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All peoples have a right to make meaningful plans for their future. For many Tribes in the northeast region of the United States, trends in the environment such as shifting lake levels, patterns of precipitation and other seasonal cycles pose potential problems. This includes financial burdens on Tribal governments and stresses on Tribal cultural practices such as harvesting medicinal plants and food staples such as wild rice. Consistent with the U.S. federal trust responsibility to Tribes, the Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) has key scientific resources for supporting Tribal adaptation planning in light of noted shifts in environmental trends. The primary activity of this project was for the College...
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Forests play a role in air quality by supplying the atmosphere with volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors to ozone and aerosols. Different tree types emit different VOCs, each with different capacity to form ozone and aerosols. Therefore, shifts in forest composition may impact ozone and aerosol yields. Climate change is one of the expected drivers of forest change. In particular, the current range boundaries of a variety of species are expected to shift northward. The impacts of these climate-induced shifts in forest composition on air quality, particularly VOC emissions and subsequent ozone and aerosol formation, is little understood. This project aimed to explore the relative contribution of shifts in...
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Imagery acquired with unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and coupled with structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry can produce high-resolution topographic and visual reflectance datasets that rival or exceed lidar and orthoimagery. These new techniques are particularly useful for data collection of coastal systems, which requires high temporal and spatial resolution datasets. The U.S. Geological Survey worked in collaboration with members of the Marine Biological Laboratory and Woods Hole Analytics at Black Beach, in Falmouth, Massachusetts to explore scientific research demands on UAS technology for topographic and habitat mapping applications. This project explored the application of consumer-grade UAS platforms...
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
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Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance...
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Long-term historical (derived from GHCN) and future simulated (derived from BCCA) time series analyses for several meteorological variables are provided to several clients within the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) footprint as background of the state of changes in their local climate. Variables include average annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation, extreme temperature and precipitation, wind, and snow depth. Precipitation includes both rain and snow.
Abstract (from NRC Research Press): Lakes respond heterogeneously to climate, with implications for fisheries management. We analyzed walleye (Sander vitreus) recruitment to age-0 in 359 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, to (i) quantify the relationship between annual water temperature degree days (DD) and walleye recruitment success and (ii) identify the influence of lake characteristics — area, conductivity, largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) catch rates, and mean DD — on this relationship. The relationship between walleye recruitment and annual DD varied among lakes and was not distinguishable from zero overall (posterior mean = −0.11, 90% CI = −0.34, 0.15). DD effects on recruitment were negative in 198 lakes (55%)...
Water temperatures are warming in lakes and streams, resulting in the loss of many native fish. Given clear passage, coldwater stream fishes can take refuge upstream when larger streams become too warm. Likewise, many Midwestern lakes “thermally stratify” resulting in warmer waters on top of deeper, cooler waters. Many of these lakes are connected to threatened streams. To date, assessments of the effects of climate change on fish have mostly ignored lakes, and focused instead on streams. Because surface waters represent a network of habitats, an integrated assessment of stream and lake temperatures under climate change is necessary for decision-making. This work will be used to inform the preservation of lake/stream...
Abstract (from http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601635): Global warming has increased the frequency of extreme climate events, yet responses of biological and human communities are poorly understood, particularly for aquatic ecosystems and fisheries. Retrospective analysis of known outcomes may provide insights into the nature of adaptations and trajectory of subsequent conditions. We consider the 1815 eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora and its impact on Gulf of Maine (GoM) coastal and riparian fisheries in 1816. Applying complex adaptive systems theory with historical methods, we analyzed fish export data and contemporary climate records to disclose human and piscine responses to Tambora’s extreme...
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Climate change has been shown to influence lake temperatures globally. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers tools to manage individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. From simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We included all available supporting metadata including satellite and in-situ observations of water clarity, maximum...
Indigenous peoples and Tribal communities have lived in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence region for millenia. Throughout this time, they have lived through great uncertainty through colonialism and assimilation periods. Yet, the effort to make meaningful plans for their communities is now threatened by the uncertainty of changing trends in the environment, such as shifting lake levels and patterns of precipitation. These changes create potential financial burdens on Tribal governments and stresses on Tribal cultural practices such hunting, fishing, and harvesting of subsistence and medicinal plants. Our project focused on developing climate scenario planning activities led by the Tribes and Tribal members we worked...
Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the northeast and Midwest. Because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as climate changes throughout the region. At the same time the demand for this natural sweetener and the production of maple syrup are increasing rapidly. Our research addressed the impact of climate on the quality of maple sap used to make maple syrup. We examined yields coupled with the sugar and biochemical composition...
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Beaches and marshes provide critical habitat for many species of concern, including the piping plover, a shorebird which is endangered in parts of its range and threatened in others. These coastal environments also support tourism and recreation, and provide important services such as protecting infrastructure from wave inundation. Extreme storms and sea-level rise can alter these habitats, with implications for the species and communities that rely on them. This project seeks to test the utility of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) for mapping and monitoring changes in coastal ecosystems. UAS provide a low-cost, low-risk means of acquiring high-resolution data when compared to on-the-ground fieldwork or traditional...
map background search result map search result map Supporting Cooperation Between Tribes and Climate Scientists in the Northeast Region Mapping Coastal Change Using Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Pilot Study NHDWaterbody_100m_buffers NLDAS model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Data release: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Spatial data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Sample time series analysis for point locations through the Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) project, Derived from GHCN and BCCA data Sample time series analysis for point locations through the Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) project, Derived from GHCN and BCCA data Mapping Coastal Change Using Unmanned Aerial Systems: A Pilot Study NLDAS model: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change Data release: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes Spatial data: A large-scale database of modeled contemporary and future water temperature data for 10,774 Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin Lakes NHDWaterbody_100m_buffers Air Quality Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes on Forest Composition Supporting Cooperation Between Tribes and Climate Scientists in the Northeast Region