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This database contains the daily historical fire weather indices averaged over 21 Alaska Predictive Service Areas (PSAs) at elevations at or below 600m for 1979-2017. All indices were computed using meteorological data from the 20km dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis (http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset /historical-and-projected-dynamically-downscaled-climate-data-for-the-state-of- alaska-and-surrou) The fire weather indices here are: -Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) for 1, 15, 52, and 90-day -Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for 1, 15, 52, and 90-day -Reference Evapotranspiration (et0) used to compute EDDI -Precipitation minus et0 used to compute SPEI -Vapor Pressure Deficit...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and traditional, subsistence hunting and fishing lifestyles. Understanding how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and a dozen other entities...
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In Alaska, increased wildfire activity has been linked to warming temperatures. Summers with extreme wildfire activity threaten life and property, clog the air with smoke, and challenge the state’s wildland firefighters. While the largest fires are often started by lightning and burn in remote areas, these fires require significant resources to fight when they threaten life and property. Increased wildfire activity is projected to continue in Alaska, as climate conditions change. Therefore, understanding how to best calculate fire risk based on short and long-term weather conditions is needed to improve fire season forecasts. Currently, Alaska’s fire managers rely on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to monitor...
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Understanding how snow will change over the coming century is vital in understanding environmental changes across Alaska. Changes in snow are also economically important to many sectors, from recreation to commercial fishing. An earlier set of rain-snow partitioning and snowfall equivalent projections based on downscaled CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections have been used extensively. In this project, we developed updated projections for the fraction of precipitation days that are snowy (vs. rainy) and the amount of precipitation that likely falls as snow to be consistent with the newest downscaled temperature and precipitation released by SNAP. The outputs are decadal monthly averages. The updated snow...
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This dataset contains historical and projected dynamically downscaled climate data for the State of Alaska and surrounding regions at 20km spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. Select variables are also summarized into daily resolutions. This data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Version 3.5). We downscaled both ERA-Interim historical reanalysis data (1979 - Oct 2015) and both historical and projected runs from 2 GCM’s from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5): GFDL-CM3 and NCAR-CCSM4 (historical run: 1970-2005 and RCP 8.5: 2006-2100). This dataset was updated in August, 2023 to retain useful fields of latitude and longitude geolocation grids from...
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These files include downscaled projections of decadal average monthly snowfall equivalent ("SWE", in millimeters) for each month of the decades from 2010-2019 to 2090-2099 at 771 x 771 m spatial resolution. Each file represents a decadal average monthly mean. Output is available for the NCAR-CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3 models and three emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Snow-fall equivalent estimates were produced by multiplying snow-day fraction ("fs") by decadal average monthly precipitation ("Pr"). (fs*Pr)/100 Snow-day fraction data used can be found here: http://ckan.snap.uaf.edu/dataset/projected-decadal-averages-of-monthly-snow-day-fraction-771m-cmip5-ar5 Precipitation...
Abstract (from Water): Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow...
Alaska is experiencing effects of global climate change that are due, in large part, to the positive feedback mechanisms associated with polar amplification. The major risk factors include loss of sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost, increased wildfires, and ocean acidification. Reanalyses, integral to understanding mechanisms of Alaska’s past climate and to helping to calibrate modeling efforts, are based on the output of weather forecast models that assimilate observations. This study evaluates temperature and precipitation from five reanalyses at monthly and daily time scales for the period 1979–2009. Monthly data are evaluated spatially at grid points and for six climate zones in Alaska. In addition, daily...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and hunting and fishing livelihoods. Identifying how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and others in 2016 to hold a series of workshops in...
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Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) provide essential habitat for wildlife of management interest, including diverse communities of shorebirds and waterfowl. The low-lying ACP region is located on the North Slope of Alaska, and is rich with shallow lakes and ponds that form as a result of permafrost freeze-thaw cycles. This region is a primary nesting site for many migratory birds. The YKD, meanwhile, is a vast wetland/tundra landscape on Alaska’s remote western coast. One of the largest deltas in the world, the YKD supports millions of nesting and migrating waterfowl and shorebirds, and is the largest goose nesting habitat in North America. As climate conditions change and permafrost...
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These files include downscaled projections of decadal average monthly snow-day fraction ("fs", units = percent probability from 1 – 100) for each month of the decades from 2010-2019 to 2090-2099 at 771 x 771 m spatial resolution. Each file represents a decadal average monthly mean. Output is available for the CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3 models and three emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). These snow-day fraction estimates were produced by applying equations relating decadal average monthly temperature to snow-day fraction to downscaled decadal average monthly temperature. Separate equations were used to model the relationship between decadal monthly average temperature...
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) has been downscaled using a regional model covering Alaska at 20-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution for 1979–2013. Stakeholders can utilize these enhanced-resolution data to investigate climate- and weather-related phenomena in Alaska. Temperature and precipitation are analyzed and compared among ERA-Interim, WRF Model downscaling, and in situ observations. Relative to ERA-Interim, the downscaling is shown to improve the spatial representation of temperature and precipitation around Alaska’s complex terrain. Improvements include increased winter and decreased summer higher-elevation downscaled seasonal average temperatures....
map background search result map search result map Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Understanding Landscape Change in the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain and Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Downscaled Climate Data for Alaska Understanding Landscape Change in the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain and Yukon Kuskokwim Delta Assessing Seasonal Wildfire Forecasting Methods in Alaska Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Downscaled Climate Data for Alaska Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Region Promoting Coastal Resilience and Adaptation in Alaska: Community Outreach and Engagement