warming rates can be highly variable among systems because lake characteristics can modulate atmospheric forcing. While it is known that water clarity changes can alter lake water temperatures, it is unknown if frequently observed water clarity trends are sufficient to meaningfully impact the thermal trajectories of diverse lake populations. Using process-based modeling and empirical observations, this study demonstrates that water clarity changes of about 1% per year amplifies or suppresses warming at rates comparable to climate-induced warming. These results demonstrate that trends in water clarity, which are occurring in many lakes, may be as important...
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Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance...
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This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. The project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, the team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened...
The “Reconnecting Floodplains and Restoring Green Space as a Management Strategy to Minimize Risk and Increase Resilience in the Context of Climate and Landscape Change” project explores green infrastructure opportunities to manage flows, connections, and watersheds in order to improve both flood protection and ecosystem services. This project’s research specifically investigates how restoring floodplains would impact human welfare and environmental conservation. Its research objectives are addressed in two parts: 1) developing a hydraulic model to illustrate how changes in floodplain management may impact flooding along the Connecticut River, and 2) developing a geo-spatial model that demonstrates the distribution...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Foliar emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC)—important precursors of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosols—vary widely by vegetation type. Modeling studies to date typically represent the canopy as a single dominant tree type or a blend of tree types, yet many forests are diverse with trees of varying height. To assess the sensitivity of biogenic emissions to tree height variation, we compare two 1-D canopy model simulations in which BVOC emission potentials are homogeneous or heterogeneous with canopy depth. The heterogeneous canopy emulates the mid-successional forest at the University of Michigan Biological Station (UMBS). In this case, high-isoprene-emitting...
map background search result map search result map Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments Climate warming of Wisconsin lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity Spatial data: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Temperature data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Sap Quality at Study Sites in the Northeast Integrating Climate Change into the State Wildlife Action Plans Spatial data: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Climate warming of Wisconsin lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity Temperature data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Sap Quality at Study Sites in the Northeast Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Integrating Climate Change into the State Wildlife Action Plans