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Leonard Pearlstine


Email: leonard_pearlstine@nps.gov
Restoration of the Florida Everglades, a substantial wetland ecosystem within the United States, is one of the largest ongoing restoration projects in the world. Decision-makers and managers within the Everglades ecosystem rely on ecological models forecasting indicator wildlife response to changes in the management of water flows within the system. One such indicator of ecosystem health, the presence of wading bird communities on the landscape, is currently assessed using three species distribution models that assume perfect detection and report output on different scales that are challenging to compare against one another. We sought to use current advancements in species distribution modeling to improve models...
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The Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA) is a series of connected Bayesian networks that models the landscape-scale response of indicators of Everglades ecosystem health to changes in hydrology and salinity on the landscape. Using the uncertainty built into each network, it also produces surfaces of vulnerability in relation to user-defined ‘ideal’ outcomes. This dataset includes the code used to build the modules and generate outputs of module outcome probabilities and landscape vulnerability.
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Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way, using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational water stage forecast providing 6-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Water Conservation Areas, Big Cypress National Preserve, Everglades National Park, Big Cypress Seminole Indian Reservation, and Miccosukee Federal Indian Reservation and Leased...
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These data are summaries and comparisons of the EverForecast outputs from May 2021. EverForecast is a near-term hydrologic forecasting application that provides daily water depth forecasts across the freshwater Everglades (Pearlstine et al. 2020); water depth forecasts are then used to run species models. Here, we examine the EverForecast outputs of five species models: (1) American alligator production probability (i.e., habitat suitability index (HSI)), (2) Florida apple snail (native) population model (EverSnail), (3) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow probability of presence model (EverSparrow), (4) small fish density model, and (5) wading bird probability of presence model (EverWaders). These species model outputs...
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