Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest

To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Downscaling, Federal, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, bcsd, climate, climate change, downscale, downscaled climate projections, dynamical, ecosystem, gcm, maca, model, modeling, multiple, roms, simulation, statistical, water, wrf, Fewer tags

Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region: Temperature and Precipitation

The goal of this project was to examine how temperature and precipitation could change by the mid 21st century over the greater Los Angeles region. Major findings for temperature are: (1) large variability in the magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model projections over LA, but all predict warming; (2) warming is smaller over the ocean and coastal zone, but larger in the mountain areas and inland; (3) ensemble mean warming in all parts of the domain is significantly outside the range of historical variability, meaning the change will be detectable. Major findings for precipitation are: (1) large variability in both sign and magnitude exists among downscaled global climate model precipitation projections...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Climate and Land-Use Change, Completed, Data Visualization & Tools, All tags... Data Visualization & Tools, Projects by Region, Projects by Region, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Fewer tags

Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1

In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags... Coastal, Coastal Habitats, Completed, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Extreme Weather, Federal, Humboldt Bay, Morro Bay, Newport Bay, Projects by Region, Pt. Mugu, SF Bay/Delta, San Pablo Bay, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Tijuana River, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, animals, assessment, birds, climate change, coastal, conservation, dem, downscale, dynamical, gcm, geomorphology, gis, hydrology, intertidal, management, marsh, model, multiple, nearshore, plants, sea level rise, sediment, sf bay, shoals, slr, storm, tidal, vegetation, vulnerability, wrf, Fewer tags

The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S.

Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA, CASC, CO, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Federal, Fire, Fire, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, NM, NV, OR, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Southwest US, UT, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptive capacity, assessment, climate change, connectivity, ecosystem, ensemble, exposure, fire, forests, forests, management, model, multiple, prism, sensitivity, trees, vegetation, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment, wildfire, woodlands, woodlands, Fewer tags

Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest

Native Americans are one of the most vulnerable populations to climate change in the United States because of their reliance upon the natural environment for food, livelihood, and cultural traditions. In the Southwest, where the temperature and precipitation changes from climate change are expected to be particularly severe, tribal communities may be especially vulnerable. Through this project, researchers sought to better understand the climate change threats facing the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe of northwestern Nevada. Researchers found that the Tribe’s vulnerability to climate change stems from its dependence on Pyramid Lake, which may experience reduced water supply in the future. This will potentially have negative...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Federal, Fish, All tags... Fish, Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous Peoples, Multiple, NV, Paiute Tribe, Projects by Region, Pyramid Lake, Pyramid Lake, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools for Managers, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science, Social Science, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, TEK, Tribes and Tribal Organizations, Tribes and Tribal Organizations, Truckee River, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptation, climate, climate change, collaboration, culture, decision framework, downscale, economic, hydrology, management, native american communities, resilience, social, threshold, tradition, tribal, vulnerability, water, Fewer tags

Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest

Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service. The goal of this project was to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers evaluated the current and future breeding ranges...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ, Birds, Birds, CA, All tags... CASC, CO, Federal, Multiple, NM, NV, OR, Other Wildlife, Other Wildlife, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, UT, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, biodiverstiy, birds, birds, climate change, downscale, gcm, management, model, multiple, natureserve, reptiles, reptiles, species distribution, species distribution model, statistical, vulnerability assessment, Fewer tags

Improving Groundwater Supply Forecasting in the Southwestern U.S.

Changing climate conditions have been identified as a major threat to the sustainability and availability of water resources in the Southwestern U.S. Long-term decreases in precipitation can lead to reductions in regional groundwater levels and loss of groundwater storage in aquifers for some communities. Reduced precipitation can also lead to lower water levels in streams and losses in the vegetation that grows alongside riverbanks. The goal of this project was to identify how hydrologic systems in the Southwest might respond to changes in climate and the degree to which this response is dependent on the characteristics of the hydrologic system. To do this, researchers developed a tool that simulates how quickly...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ, CASC, Completed, Desert, All tags... Federal, Projects by Region, Riparian, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Upper San Pedro Basin, Upper Verde Watershed, Verde River Basin, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, multiple, plants, Fewer tags

Using Climate and Water Models to Examine Future Water Availability and Biodiversity in California and the Great Basin

As the predicted impacts of climate change are becoming more apparent, natural resource managers are faced with the task of developing climate adaptation plans. These managers need state-of-the-art, scientifically based information upon which to base these management plans and decisions consistently across California and the Great Basin. This project applies historical, current, and projected climate data to a regional water model to examine water availability, biodiversity, and conservation. Analysis of this climate and hydrology data is expected to help managers understand areas in the region and landscape where the effects of climate change are expected to be the most profound. The study also addresses how the...

Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA, CA Central Valley, CA-wide, CASC, All tags... Completed, Federal, Great Basin, Multiple, Other Water, Other Water, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, air temperature, basin characteristics, climate change, climatic water deficit, downscale, et, gcm, great basin, hydrology, model, precipitation, recharge, runoff, snowpack, stream flow, tools, vulnerability, website, Fewer tags