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Abstract (from Environmental Evidence): Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors, and can affect the growth, development, fecundity, dispersal, and demographic trends of populations. Changes in temperature and precipitation, and resulting shifts in plant phenology, winter severity, drought and wildfire conditions, invasive species distribution and abundance, predation, and disease have the potential to directly or indirectly affect ungulates. However, ungulate responses to climate variability and change are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map protocol aiming to describe the abundance and distribution...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Executive Summary (from USGS Publications Warehouse): Migratory behavior among ungulates in the Western United States occurs in response to changing forage quality and quantity, weather patterns, and predation risk. As snow melts and vegetation green-up begins in late spring and early summer, many migratory ungulates leave their winter range and move to higher elevation summer ranges to access high-quality forage and areas with vegetative cover for protection during fawning. Ungulates remain on these ranges until the fall when increasing snowfall and decreasing temperatures trigger them to migrate back to their lower elevation winter ranges. While researchers have begun to assess the effects of physical barriers...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Modeling interactions between human and ecological systems is needed to identify pathways to meet multiple United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Particularly important is the relationship between biodiversity, ecological processes, and ecosystem services. However, current models tend to ignore impacts of biodiversity on ecological processes. Existing models capture impacts of socio-economic activities on biodiversity or ecosystem services, but critically, links between biodiversity and ecosystem services are only weakly incorporated in most projections and hence in policy design. Knowledge of these relationships has improved, but is scattered across the literature, as are models addressing each component....
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Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala...
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Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this...
The pervasive and accelerating impacts of climate change on ecosystems and species are making it increasingly difficult for natural resource managers to determine how and where to use limited staff time and funding for conservation. The identification and management of climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, is one climate adaptation strategy. We held remote workshops, meetings, and webinars with partners and stakeholders to develop regional lists of natural resource priorities in the northeastern and southwestern United States. In the Northeast, we developed maps of habitat suitability gain and loss and climate change refugia for 9 species (including 4 plants, 2 birds,...
Grassland birds in North America have declined sharply over the last 60 years, driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To determine the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we conducted a systematic review of relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. Based on 124 independent studies, we used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity...
Observed links between parasites, such as ticks, and climate change have aroused concern for human health, wildlife population dynamics, and broader ecosystem effects. The one-host life history of the winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) links each annual cohort to environmental conditions during three specific time periods when they are predictably vulnerable: spring detachment from hosts, summer larval stage, and fall questing for hosts. We used mixed-effects generalized linear models to investigate the drivers of tick loads carried by moose (Alces alces) relative to these time periods and across 750 moose, 10 years, and 16 study areas in the western United States. We tested for the effects of biotic factors (moose...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Under climate change, ecosystems are experiencing novel drought regimes, often in combination with stressors that reduce resilience and amplify drought’s impacts. Consequently, drought appears increasingly likely to push systems beyond important physiological and ecological thresholds, resulting in substantial changes in ecosystem characteristics persisting long after drought ends (i.e., ecological transformation). In the present article, we clarify how drought can lead to transformation across a wide variety of ecosystems including forests, woodlands, and grasslands. Specifically, we describe how climate change alters drought regimes and how this translates to impacts on plant population growth, either directly...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Ungulates, or hoofed mammals such as elk, deer, and moose, occupy a diversity of habitats across North America, from Canada’s high arctic to the deserts of Mexico. Ungulates play an important ecological role, helping to regulate processes such as nutrient cycling in forests and grasslands, through their grazing activities. They are also economically and culturally important, providing recreational and subsistence hunting opportunities and non-consumptive, aesthetic values. Yet throughout their range, ungulates face numerous anthropogenic and environmental threats that have the potential to impact populations and their ability to move across the landscape. Of these threats, an improved understanding of the effects...
Abstract (from BioScience): Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services Understanding the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Ungulates in North America Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains Understanding the Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Ungulates in North America The Missing Link: Incorporating the Role of Biological Diversity into Projections of Ecosystem Services