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This working group hosted stakeholder discussions at SE CASC Regional Science Symposium on using social science research to inform coastal resilience challenges and decision making. They are also leveraging existing efforts and stakeholder connections to understand needs/gaps and opportunities for coastal resilience in the region.
Rural disaster recovery governance focuses on the actions that governments take to address the immediate economic, environmental, and infrastructure needs of communities, but does not consider the structural limitations of rural communities, or the transformational power of community leadership. Applying knowledge of community leadership, governance, and social capital in a rural community where social relationships and local-level leadership are central to external interactions provides space to understand the challenges, opportunities, and limitations of disaster recovery governance and leadership systems. To do this, we conduct a secondary thematic analysis of 30 interviews of 32 disaster recovery leaders in...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Environmental Modelling & Software): This study investigated whether a simple model could scale across watersheds and effectively predict runoff-driven nutrient loading as compared to a model with more complex process representation. A lumped model, the Spreadsheet Tool for Estimating Pollutant Load (STEPL), was adapted to use gridded data (STEPLgrid) and applied to 112 coastal watersheds across the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts of the contiguous United States (U.S.) to estimate annual runoff-driven total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads. STEPLgrid outputs were compared to those of the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) model. Relative to SPARROW, STEPLgrid...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Springer): Nursery habitats promote the survival of juveniles to the adult population and are often targeted by conservation policies and restoration practices. Managers must choose where to focus limited resources, which is complicated when juveniles utilize multiple habitats. This is particularly applicable to the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) population in North Carolina, USA, which uses three main habitats, low salinity ephemeral Ruppia maritima seagrass beds, high salinity mixed-species seagrass beds, and shallow marsh detrital habitat (SDH). Spatial variation in early juvenile blue crab density and size-class of blue crab instars (2.2–20 mm) was quantified within the Albemarle-Pamlico estuarine...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The purpose of this working group is to evaluate how researchers can best support further integration of climate change considerations into the 2025 revisions of State Wildlife Action Plans.
Abstract (from Water Resources Research): Large dams degrade the river’s health by heavily regulating the natural flows. Despite a long history of research on flow regulation due to dams, most studies focused only on the impact of a single dam and ignored the combined impact of flow regulation on a river network. We propose a new Dynamic Flow Alteration Index (DFAI) to quantify the local and cumulative degree of regulation by comparing the observed controlled flows with the naturalized flows based on a moving time horizon for the highly regulated Colorado River Basin. The proposed DFAI matches closely to dam’s localized regulation for headwater gages and starts to diverge as we move downstream due to increase in...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The Global Change Graduate Fellows Program is designed to train the next generation of global change scientists by providing financial, scientific, and professional development support for graduate students who are interested in multi-disciplinary research. They come together across disciplines to discover, collaborate, and share their knowledge with diverse stakeholders. Additionally, students need to be dedicated to making the science related to climate change better, where better means more true, of a greater impact, or, as our land grant mission dictates, more ethical and just. This program is sponsored by the USGS Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and NC State University. Applicants must be an NC...
Abstract (from WileyOnline): Stakeholders fundamentally shape the success of wildlife management, yet little is known about how one of the most important stakeholder groups, wildlife agency decision makers, view emerging conservation challenges. Wildlife agency decision makers collectively shape how wildlife conservation unfolds in North America, but their perspectives are generally absent in the literature. Challenges including climate change, conservation funding models, and wildlife disease make understanding how wildlife decision makers view the future of wildlife conservation essential. We interviewed 48 directors and supervisory board members of wildlife agencies in the southeast United States from July 2019...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Water Resources Research): Extreme floods, including those expected to become more frequent in a warming world, may impact nutrient metabolism in streams. However, flood impacts on spatial and temporal variability of nutrient dynamics on large rivers (e.g., fourth order and higher) have been understudied. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew provided a unique opportunity to evaluate nitrate retention and processing on the Lumbee River, a blackwater stream in southeastern North Carolina. The 3,000+ km2 watershed received as much as 400 mm of rain in 48 hr as the storm moved across the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Resulting floods in the watershed were the largest on record, based on more than 80 years of continuous...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This working group has Developed map data products and methods briefs on open space recreation access, wildpollinator habitat, and recreational birding. They also created ecosystem services maps and data products on forestand coastal habitats for NC natural and working lands assessment.
Abstract (from Journal of Ecology): Forest encroachment into savannas is a widespread phenomenon, the rate of which may depend on soil conditions, species composition or changes in stand structure. As savanna specialist trees are replaced by generalist species, rates of stand development may increase. Because generalists can persist in forests, they are likely to grow more quickly and survive longer in dense stands, compared to savanna specialists. Furthermore, the faster growth rates of generalists may allow them to overtop and outcompete savanna specialists, causing rapid species turnover. We measured growth and survival of 6,147 individuals of 112 species of savanna and generalist tree species over a period...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have shown the impacts of urban planning and climate change separately, but little attention has been given to their combined impact on long-term urban water demand forecasting. Here we coupled land and climate change projections with empirically-derived coefficient estimates of urban water use (sum of public supply, industrial, and domestic use) to forecast water demand under scenarios of future population densities and climate warming. We simulated two scenarios of urban growth from 2012 to 2065 using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) framework. FUTURES...
Abstract (from Frontiers): Small Island Nations, often comprised of Atolls, are at considerable risk of climate change impacts from sea-level rise to coral acidification to increasing cyclone intensity; understanding how they will change in the coming century is vital for climate mitigation and resiliency. However, the morphology of atolls are not well quantified or summarized. In this work, we calculate modern atoll morphometrics on a global scale including 3,786 motu and 593 reef flats on 154 atolls. Temporal composites of Landsat imagery are created for 4 years (2015–2018), and are classified into motu, reef flat, open water/lagoon via unsupervised classification. Morphometrics, including widths, lengths, and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This working group has engaged Florida Water and Climate Alliance stakeholder-scientist network to develop a learning network to effectively co-develop user-relevant climate data, tools and information.
Abstract (from Marine Ecology Progress Series): Heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNANs) play a pivotal role as consumers of picoplankton, remineralizers and carbon vectors, yet knowledge on how prey quantity and quality affect HNAN physiology remains limited. In a series of grazing experiments using an uncharacterized member of the HNAN assemblage, we found that growth (μ) and ingestion rate (IR) varied when offering heterotrophic bacteria (HB), Synechococcus spp. (Syn), Ostreococcus lucimarinus (Ost) or a combination of all 3 prey types. Highest average μ rates (1.8 d-1) were detected on HB at densities of ~106 cells ml-1 and maximum IR on Syn (485 pg C d-1) at ~106 cells ml-1. Independent of prey type, flagellate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Climate Change Ecology): Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature. To demonstrate the importance of considering precipitation-driven phenology in ecological studies, we present a case study wherein we construct a mechanistic population model for a rare subtropical butterfly (Miami blue butterfly, Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri) and use a suite...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This working group has coordinated a session at the SEAFWA Annual Conference; presented a list of regional species of greatest conservation need developed with SEAFWA Wildlife Diversity Committee. They also conducted interviews with wildlife agency directors to determine how climate uncertainty influences management and policy decisions.
Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
ABSTRACT There are calls from cultural resources professionals, academics, and diverse stakeholders for multivocality, co-creation of knowledge, and inclusion of local and traditional input in the management of cultural resources situated on public lands. Yet, associated communities often have little control or influence on management of their heritage sites beyond mandated consultation, particularly for archaeological sites. In a US National Park Service (NPS) context, managers are guided by standardized criteria, existing data management systems, and policy- and eligibility-based funding streams. The influences of these criteria, systems, and policies are particularly powerful when managers are prioritizing action...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation


map background search result map search result map Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia Global Change Fellows Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia Global Change Fellows