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Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
During the second half of the 1990’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) production increased dramatically nationwide to represent a significant new source of natural gas. In recent years, the exploration and development of CBM has been under intense scrutiny in many parts of the country. The heightened concern of environmental issues related to present-day production practices - including water production, hydraulic fracturing, pipeline construction, storage facilities, water impoundment and disposal facilities, underground injection activities, compressor station operations, etc. – increases the importance of using practices and mitigation strategies that facilitate resource development in an effective, timely, and environmentally...
During the second half of the 1990’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) production increased dramatically nationwide to represent a significant new source of natural gas. In recent years, the exploration and development of CBM has been under intense scrutiny in many parts of the country. The heightened concern of environmental issues related to present-day production practices - including water production, hydraulic fracturing, pipeline construction, storage facilities, water impoundment and disposal facilities, underground injection activities, compressor station operations, etc. – increases the importance of using practices and mitigation strategies that facilitate resource development in an effective, timely, and environmentally...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
During the second half of the 1990’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) production increased dramatically nationwide to represent a significant new source of natural gas. In recent years, the exploration and development of CBM has been under intense scrutiny in many parts of the country. The heightened concern of environmental issues related to present-day production practices - including water production, hydraulic fracturing, pipeline construction, storage facilities, water impoundment and disposal facilities, underground injection activities, compressor station operations, etc. – increases the importance of using practices and mitigation strategies that facilitate resource development in an effective, timely, and environmentally...
This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility...
As electricity demand increases, policymakers must make decisions about which energy resources will meet future demands. Much of the recent literature has focused on the contribution of new coal power plants to carbon emissions (Milford et al., 2005; Milford et al., 2007; MIT 2007). However, policymakers and industry are increasingly interested in job creation and economic development analyses to understand the full impacts of new electricity generation projects.1 Additionally, economic development impacts are often a critical piece in building public support for wind power projects. The purpose of this research is to look at the specific factors that drive wind-power-related economic development and to better understand...
As electricity demand increases, policymakers must make decisions about which energy resources will meet future demands. Much of the recent literature has focused on the contribution of new coal power plants to carbon emissions (Milford et al., 2005; Milford et al., 2007; MIT 2007). However, policymakers and industry are increasingly interested in job creation and economic development analyses to understand the full impacts of new electricity generation projects.1 Additionally, economic development impacts are often a critical piece in building public support for wind power projects. The purpose of this research is to look at the specific factors that drive wind-power-related economic development and to better understand...
Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Because exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose...
During the second half of the 1990’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) production increased dramatically nationwide to represent a significant new source of natural gas. In recent years, the exploration and development of CBM has been under intense scrutiny in many parts of the country. The heightened concern of environmental issues related to present-day production practices - including water production, hydraulic fracturing, pipeline construction, storage facilities, water impoundment and disposal facilities, underground injection activities, compressor station operations, etc. – increases the importance of using practices and mitigation strategies that facilitate resource development in an effective, timely, and environmentally...
As electricity demand increases, policymakers must make decisions about which energy resources will meet future demands. Much of the recent literature has focused on the contribution of new coal power plants to carbon emissions (Milford et al., 2005; Milford et al., 2007; MIT 2007). However, policymakers and industry are increasingly interested in job creation and economic development analyses to understand the full impacts of new electricity generation projects.1 Additionally, economic development impacts are often a critical piece in building public support for wind power projects. The purpose of this research is to look at the specific factors that drive wind-power-related economic development and to better understand...
During the second half of the 1990’s Coal Bed Methane (CBM) production increased dramatically nationwide to represent a significant new source of natural gas. In recent years, the exploration and development of CBM has been under intense scrutiny in many parts of the country. The heightened concern of environmental issues related to present-day production practices - including water production, hydraulic fracturing, pipeline construction, storage facilities, water impoundment and disposal facilities, underground injection activities, compressor station operations, etc. – increases the importance of using practices and mitigation strategies that facilitate resource development in an effective, timely, and environmentally...