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This project integrates projections from two climate downscaling approaches into a series of future climate scenarios that will be used to assess the vulnerability of resources and ecosystem services within the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands LCC. It consists of 4 phases: 1) downscaled climate model integration and synthesis, and engagement with key researchers; 2) the development of a set of likely future climate scenarios based on common model projections; 3) an evaluation and synthesis of vulnerabilities of key resources and ecosystem services; and 4) presentation of results and engagement of regional managers and stakeholders in a dialogue about further research and implications. This project will occur as collaboration...
Partners developed a simulation model to better show how various projections associated with increased marine traffic in the Bering Sea might look in the coming decades. These simulations are able to help communities and managers better understand future patterns of traffic in the Bering Sea region as a whole, and look more specifically at possible changes in key areas of concern like the Bering Strait.Following vessel activity analysis and considering vessel type, transit routes, route timing, routing speed, and ports of call, we developed a novel agent-based, spatially-explicit, baseline model of current marine vessel traffic patterns. We then applied projections about changes in traffic volume from a report by...
Continuous, long-term monitoring of the food habits of marine birds is a key component in detecting responses to anticipated climate change of both the birds and the prey populations on which they depend. The Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge (AMNWR) has been collecting seabird diet samples from the Pribilof and Aleutian Islands for more than 30 years. With support from previous LCC funding, AMNWR has developed protocols for zooplankton sample analysis, created a reference collection of seabird prey items, and helped develop and populate a publicly available data management system. Still needed are process and capacity for whole fish samples and digested fish samples (hard parts such as otoliths). This project...
The Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ABSI LCC) is a self-directed partnership whose mission is to promote coordination, dissemination, and development of applied science to inform conservation of natural and cultural resources in the face of climate change and other landscape scale stressors. The ABSI region is one of the most remote and inaccessible areas within the national LCC network. As a result, access is both limited and expensive. The use of “Platforms of Opportunity” is one collaborative approach that allows researchers to collect valuable data that otherwise would not be possible. Unfortunately, the is no single resource available that contains information about planned...
In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather, have resulted in risks to human lives, infrastructure damage, threats to valuable natural resources, and disruption of hunting, fishing, and livelihoods.Leaders from the Aleutians to the Chukchi Sea came together for a series of Coastal Resilience and Adaptation Workshops, spearheaded by three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. Tribal leaders, resource managers, community planners, and scientists explored strategies to adapt to these unprecedented changes.The workshop series brought together 14 Organizing Partners 34 Tribes, 15 State & Federal Agencies, and a total of more than 200 participants to meet in four regional...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
The Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ABSI LCC) is a self-directed partnership whose mission is to promote coordination, dissemination, and development of applied science to inform conservation of natural and cultural resources in the face of climate change and other landscape scale stressors. The ABSI region is one of the most remote and inaccessible areas within the national LCC network. As a result, access is both limited and expensive. The use of “Platforms of Opportunity” is one collaborative approach that allows researchers to collect valuable data that otherwise would not be possible. Unfortunately, the is no single resource available that contains information about planned...
This project will expand abundance & distribution models for seabirds, currently underway in Aleutian Is region (USFWS-funded project under Survey, Monitoring & Assessment program) to the greater ABSI-LCC region, and integrate 2013 seabird surveys into the analysis. In particular, this expanded effort would first focus on the North Bering Sea/Bering Strait/southern Chukchi region, which has greatest potential for increased vessel traffic and development. Using at-sea survey data, colony data, and environmental parameters, Tern Again Consulting (Dr. M. Renner) is developing seasonal species-specific models of seabird distribution in the Aleutian Islands region for use in a shipping risk assessment. The resulting...
The occurrence of Potentially Toxic Elements (PTEs) in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is of major concern for the sensitive ecosystems and the humans and aquatic flora and fauna in this region. Specifically, the Aleutian volcanic arc within the ABSI LCC is of interest because it exists along the ocean and atmospheric pathways for the transport of these and other contaminants and pollutants that are derived from other locations, such as Asia. Assessing the distribution of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in the Aleutian volcanic arc (within the ABSI LCC) is necessary in order to document the natural and anthropogenic sources of such elements that are utilized as micro-nutrients by aquatic wildlife, in some cases biomagnify,...
This project will engage researchers from the University of Idaho to assist with a set of analysis tasks that will improve understanding of seabird population dynamics and environmental drivers at a regional scale based on prior survey efforts that have been focused at a colony scale. Specifically, we envision the development of a population model for a couple of index species like murres and kittiwakes, including evaluation of spatial clustering of populations that co-vary, in order to: 1) asses implications of covariates with identified mechanisms and appropriate temporal (pre-breeding condition, summer, rearing, overwinter survival, etc.) and spatial scales; 2) evaluate the feasibility of combining seabirds into...
Accidental introductions of rodents present one of the greatest threats to indigenous island biota. On uninhabited remote islands, such introductions are most likely to come from shipwrecks. Here we use a comprehensive database of shipwrecks in Western Alaska to model the frequency of shipwrecks per Aleutian and Bering Sea island, taken as a proxy for the likelihood of rodent introductions, using physical variables, and the intensity of nearby fishing traffic and activity as predictors. Using data spanning from 1950 to 20114, we found that shipwrecks were particularly common in the 1980s to early 2000s, with a major peak in wrecks during the late 1980s. Amount of fishing activity within 5 km of an island was the...
Forage fish play a vital role in marine ecosystems by funneling biomass and energy from lower trophic levels to higher marine vertebrates, including commercial fish, seabirds and marine mammals. Often it is useful to investigate factors influencing forage fish populations from the bottom up, and is equally fruitful to monitor the status of predators that influence them from the top down. Seabirds are conspicuous, highly mobile consumers of forage fish that go to great distances and depths to locate ephemeral prey. They can be effective samplers of regional food webs, providing a valuable complement to traditional fisheries sampling. We used the diet of Tufted Puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) to characterize forage...
The Aleutian archipelago is an area that is rich in cultural history. Information about cultural sites and artifacts exists in a variety of formats including peer-reviewed publications, agency reports, and other records. The purpose of this project is to: (1) develop GIS data layer(s) of cultural sites that can be used in vulnerability assessments; and (2) develop an annotated bibliography of literature about cultural resources that can help guide future management and research in the region.
In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather, have resulted in risks to human lives, infrastructure damage, threats to valuable natural resources, and disruption of hunting, fishing, and livelihoods.Leaders from the Aleutians to the Chukchi Sea came together for a series of Coastal Resilience and Adaptation Workshops, spearheaded by three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. Tribal leaders, resource managers, community planners, and scientists explored strategies to adapt to these unprecedented changes.The workshop series brought together 14 Organizing Partners 34 Tribes, 15 State & Federal Agencies, and a total of more than 200 participants to meet in four regional...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aleutian Bering Sea Islands LCC data.gov, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
Assigning a numerical rank to an introduced species is an objective, quantifiable way to describe their relative impacts, and ranks are a valuable prioritization tool for land managers. We applied the Invasiveness Ranking System previously developed by the Alaska Natural Heritage Program to evaluate introduced species known to occur on Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. This system uses sixteen criteria grouped into four categories to assess invasiveness: distribution, biological characteristics and dispersal ability, ecological impacts, and feasibility of control. Answers to individual questions are assigned a point value and the points are used to calculate subranks for each of the four sections. Each section is...
The distribution and abundance of small, schooling forage fish (e.g., sandlance, capelin) in Alaska is knownfrom small-scale directed studies, but mostly inferred from incidental catches in large-scale trawl surveysthat were not designed (by gear or location) to sample forage species. In contrast, seabirds are conspicuous,highly mobile, samplers of forage fish that go to great distances (100+ km) and depths ( 200m) to locateephemeral prey with great efficiency. Thus, data on their dietary habits provides a valuable complement totraditional fisheries sampling. We propose to analyze large diet databases for three abundant seabirds(puffins, murres and kittiwakes) to: 1) characterize forage fish communities in the Gulf...
Partners developed a simulation model to better show how various projections associated with increased marine traffic in the Bering Sea might look in the coming decades. These simulations are able to help communities and managers better understand future patterns of traffic in the Bering Sea region as a whole, and look more specifically at possible changes in key areas of concern like the Bering Strait.Following vessel activity analysis and considering vessel type, transit routes, route timing, routing speed, and ports of call, we developed a novel agent-based, spatially-explicit, baseline model of current marine vessel traffic patterns. We then applied projections about changes in traffic volume from a report by...
In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather, have resulted in risks to human lives, infrastructure damage, threats to valuable natural resources, and disruption of hunting, fishing, and livelihoods.Leaders from the Aleutians to the Chukchi Sea came together for a series of Coastal Resilience and Adaptation Workshops, spearheaded by three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. Tribal leaders, resource managers, community planners, and scientists explored strategies to adapt to these unprecedented changes.The workshop series brought together 14 Organizing Partners 34 Tribes, 15 State & Federal Agencies, and a total of more than 200 participants to meet in four regional...
Activity 1. Quantify viability of corridors using temporal sampling: past, present, future. As large-scale wind patterns change, the viability of flyways in the Pacific hemisphere is likely to change. This project will evaluate the tail/headwind components for flight routes from Alaska to sites in the South Pacific (documented godwit and curlew flight tracks) by sampling 50-year timeslices to determine whether the present climatology is more or less favorable than the past (paleoclimate) periods or the projected future (late 21st century). The project will determine whether other flight corridors may have been more advantageous in the past or future than during the present period.Activity 2. Assessment of optimization...