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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Alaska CASC > FY 2020 Projects ( Show all descendants )

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Alaska’s high-latitude, arctic landscape places it at the front lines of environmental change. Factors such as rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and associated shifts in growing degree days, summer season length, extreme heat, and the timing of spring thaw and autumn frost are rapidly changing Alaska’s ecosystems and associated human systems. The ability of Alaska’s land managers and communities to predict these changes will profoundly affect their ability to adapt. The State of Alaska recognizes the scope and magnitude of these changes and has made it a priority to ensure anticipated change is incorporated into local and regional planning. This project will involve collaboration with agency...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McCarthy Road in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve. In light of this, resource managers need highly accurate, localized climate information to assess and plan for future landslide hazards. This project addresses concerns and management implications in these focus areas with emerging issues that have been outlined...
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In the last decade, the annual area burned by wildfires in Alaska has doubled relative to any of the previous four decades, and the current frequency of fire is unprecedented over the past 1,200 years. Wildland fires are one of the main contributors to long-term changes in the structure and function of boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Although fire is a necessary component of regulating these ecosystems, it also poses a hazard to humans when uncontrolled. Currently, fire managers use the Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to perform calculations that can assist in field management of fires, but the only version of this tool that is available depends on network access, which poses a significant limitation for...
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In the Gulf of Alaska, streams will experience more dramatic low water events, interspersed with larger and potentially more frequent high flow events in the coming decades. Reduced stream flows are likely to occur due to diminished snowpack and seasonal droughts, while higher flow events are likely to occur with more frequent storms and rain-on-snow events. These changes are likely to influence the growth trajectories of juvenile salmon, such as coho salmon and chinook salmon, that live up to two years in freshwater before migrating to the ocean. Stream flows can influence juvenile salmon growth by modifying food availability, water clarity, temperature, and predation risk. This high-resolution study examines...
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Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach...
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Since the early 1970s, the negative impacts of small aircraft activity on local wildlife and subsistence hunting have been an ongoing concern expressed by rural communities in Arctic Alaska. More specifically, these communities have expressed concern that aircraft activity from industry, commercial (sport) hunting, research, and tourism is disturbing caribou by altering their behavior and movement and, for rural communities who rely on the subsistence hunting of caribou for food and resources, this change in behavior has reduced hunting opportunities. Residents of rural communities and agencies who manage human-wildlife interactions have requested more involvement of local stakeholder groups in the process addressing...
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Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners)...
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Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated...
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Nearshore marine ecosystems in Alaska and Hawai‘i rely heavily on organic materials and nutrients delivered by rivers and streams. It is hypothesized that the magnitude and timing of stream flows influences this delivery of materials to coastal ecosystems. However, despite previous research on the topic, there is still considerable uncertainty about how stream flow may influence these land-to-water (“ridge-to-reef") linkages, and how climate change induced shifts in runoff may ripple across ecosystem boundaries to influence estuary and nearshore marine ecosystems and species of cultural and commercial importance (e.g., Pacific salmon, gobies, and coral reefs). This project is a collaborative study to examine...
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Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of expected future climate conditions in these regions is essential for natural resource managers to make informed climate adaptation decisions amid a changing environment. The Pacific Islands and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Centers (PI and AK CASCs) are uniquely positioned to address these issues as they have previously...
    map background search result map search result map Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska From Land to Sea: How Will Shifts in Stream Flow Influence Delivery of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Organisms to Alaska and Hawai‘i Nearshore Marine Ecosystems? Applying Climate Change Modeling to Selected Key Factors in Ecosystem Health and Adaptation in Alaska Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Applying Climate Change Modeling to Selected Key Factors in Ecosystem Health and Adaptation in Alaska A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska From Land to Sea: How Will Shifts in Stream Flow Influence Delivery of Nutrients, Organic Matter, and Organisms to Alaska and Hawai‘i Nearshore Marine Ecosystems? Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience